This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
Latest Jul-19 by smartyslew
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Here is a angle I look at when I'm putting my tickets together after the draw.
I like to look at all of the May foals to see their progress from January to Derby Day
They are a little bit behind in their Growth and need to show they are Improving.
If I have to choose between 2 horses and they are close in my scoring ,I'll pick the Youngest ,
especially to choose between May and Jan. or Feb. foals.
This year only one May Foal : 5/15 *foal dam 9 yrs old-3rd crop 1st winner
There is a Sire I have been waiting for to get to The Sire Brood mare age , and that age differs from the amount of
Mares they get to cover each year and the age they were when they started their fun cycle.
also its just my projection to be a possible elite BM sire and not really knowing his best mates sire lines or
Corinthian has one in this years crop Like A King 6-3-2-1 itm all 6 races. keep an eye on him.
Jeff Ruby Stakes is perplexing, because look at how badly Tarantino did, as well as Gretzky the Great, who were the co-favorites in that race. And both Like The King and Sainthood had trouble in that race, yet ran 1-2. Only way around this is to watch works at CDX because this race isn't, on paper, going to tell you much. FWIW I had both horses in my mid-April picks which was a while ago.... and they were also contest picks for me in the Derby contest that cubs is running.
the video told a story not on the chart and the close told a lot about both horses
and tarantino was a throw out race and those 2 looked a lot better to me than Gretzky the great.
good luck in the contest.
smartyslew said...good luck in the contest.
its not really a contest. Nobody really picked their horses for the derby in order. I play a similar contest on anotehr group, the master of cermonies has 4 categories and he puts the horses in each category you can choose only ONE from. Usually, my top 3 horses are always concentrated in only one of those categories, so I only get to pick one.... then I pretty much "make up" my other picks out of thin air because none of the categories he designs have horses I would touch with a 10 foot pole. LOL
This one here is more like a pick a square in a football lottery that as the game goes on you are welcome to a square nobody else is taking. But thank you just the same.
It is a fun pasttime and I'm glad cubs thought of it. Kinda something to lift the spirit and is lighthearted.
For years I ran the 1 to 20 pool draw at work for $1, $5, and $10 for the Derby !
I was nice if your horse was injured you got your money back if I started the contest
a week or longer before the derby, I was a shift worker had to cover 4 shifts and every year was different
to cover the race. A couple guys that have passed, gave me hell because they got hooked on Horse Racing
all in fun of course. One of them loved me later when OTB opened in the nineties, and we live in Gary Stevens
Country and almost everybody in there Bet on Thunder Gulch, even Stevens Grand Parents were in there
We had to come back on Monday with a chit to collect our money, The guy that ran the OTB, A texas hold em
buddy of mine, was told he had the highest percentage payout in the whole network betting on the Derby.
I wonder if some of those guys are going to skip the first pre Derby Party since there chances of getting lucky
went from 38% to zero.
Derby point leader board 4/24/21
Name, Horse conduit Tail female number, most of the female families in 5 generation,
next is Derby Points, then Birthdate, Dams Age, Dams crop number for the entrant,
2nd row: N= Derby Nick, if applical, last race distance, next is 3 speed numbers
Con = Conduit Mare number of Derby winners . many have zero.