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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 140701 views.
pianot

From: pianot

May-17

I think this race might have some value. The black eyed susans.

  • Edited May 17, 2022 8:33 pm  by  pianot
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-17

Preakness Entrants listed Tail female family  with Their BMSire any stamina Chefs in Their line
the 2nd Dams Sire line Stamina Chefs if applical and any Stamina Chefs in 5 generations
also listed the Highlighted female families positions within 5 generations and look for
7 or more female families position and the Tail female families is listed by their name
look for more than 6 positions, that means another line amplifies the tail female family.
Of course a very high number is a positive for any tff within 5 generations ,look for RF
or Xfactor Sires and Mares with the high numbers of a female families.
----
Any stamina/soundness influence, regardless of where it falls in the pedigree is a good thing.  The influences...
LDK is Lemon drop Kid 3L
--

Armagnac A4 :BMS LdK 3l, KingmamboCS, 5 Lh, Slew, tf 13c,1x,3l up middle L in last,4th back
15 13c,6 a4,4 3L,2nd Dam Herbager CS, Sire Nijinsky CS, Lasix last race
-------
Creative Minister  8d, :BMS Tapit, Nijinsky CS, UnBridled  L last 2
6 3o,6 8d, 5 8c,
--------
Early Voting P/N 9b ;BMS Tiznow 26, Pia Star P, Herbarger CS sire side  L free
7 17b,7 4m, 6 9b,5 13c, 2nd Dam Big Red &SSide 3rd Dam Chieftan,
--------
Epicenter 21a : Bms Candy Ride 13c, Flow of Arg. Excellence Herbager CS,Vandale (P)
1r 7,21a 6,5 4m, 2nd Dam: Sadlers Wells CS, Ela MAna Mou  P, Busted S,    L free
---
Fenwick 1t,:BMS Malibu Moon 2s,Sire side Nodouble CP   L2,3,4 back
1t 6, 5 19c,5 2s, 5 10a,5 13c
-----
Happy Jack 3o,rf,  : BmS Tapit, Nijinsky CS, Unbridled
12 3o,5 26,3rd Dam Sire Vaguely  Noble CP,  L 1st race of 5
---
Secret Oath(F) 9f, rf: BMS Quiet American, Princequillo IS, 23% Fappiano
9 9f,9 16a,7 1r,5 16g, sire side Le Fab P,    L free last 4, L once 4th race
--------
Simplification 16g rf : BMS Candy Ride13c,Flow of Arg. Excellence Herbager CS,Vandale (P
9 12c,7 1r,6 16g,2nd Dams S Herbager CS, L free
------------
Skippylongstocking 10a :BMs War Chant Princequillo IS, L 2,3 back.
13 10a,5 3g,4 23b, 4 19c,
-----------
sovereign1

From: sovereign1

May-17

Then Skippy it is! sunglasses

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-17

I haven't looked the field over. I thought it might be a good betting race.

The one you like is the probable chalk.  12 others to play with for exotics.

It should be a good betting race.

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-18

I was just having a little fun.  Hopefully he stays at 20-1.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-18

More Preakness Data:

Must have run in the Derby.  The six that didn't, were Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini and Red Bullet. Cloud Computing,
Swiss SkyDiver(F), RomBauer

-----
Carrying the RAN sire line is a positive factor.
Fenwick, Early Voting, Secret Oath, Armagnac, Skippylongstocking
---
Beyer figure of 103 or higher in at least one of last two starts. 17 of the last 18 Derby winners qualified on this factor. Prairie Bayou was the only Preakness winner of the last 18 that did not qualify on this factor.
none Epicenter 102 just missed
---
Won last start before the Kentucky Derby. :
Secret Oath, Epicenter,
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Carry War Admiral in the X passing position on the dam side for all colts or on either side for a filly because she gets two X chromosomes
Secret Oath, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting, Happy Jack.
Armagnac, Skippylongstocking
-
La Troienne In a passing position not noted above with War Admiral
Simplification, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting, Happy Jack
Armagnac, Skippylongstocking
-
Carry Princequillo in The X passing Positions
Secret Oath, Fenwick, Early Voting, Armagnac
Skippylongstocking
-
final Q qualifiers 25.39 or faster
Simplification 25.05 Derby, Creative Minister 24.13,  5.97 1/16
Secret Oath 25.38  1/8 12.96  Oaks, Early Voting 24.37,1/8 12.35
Skippylongstocking 24.31 1/8 12.23 Wood
------
Speed numbers   -------Bris---Beyer--Equibase
--
Simplification              98        96 ---- 101
Creative Minister        101       92       108
Fenwick                        63       88         54
Secret Oath                 103       94       105
Early Voting                111       96       102
Happy Jack                   81       83         81
Armagnac                     97       93         92
Epicenter                     101     102       105
Skippylongstocking    107      98          97
----
 E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 104/ 93 SPEED 104 
*Early Voting 95 104/111 111, *Skippylongstocking  88 97/111 107 
Just Missed Secret Oath(f) 101 109/93 103
* Wood Souped up track imo
----
Back Speed : 
111 Early Voting 107 Skippylongstocking 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Secret Oath 97 Happy Jack 97 Armagnac 74 Fenwick
-
Speed Last Race :
111 Early Voting 107 Skippylongstocking 103 Secret Oath 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Armagnac 81 Happy Jack 63 Fenwick
--
Early Pace Last Race:
103 Epicenter 101 Secret Oath 95 Early Voting 95 Armagnac 91 Creative Minister 90 Simplification 88 Skippylongstocking 84 Fenwick 76 Happy Jack
--
Late Pace Last Race :
111 Early Voting 111 Skippylongstocking 102 Creative Minister 93 Secret Oath 92 Armagnac 88 Simplification 86 Epicenter 65 Happy Jack 38 Fenwick
-
Average Distance Surface Speed :
Early Voting 111,Creative Minister 101,Skippylongstocking 101,Epicenter 100
Simplification 95, Secret Oath 94, Armagnac 94, Happy Jack 89, Fenwick 69
-
Days Off :Early Voting 42, Skippylongstocking 42, Fenwick 42.
--
Rasmussen Factor; 
Secret Oath, Simplification, Creative Minister, Happy Jack
-----
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-18

Exaggerator was the only KY Derby place horse who won the Preakness in 28 years.   However, sometimes I play with stats like that though, as the race this year was unusual and not "formful" in the true sense, so some may consider Epicenter the "winner" for use with historical stats, which would mean Zandon would have no chance in the Preakness, but he's not running so it's a moot point.  

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-18

Beaten derby favorites haven’t fared much better in the Preakness.  Over the last 25 years:

1997 Captain Bodgit 2nd in the derby, 3rd in the Preakness

1998 Indian Charlie 3rd in the derby, dnr in the Preakness

1999 Excellent Meeting/General Challenge 5th/11th in the derby, Excellent Meeting pulled up in the Preakness

2001 Point Given 5th in the derby, won the Preakness

2002 Harlan’s Holiday 7th in the derby, 4th in the Preakness

2003 Empire Maker 2nd in the derby, dnr in the Preakness

2005 Bellamy Road 7th in the derby, dnr in the Preakness

2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 7th in the derby, 2nd in the Preakness

2009 Friesan Fire 18th in the derby, 10th in the Preakness

2010 Lookin at Lucky 6th in the derby, won the Preakness

2011 Dialed In 8th in the derby, 4th in the Preakness

2012 Bodemeister 2nd in the derby, 2nd in the Preakness

2019 Improbable 5th in the derby, 6th in the Preakness

2020 Tiz the Law 2nd in the derby, dnr in the Preakness

2021 Essential Quality 4th in the derby, dnr in the Preakness

Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-18

Preakness winners that ran in the derby and where they finished last 25 years (11 of 19 won the derby):

Silver Charm 1st

Real Quiet 1st

Charismatic 1st

Point Given 5th

War Emblem 1st

Funny Cide 1st

Smarty Jones 1st

Afleet Alex 3rd

Curlin 3rd

Big Brown 1st

Lookin At Lucky 6th

Shackleford 4th

I’ll Have Another 1st

Oxbow 6th

California Chrome 1st

American Pharoah 1st

Exaggerator 2nd

Justify 1st

War of Will 8th 

 

pianot

From: pianot

May-18

I think Epi might break this pattern.

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