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KY Derby Leaderboard   Triple Crown

Started Apr-4 by Wintertrian; 4924 views.
cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Apr-6

Once you factor in the timing from the gate, i think the UAE Derby pace was a lot faster than it may seem. I had to dig into some old Brohamer forum posts to come up with these estimates to convert the times:

Rebel's Romance, UAE, 4f: 47.48, 6f: 71.32, 8f: 96.27, 9f: 108.77

Panadol, UAE, 4f: 46.58, 6f 70.83, 8f: 96.33, 9f: 109.16

These numbers would put Panadol right with the Hot Rod Charlie and Rock Your World at the 4f mark.

  • Edited April 6, 2021 9:06 pm  by  cubs.fan
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Apr-6

Very interesting.  Thanks cubs!

That actually makes me feel a little better about him.  Those figures are similar to what he’s going to see on the lead in the derby and it’s good to see that he at least has enough early speed to keep from getting way back.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-6

Thanks, good to know, can you compare the tracks to Santa Anita using your data.
Do you need the runups ?

Rebel finished faster than Rock Your World, and Rock started faster both hit 8f in 96.27
in my eyes they both looked awesome. HRC finished fast.

3 interesting trips.
--

Rock Your World
22.42, 23.69, 24.53, 25.63, 12.90
2f) 22.42, (4f)46.11,(6f) 70.64, (8f)96.27,  (9f)109.17
--
Hot Rod Charlie
23.10, 23.94, 24.21, 25.13, 18.68 -3/16 f
2f)23.10, (4f) 47.04, (6f) 71.25, (8f) 96.38,  115.06
cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Apr-7

To factor in the runups, it looks like you could add 0.96 seconds to Hot Rod Charlie's opening 1/4 and 1.03 seconds to Rock Your World's.

On raw gate time, that would put Panadol about 4-5 lengths, and Rebel's Romance 9-10 lengths, back of Rock Your World at 4 furlongs. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-7

Ok, thanks, remember to look how far past the finish line the 4 did.

Good cadence, geared down if at all and distance past the finish.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-7

smartyslew said...

Rebel finished faster than Rock Your World, and Rock started faster both hit 8f in 96.27
in my eyes they both looked awesome. HRC finished fast.

3 interesting trips.
--

Rock Your World
 
22.42, 23.69, 24.53, 25.63, 12.90
 
 
2f) 22.42, (4f)46.11,(6f) 70.64, (8f)96.27,  (9f)109.17
--
 
Hot Rod Charlie
23.10, 23.94, 24.21, 25.13, 18.68 -3/16 f
 
2f)23.10, (4f) 47.04, (6f) 71.25, (8f) 96.38,  115.06

I was looking at some final Fs and it looks like Known Agenda, Greatest Honour, Hot Rod Charlie, OBesos, Proxy and Essential Quality all had very fast final figs, too.   Does that shore up with anything you guys have?  the first 2 had the best times in the chart I looked at but they are not my own figs. 
 

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Apr-7

Which #4? Essential Quality?

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Apr-7

The top 3 from Bluegrass and Known Agenda came home in under 37 from what I've seen. I need to go back and look at O Besos.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-7

I don’t know if RR is coming. I know Godolphin for a long time insisted on doing things their own way. Now they campaign liberally in the US, but I don’t think they would give away a legitimate opportunity to still get it done the old way. I’m sure that would’ve sweet. I sure hope so they bring him. 
 

As far as the speed of the race goes, from what I understand, there was no run up this year. That makes the time look even better. Also, I don’t know if he has to run that way. The jock said the horse wanted to run earlier, and that he had to “contain him”.  Remember no one thought Mishriff would be so forwardly placed against the Big 2 from America. He has some miler pedigree to go back to, with all that route breeding.

RAESFAN

From: RAESFAN

Apr-7

There are several horses fitting the profile of recent forwardly placed Derby winners. Fast early, slow late races at 9f. Rebel’s Romance will certainly come running. The question is, how close can he stay early on.

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