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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 140698 views.
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

May-18

Preakness winners that ran in the derby and where they finished last 25 years (11 of 19 won the derby):

Silver Charm 1st

Real Quiet 1st

Charismatic 1st

Point Given 5th

War Emblem 1st

Funny Cide 1st

Smarty Jones 1st

Afleet Alex 3rd

Curlin 3rd

Big Brown 1st

Lookin At Lucky 6th

Shackleford 4th

I’ll Have Another 1st

Oxbow 6th

California Chrome 1st

American Pharoah 1st

Exaggerator 2nd

Justify 1st

War of Will 8th 

 

pianot

From: pianot

May-18

I think Epi might break this pattern.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-19

Thanks  I know Empire Maker and Tiz the Law skipped the Preakness and both finished 2nd in the derby.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

I just love We The People.  

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

I think so too.  Absolutely.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

I'm liking Skippy more and more!    sunglasses    And Secret Oath of course.  

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

May-19

Wow, smarty.  Your data is so fabulous.  Thank you for the food for thought!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-19

thank you, You are Welcome, and good luck !

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-19

4 Northern Dancer, 5  Mr P entrants
1st & 4th Mr P, 2nd &3rd Nor Dancer
-
Nor Dancer Sire line 
Simplification, Creative Minister, Happy Jack,
Epicenter
----
Mr P, Nor Dan, Seattle Slew at least one in the Sire or Bms position
2 of these 3 is   better .
----
Di 4.00 and up:
Secret Oath 8.60  24 dosage pts  neutral
-
Di 2.00-2.99:
Fenwick 2.50., Happy Jack 2.38  positive
-----
cd points over 1.00: 
none
--
Bris improve  numbers  Positive
-
Early Voting 86  91  111 last 3 races
Skippylongstocking 77  85  94 107
-----
(close) Epicenter 90  93 98 101 101
--
Equibase Improving Numbers or not backwards  positive
-
Skippylongstocking 93-96-101
Creative Minister 84-88-108
Early Voting 79-81-102
Armagnac  60-83-92
Epicenter 79-95-97-97-97-97-105
-
Beyer improving Numbers positive
-
Creative Minister 76-82-93, Early Voting 76-87-96
Armagnac 55-83-93
Skippylongstocking 79-88-91
-
Variant equaled or better  positive
-
Creative Minister last race 94 +2  92 beyer
Secret Oath missed last 2 races  94 beyer last
Early Voting last 0 variant +8      96 beyer
Skippylongstocking 104 zero variant  91 beyer
89 +3     88 beyer
Epicenter Last Derby 89  -3  100 beyer,
104+5   , beyer 102
101 +3  98 beyer
Equaled or beat Variant next 3 races    beyer 88-87-80
-
Cmp s/s index 1.00 or less positive
all but Creative Minister
---.
a high cmp stamina number of 1.06 or higher must have
20 dosage points.   negative
Creative Minister 1.53 , 16 points
--
the ones below 1.00: 20 dosage pts or more positive.
-
Fenwick  28 pts, Happy Jack 22 Pts
-
Graded Stks  winners  positve
-Simplification 4 gr races 1 g2 win
Secret Oath 4 gr races, g1 win ,g3 win
Early Voting 2 gr races g1 2nd,g3 win
Epicenter 4 gr races 2 g2 winsg1 2nd, g3 2nd
--
No graded stakes races  negative
Creative Minister
-
reine 5 gen & tff 10  positive
Creative Minister 12, Happy Jack 17,
Fenwick 13, Secret Oath 10
Early
...[Message truncated]
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-21

Preakness Stakes
--

pedigree and historical guidelines on the track scoring
-
1 Early Voting     14
2 Epicenter        13
3 Skippylongstocking  12
4 Secret Oath    11
5 Armagnac , Creative Minister 10
_______
Performance on the track scoring very close
-----
1st  Epicenter
2nd Early Voting, Creative Minister
3rd Simplification, Secret Oath, Skippy
-
 

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