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Sat. 3/6 Derby preps   Triple Crown

Started Mar-6 by princeofdoc; 1203 views.
Gerh

From: Gerh

Mar-7

I would be very happy to have him at 11-1.He will probably be 2-1 in the Derby.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Mar-7

I thought Crowded was impressive, and I'm glad to have a futures ticket on him at a good price.....love to see him win the Wood!

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Mar-8

Given the way the race played out, and the issues each horse had to overcome coming into the race, who looks to move forward the most in your opinion?

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Mar-8

Highly Motivated, without a doubt......terrible trip, ran on well.  Though Crowded can certainly improve as well....

In reply toRe: msg 8
TexSquared

From: TexSquared

Mar-8

Prep race photos this weekend:

Gotham Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct
http://www.horse-races.net/library/gotham21-results.htm

Tampa Bay Derby (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs
http://www.horse-races.net/library/tampa21-results.htm

San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita
http://www.horse-races.net/library/sahcp21-results.htm

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Mar-8

Thought you might say that. I thought he might have been a little short. As for his trip, I didn't think it was as bad as everyone says. He didn't finish as strong as I expected. His trouble was early enough for him to recover, I thought. I'm biased towards CT. I thought for his second race, he took a big step, and still may be a bit green. I think he wasn't crazy about passing Weyburn, and was happy just catching him. He got the lead, lost it, and then was coming back at the end. They need to work on that in his works.

In reply toRe: msg 10
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Mar-9

I remember a while back we used to talk "angles" that pointed to the true contenders in the Kentucky Derby. Nowadays, trainers have largely abandoned the old way, and many of those angles have gone by the wayside. No more Apollo jinxes, or even beyer figures are discussed much. Remember when we looked for those 105+ beyers in preps? They seemed to be an extinct species. Enter Life Is Good! He was awarded a 107 beyer figure for his San Felipe, which he won pretty much without being asked. Sure didn't look to have distance limitations unless you count his drifting out, which may have been simply a loss of focus due to sheer boredom with the lack of competition. Is this guy really that good?

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Mar-9

IMHO he has the Pedigree to be that good.

Bellamy Road had a big number and fizzled in the Derby. A good one turn Prospect

and he didn't have a classic distance  pedigree Imo, 

What bothers me Baffert has him and it gets old, Baffert against the World.

There are 5 or 6 Very Good Prospect Pedigrees this year that have Classic distance

Pedigrees with different running styles.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Mar-9

Yeah, this Baffert thing is getting old, especially since I wonder about him using the Super Chicken Super Sauce! It will make me want to root against the horse, which I hate to do, because I'm always anxious to see the next great one!

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Mar-9

Bill Casner doesn't name names but this Op-Ed has stood the test of time.  The top end of the sport is where the sophisticated cheats operate.  They can afford the cutting edge stuff for which no current tests exist.

Excerpt:

"One drug that has decades of continuous use is EPO. There is no doubt that it has been used at the highest level. There has never been a horse to test positive for it post-race because everyone knows that it can only be detected in the first 24 to 36 hours after administration (requiring a sophisticated expensive test) and it is always given days or even weeks out. The only way it will ever be caught is with Out-of-Competition Testing, which is virtually non-existent in North American horse racing. "

Another excerpt:

"Today, the selection and availability of designer drugs produced in clandestine labs is unlimited. Computer models have given the underground chemist the ability to modify a known drug, whether anabolic, narcotic or stimulant, tweaking the molecule and making small doses even more powerful, and guess what–it doesn't test because it hasn't been identified and there is no organized effort to develop the test. "

The entire column is here & worth the read.  There is no reason to doubt Casner. 

Happily, the HOrse Racing Intergrity & Safety Act is now law & the USADA will be in charge of anti-doping.  That outfit has the experience dealing with high-end undetectables.  They freeze samples for 10 years so the tests can catch up with the cheats & they perform out of competition testing.

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/op-ed-bill-casner-shared-archive/

We deserve  clean sport as bettors & so do the honest trainers who do not cheat.

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