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Triple Crown Series   Triple Crown

Started Apr-18 by smartyslew; 24007 views.
In reply toRe: msg 172
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-3

Belmont Historical performance numbers leader board
Without my 1/8 pole Chart
1st 4 in order ,cold superfecta.
--
1st  Essential Quality           --
2nd  Hot Rod Charlie           -1 behind 
3rd  Rombauer                   -2
4th  Known Agenda            -6
-------
5th  Overtook                    -9
6th  Rock y. World             -11
7th  Bourbonic                  -12 behind first
8th  France Go                   N/A
In reply toRe: msg 173
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-4

  ↵

Belmont Contenders pedigree score.

The lowest knocks from historical guidelines for 12f win.

---

Essential Quality   7   1st   best angles first in Belmont

Overtook             11

Rock Your World   11

Known Agenda     11

Rombauer            16

Bourbonic            22

France Go De Ina  22

Hot Rod Charlie    26   8th  2nd place, scored 2nd in performnce angles

In reply toRe: msg 174
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-4

2021 Belmont contenders historical performance and pedigree  totals
low score has the best number and least knocks and strikes.
1st is the best score to win the belmont and all scores is for the Win only .
-
 This combined score is used to see who has the best chance to get 12 furlongs
combining Performance and Pedigree Historical  scoring to project the 12f winner.
--
1st Essential Quality       10  yup the winner
2nd Known Agenda         20
3rd Rombauer                21
4th Overtook                 23
5th Rock Your World       25
6th Hot Rod Charlie        30
7th Bourbonic                 37
8th France Go De Ina      41
-----
In reply toRe: msg 175
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-4

I still like Essential Quality to Win This race , he is the last one left from the 4 I liked at the Start of the Year. I can't bet him at the odds I think he will go off at. I will use him in my exotics. He is my pick

and I don't think anyone can beat him and when I feel this strong  about a horse I use in Picks,

Doubles,  and of course Exactas, tri's, Supers, etc. Sometimes in 8 horse fields when I 

Strongly like a horse I'll wheel him in a tri .. him with all/with all . It depends on how many horses

are single digits in the field and the final odds and right now 5 are single digits and 2-1

on EQ is to low. $1 cost is all/ with 7 x6 =$42 per $1 unit . I might do a longshot play

with Overtook ,he could be ready to wake up. If I make money playing other races

I might use that for the Longshot play.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-4

It doesn’t bother you that an api-ran has never won the Belmont?  I think if I bet it at all it’s just going to be another $20 on Rombauer lol.  And even then probably only if he goes off at least 4-1 or so.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-4

Not at all I like this better Whats in the 5 generations
I use before The Sire and Bms Nicks its what is fed from the Engine room

the 6th and 7th Generation In this case all of the sires and Mares from family

branches 13c and family 2f  9 of one and 7 of the other within the 5 generations

8 from family 1x is a bonus  and seven (7) foundation of family 8 and 5 meets the

Standards I use. Also I like at least 2 daughters Of big red in the window of time

today, but there is 3 daughters of big red all in the 4th generations Dams of Sires all in the 3rd

Generation API, Gone West, Storm Cat all 3 from different Sire Lines, 2 on the dam side one on the Sire line, one in the Bms line, Storm Cat bred to the 3rd  Dam 1x who also traces  to Princequillo and LaTroienne.

for me this trumps  Sire/Bms nicks. when the occasion comes up.

Essential Quality  Tapit/ Mr P 1x(8)3o,13c(9) 7 2f,              (7)

cubs.fan

From: cubs.fan

Jun-5

Wasn't confident on 2nd/3rd, so made my third largest win bet ever on EQ. loved 9/5 as they loaded, disappointed in 6/5. Trakus data supported the tri, but I tried to get creative with the 8 in all spots.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-5

The odds were all wrong for my strategy, see my message 173 for performance numbers

My pedigree angles stopped me from using those top 4 , Hot rod Charlie was fit like the winner

He was last on my ped score and I kept looking at 12f , and thought it was to far for Itm

But the 4 fittest came in. I Didn't bet EQ it was so stupid. I passed. Congrats on your win !

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-5

Essential Quality showed the field what happens when you have a superior quality 12F horse on the track.  

I bet he'd do fine on the grass?  They should send him over to some classy races on the lawn over the pond.    

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Jun-5

I can never understand the big drop in odds AFTER the race goes.....seems like with everything computerized, prices should be immediate.

I found a bet on line Thursday that had EQ at 2.60, so I made my bet then, quite happily.....

The 7.50-1 on the exacta was rather low, but the 21-1 on the tri was better....and the 60-1 on the super was very good, all things considered

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