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Triple Crown Series   Triple Crown

Started Apr-18 by smartyslew; 19704 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Apr-19

You are smart to use your eyes, not paper data.  

 

princeofdoc said...

Known Agenda's race in the Sam Davis, coming in 5th.  Watch the race, see just how full of run he was.  Not a surprise how well he ran next out.  Not sure how I feel about his chances in the Derby, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ran well

That's the luck part.  Field of 20, most look to be mid-pack runners this year, not a whole lot of upfront speed demons left, so that means traffic.  Any horse can run into a wall of horses and get blocked, even if they are the best horse in the race.  

I usually stick with the "quality" speed, and trackers, and sometimes a closer to wipe up in case everyone tires in the stretch.   Midpack runners give me *worries* in a field this large but will put 2 on my ticket. 

In reply toRe: msg 14
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-19

9 top closing 3f time for 9 f preps,   and 3 3/16 f time for 9.3/16 preps
Bris   Raw time  with the  bris number LP number last prep
 last 3 f time, La Derby last 3 3/16 f, Ruby last 2.5 f,
------------------Raw Time --------Bris late pace number
Essential Quality     36.32                    106
Highly Motivated    36.43                     105
Known Agenda        36.66                    112
Hidden Stash         37.47                       94
Soup And Sandwich  37.71                   101
Like The King        37.87 aw                   95
Bourbonic             37.89                       109 wood
---------
O besos                  43.21            9 3/16 f          96
Midnight Bourbon 44.01          9 3/16 f             95
In reply toRe: msg 16
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-20

Remember preps Like The Louisiana Derby with the 9 3/16 distance is still a Grade 2 event .

I suggest use your own judgment if you think the race is on par with the grade one preps

and the numbers speed figures , some speed figures are adjusted for that.

ChiefsCrown

From: ChiefsCrown

Apr-20

I think with all the speed this race has entered, Essential Quality E/P4 and Known Agenda P3 are mostly must use horses. Brisnet is my go to pp source. Too much info there to digest.

In reply toRe: msg 18
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-21

Looks like Baffert gets special treatment again.

Hozier was Taken off the Derby Board a few days ago at the Official site

and we had a few defections and King Fury was moved up to number 21 .

Today Hozier was back on listed #21, one ahead  of King Fury, anybody know why?

Get on it Kenny McPeek..

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-21

the tiebreaker to get into the Kentucky Derby will be earnings in non-restricted stakes races, whether or not they are graded. In the event of a tie, those horses will divide equally the points they would have received jointly had one beaten the other. 

  • Edited April 21, 2021 5:07 pm  by  DogsUp
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-21

yes we Know, when he was 25th he took him off the list. Medina Spirit must not be that good

to put a last place (6th) Ark horse, others with more money earnings can jump in and bump him off

and play his game,  apparently he didn't think he would get in they have until Tuesday to do it. plus 2 that are in may not go.

SameSteve G

From: SameSteve G

Apr-21

Not to mention the 38% chance of something else happening before the Derby.   Haha...

I keep some stuff to myself.  :)

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-21

grinningsee_no_evil I Think that would be a good idea :)  Haha

DogsUp

From: DogsUp

Apr-21

Any number of horse can be scratched before Friday (the double Oaks bet).

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