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KY Derby Leaderboard   Triple Crown

Started Apr-4 by Wintertrian; 4886 views.
In reply toRe: msg 1
RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-6

As Crowded Trade is unlikely to run in the Derby(good decision), I have to find another horse. Since Godolphin won't have Prevalence in there, I think Rebel's Romance may be coming 2 America. LOVE his breeding! It's nice not to worry about the distance. This horse can run 3 miles! It's just whether he's fast enough(and I think he is), and whether he likes the CD surface. I should be able to get double figures on him, especially if Concert Tour wins the Arkansas Derby impressively.

  • Edited April 6, 2021 2:50 pm  by  RAESFAN
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-6

Raes.  I just came here to see if there was any chatter about RR lol.  That run in the UAE Derby was spectacular!  He checks a lot of boxes for me breeding-wise also.  One worry is that he could get too far back in the derby—he got pretty far back vs some fairly pedestrian early splits in Dubai but boy what a turn of foot.  

Are they for sure coming to America?
 

 

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Apr-6

Once you factor in the timing from the gate, i think the UAE Derby pace was a lot faster than it may seem. I had to dig into some old Brohamer forum posts to come up with these estimates to convert the times:

Rebel's Romance, UAE, 4f: 47.48, 6f: 71.32, 8f: 96.27, 9f: 108.77

Panadol, UAE, 4f: 46.58, 6f 70.83, 8f: 96.33, 9f: 109.16

These numbers would put Panadol right with the Hot Rod Charlie and Rock Your World at the 4f mark.

  • Edited April 6, 2021 9:06 pm  by  cubs.fan
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-6

Very interesting.  Thanks cubs!

That actually makes me feel a little better about him.  Those figures are similar to what he’s going to see on the lead in the derby and it’s good to see that he at least has enough early speed to keep from getting way back.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-6

Thanks, good to know, can you compare the tracks to Santa Anita using your data.
Do you need the runups ?

Rebel finished faster than Rock Your World, and Rock started faster both hit 8f in 96.27
in my eyes they both looked awesome. HRC finished fast.

3 interesting trips.
--

Rock Your World
22.42, 23.69, 24.53, 25.63, 12.90
2f) 22.42, (4f)46.11,(6f) 70.64, (8f)96.27,  (9f)109.17
--
Hot Rod Charlie
23.10, 23.94, 24.21, 25.13, 18.68 -3/16 f
2f)23.10, (4f) 47.04, (6f) 71.25, (8f) 96.38,  115.06
cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Apr-7

To factor in the runups, it looks like you could add 0.96 seconds to Hot Rod Charlie's opening 1/4 and 1.03 seconds to Rock Your World's.

On raw gate time, that would put Panadol about 4-5 lengths, and Rebel's Romance 9-10 lengths, back of Rock Your World at 4 furlongs. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-7

Ok, thanks, remember to look how far past the finish line the 4 did.

Good cadence, geared down if at all and distance past the finish.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-7

smartyslew said...

Rebel finished faster than Rock Your World, and Rock started faster both hit 8f in 96.27
in my eyes they both looked awesome. HRC finished fast.

3 interesting trips.
--

Rock Your World
 
22.42, 23.69, 24.53, 25.63, 12.90
 
 
2f) 22.42, (4f)46.11,(6f) 70.64, (8f)96.27,  (9f)109.17
--
 
Hot Rod Charlie
23.10, 23.94, 24.21, 25.13, 18.68 -3/16 f
 
2f)23.10, (4f) 47.04, (6f) 71.25, (8f) 96.38,  115.06

I was looking at some final Fs and it looks like Known Agenda, Greatest Honour, Hot Rod Charlie, OBesos, Proxy and Essential Quality all had very fast final figs, too.   Does that shore up with anything you guys have?  the first 2 had the best times in the chart I looked at but they are not my own figs. 
 

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Apr-7

Which #4? Essential Quality?

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Apr-7

The top 3 from Bluegrass and Known Agenda came home in under 37 from what I've seen. I need to go back and look at O Besos.

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