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KY Derby Leaderboard   Triple Crown

Started Apr-4 by Wintertrian; 4887 views.

From: princeofdoc


I think a few will drop out, as you suggested.....leaving room for the ones in 21st-25th place.  I believe that Proxy will be eligible, and maybe even Hidden Stash.

I am certainly not as confident as you regarding a Baffert horse.  If Concert Tour prevails Saturday, and does so convincingly, I believe he will be the favorite, though not by much, over Essential Quality.  Probably 8-5 vs. 2-1.  And he would have a big chance, again, depending upon his performance Sat.  I don't see much in that race to compete successfully against him, though I will be pulling for Roman Centurian....hoping that RC was a scratch simply because he was not as ready as the trainer wanted him to be.

I suppose Caddo River could do better, or Get Her Number.....but Concert Tour looks like he should roll.  I really would like to be wrong, to be honest....and if CR is unleashed this time, we could have at least an honest pace.


From: Wintertrian


princeofdoc said...

though I will be pulling for Roman Centurian..

Me,too.......Medina Spirit already beat him twice though?

Callaghan at Oaklawn.....I dunno.   All his graded stakes wins are in California.   There will be pace, he can get 2nd. 

ARK Derby = Asmussen, Pletcher or Baffert affair.   Sometimes a Casse or Cox if they run.  

Diodoro should have run Keepmeinmind in the ARK Derby.  He wins everything at OP with his top riders though.  You know, I would never claim a Diodoro horse who has raced're likely to be handed a cripple.  

OP Stats: those are the big 3 there:
Rank Trainer Name Starts Starters 1st 2nd 3rd Earnings Win % Top 3
1 Steven M. Asmussen 143 -- 35 25 21 $2,791,164 24% 81 -- --
2 Robertino Diodoro 95 -- 29 15 7 $945,790 31% 51 -- --
3 Brad H. Cox 68 -- 19 11 11 $2,182,804 28% 41 -- -

Rank Jockey Name Starts 1st 2nd 3rd Total $ Win % Top 3
1 Ricardo Santana, Jr. 186 42 28 30 $2,721,856 23% 100 54%
2 Francisco Arrieta 162 29 26 26 $1,585,940 18% 81 50%
3 David Cabrera 222 27 34 32 $1,488,270 12% 93 42%
4 Florent Geroux 89 24 8 7 $1,682,980 27% 39 44%
5 Ramon A. Vazquez 131 20 23 20 $1,017,577 15% 63 48%
5 David Cohen 136 20 18 16 $936,699 15% 54 40%

8 Martin Garcia 64 11 12 8 $1,068,584 17% 31 48%

In reply toRe: msg 1



As Crowded Trade is unlikely to run in the Derby(good decision), I have to find another horse. Since Godolphin won't have Prevalence in there, I think Rebel's Romance may be coming 2 America. LOVE his breeding! It's nice not to worry about the distance. This horse can run 3 miles! It's just whether he's fast enough(and I think he is), and whether he likes the CD surface. I should be able to get double figures on him, especially if Concert Tour wins the Arkansas Derby impressively.

  • Edited April 6, 2021 2:50 pm  by  RAESFAN

From: Oldbettowin


Raes.  I just came here to see if there was any chatter about RR lol.  That run in the UAE Derby was spectacular!  He checks a lot of boxes for me breeding-wise also.  One worry is that he could get too far back in the derby—he got pretty far back vs some fairly pedestrian early splits in Dubai but boy what a turn of foot.  

Are they for sure coming to America?



Once you factor in the timing from the gate, i think the UAE Derby pace was a lot faster than it may seem. I had to dig into some old Brohamer forum posts to come up with these estimates to convert the times:

Rebel's Romance, UAE, 4f: 47.48, 6f: 71.32, 8f: 96.27, 9f: 108.77

Panadol, UAE, 4f: 46.58, 6f 70.83, 8f: 96.33, 9f: 109.16

These numbers would put Panadol right with the Hot Rod Charlie and Rock Your World at the 4f mark.

  • Edited April 6, 2021 9:06 pm  by

From: Oldbettowin


Very interesting.  Thanks cubs!

That actually makes me feel a little better about him.  Those figures are similar to what he’s going to see on the lead in the derby and it’s good to see that he at least has enough early speed to keep from getting way back.


From: smartyslew


Thanks, good to know, can you compare the tracks to Santa Anita using your data.
Do you need the runups ?

Rebel finished faster than Rock Your World, and Rock started faster both hit 8f in 96.27
in my eyes they both looked awesome. HRC finished fast.

3 interesting trips.

Rock Your World
22.42, 23.69, 24.53, 25.63, 12.90
2f) 22.42, (4f)46.11,(6f) 70.64, (8f)96.27,  (9f)109.17
Hot Rod Charlie
23.10, 23.94, 24.21, 25.13, 18.68 -3/16 f
2f)23.10, (4f) 47.04, (6f) 71.25, (8f) 96.38,  115.06



To factor in the runups, it looks like you could add 0.96 seconds to Hot Rod Charlie's opening 1/4 and 1.03 seconds to Rock Your World's.

On raw gate time, that would put Panadol about 4-5 lengths, and Rebel's Romance 9-10 lengths, back of Rock Your World at 4 furlongs. 


From: smartyslew


Ok, thanks, remember to look how far past the finish line the 4 did.

Good cadence, geared down if at all and distance past the finish.