This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping.
Latest 11:47 AM by smartyslew
Latest Aug-11 by DogsUpWired
Latest Aug-11 by smartyslew
Latest Aug-11 by RAESFAN
Latest Aug-7 by TexSquared
Latest Aug-2 by SameSteve G
Latest Aug-2 by SameSteve G
Latest Jul-31 by smartyslew
Latest Jul-30 by Wintertrian
Latest Jul-24 by TexSquared
Latest Jul-24 by DogsUpWired
Latest Jul-16 by Plus2lbs
Latest Jul-15 by RAESFAN
How Message 1136 data did in the Preakness. data for the Win.
Early Voting 12 Positive angles from this list
-Must have run in the Derby. The six that didn't, were Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini and Red Bullet. Cloud Computing,
Swiss SkyDiver(F), RomBauer
Winner Early Voting did not run in The Derby, Fresh horse worked out
Add Early Voting to this list, a recent trend.-----Carrying the RAN sire line is a positive factor. A winnerFenwick, Early Voting WINNER, Secret Oath, Armagnac, Skippylongstocking---
Beyer figure of 103 or higher in at least one of last two starts. 17 of the last 18 Derby winners qualified on this factor. Prairie Bayou was the only Preakness winner of the last 18 that did not qualify on this factor.
none Epicenter 102 just missed. No qualifiers in This Race EV a 96, Now 2 Prairie Bayou & E V,---
Won last start before the Kentucky Derby. : NO 2nd in last
Secret Oath, Epicenter,
Carry War Admiral in the X passing position on the dam side for all colts or on either side for a filly because she gets two X chromosomes
Secret Oath, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting, Happy Jack. Yes for EV
La Troienne In a passing position not noted above with War Admiral- yes
Simplification, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting WON, Happy Jack
Carry Princequillo in The X passing PositionsSecret Oath, Fenwick, Early Voting WINNER, ArmagnacSkippylongstocking
-final Q qualifiers 25.39 or faster
Simplification 25.05 Derby, Creative Minister 24.13, 5.97 1/16Secret Oath 25.38 1/8 12.96 Oaks, Early Voting 24.37,1/8 12.35- WinnerSkippylongstocking 24.31 1/8 12.23 Wood------Speed numbers -------Bris---Beyer--Equibase
Bris high Early Voting 111 Winner, Beyer Epicenter 102 -2nd, Equibase Creative Minister 108 3rd
Top Number for each Got the Trifecta..
Simplification 98 96 ---- 101Creative Minister 101 92 108Fenwick 63 88 54Secret Oath 103 94 105Early Voting 111 96 102Happy Jack 81 83 81Armagnac 97 93 92Epicenter 101 102 105
Skippylongstocking 107 98 97----
E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 104/ 93 SPEED 104
*Early Voting 95 104/111 111- WINNER, *Skippylongstocking 88 97/111 107
Just Missed Secret Oath(f) 101 109/93 103
* Wood Souped up track imo
----Back Speed :111 Early Voting WINNER107 Skippylongstocking 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Secret Oath 97 Happy Jack 97 Armagnac 74 Fenwick-Speed Last Race :111 Early Voting-WINNER 107 Skippylongstocking 103 Secret Oath 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Armagnac 81 Happy Jack 63 Fenwick--Early Pace Last Race:103 Epicenter 101 -2nd Secret Oath 95-4th Early Voting 95-First, Armagnac 91 Creative Minister 90 -3RDSimplification 88 Skippylongstocking 84 Fenwick 76 Happy Jack--Late Pace Last Race :111 Early Voting 111 WINNER Skippylongstocking 102 Creative Minister 93 Secret Oath 92 Armagnac 88 Simplification 86 Epicenter 65 Happy Jack 38 Fenwick-Average Distance Surface Speed :Early Voting 111- First,Creative Minister 101,Skippylongstocking 101,Epicenter 100Simplification 95, Secret Oath 94, Armagnac 94, Happy Jack 89, Fenwick 69-
Days Off :Early Voting 42 Winner, Skippylongstocking 42, Fenwick 42. Resting Worked out this year.
--Rasmussen Factor; Not the Winner
Secret Oath, Simplification, Creative Minister, Happy Jack
How Message 1124 Data did in the Preakness for the Win:
good angle For Early Voting He had both Angles. Conduit 9b Idle Fancy B classification
has 2 Preakness Winners.
: WINNER P/N E8 Early Voting had 2 Previous Long Nick Preakness Winners
MR P / Man O War (S) is the long Nick
Early Voting: Fappiano/In reality is shorter nick
Smarty Jones 2004 : Mr P/ Inreality Short Nick
Real Quiet 1998 : Fappiano/ Inreality Short Nick
Note 2nd and 3rd Place Epicenter and Creative Minister Had Long Nicks also
6 entrants Had nicks/
Preakness previous Condit Mare Tfemale Family
Early Voting CMP Conduit 9b Idle fancy Hill Prince 1950
Skippy was the only other one with this
2022 Preakness 5/21/22 Race 13: by post position
Who said Belmont Stakes !
4 or more Tf Families in 5 generation chart listed,: at least 4 horses counted
For each TF family listed within 5 generations, 1st family listed Tail Family 6 or more
if more than 6 listed it got help somewhere else within 5 generations
the same for Sire family tf more than 5 and Bms Line if more than 4.
2nd Family listed Sire Family 5 or more 3rd Family listed BMSire Family 4 or more.
also listed families with at least 4 horses or more within 5 generations.
How They did last year >
last Q on Dirt 11/8 mile or longer.last race only 25.40 or better--
Essential Quality WON24.98,Hot Rod Charlie 2nd 25.04Bourbonic 25.30,Known Agenda 4th24.98,Overtook 25.06Rombauer3 rd 24.40
1 pt-turn time Q only
This from last year:
Good stuff. I wish EV was running in the Belmont. He looks like the class of this crop.
Thanks, It would be nice to see him in a 12f race, I think the BC is the target now.
Female families 8 and Females family 5 are compatible marriages within a pedigree
That works in the Belomont Stake. for example Native Dancer 5f and Raise You 8f gives you Raise A Native 8f
look for both of these families 8 and 5 in a Pedigree.. Here is a list of Family 8 , next message will be family 5.
smartyslew said...Un Ojo 2nd to EV in the Withers races first and Wins The Arkansas Derby and touted by Many because it was a Surprise to many
Nobody touted Un Ojo in the Rebel. If they did, he wouldn't have gone off at 70+ odds.
I played him is that he was the only horse in the field who had actually run 9F --- 2nd in a graded stakes race (Withers). Just seemed logical. Never even had to look at his pedigree or figures.
EV didn't run in the Rebel so he wasn't a consideration. (and Un Ojo didn't run in the Preakness). However, anyone making a "pedigree play" in the Rebel would have put Stellar Tap on the ticket, which would have been a mistake since he ran 9th.
I remember after the KY Derby we all went "looking" for why Mine That Bird won. Before the race, nobody had him. He belonged, but nobody saw it. Thus, looking for why a horse belonged in a race, after the race, isn't part of my handicapping anymore. Becuase there is ALWAYS a reason a horse wins, just that we have to be able to see it BEFORE it happens. :)
Moving on to the Preakness, Creative Minister was basically an unknown horse; AFTER it became widely known that the connections supplemented him for $150K (which included knowing the trainer McPeek had 10% ownership and was also kicking in part of that fee), there were still plenty of people who were asking "who is creative minister? I never heard of that horse" before the race.
Some wagered him based on his 20 point figure leap. (I actually thought that was a BAD sign....huge speed figure leaps often denotes a horse headed for a regreession, same reason I didn't trust EV). Combined with his mare index (way over the limit for classic distance, more speed than stamina) he was never a win candidate for me in the Preakness. If I had not already been "on" him since February, when I saw his work against Rattle N' Roll who was a G1 winner at the time and he just looked better to me and had not even raced yet, I would not have used him at all.
Finally (the problem I always have, from playing Oaklawn daily) is that Bris figures and track variant just don't work most of the time. During the season I experimented using Bris data "by the book". I had from January 22 to May 1st to test it out, so I used that "formula" about 1x a week. I went home with empty pockets. If they worked, more people would have winning trifectas. But, they don't.
I guess if you trust the Bris figures you can go by them. I don't trust them so I don't. That's when I just trust my eyes. Only reason I stayed on CM to run ITM in the Preakness was because it was pretty obvious he had a lot of upside watching his workout before he ever raced in a race at all.
I think post-race analysis should include not just pedigree and Bris figures, but what do we *see*. Sometimes our eyes are right and sometimes wrong. Seeing how easily Mo Donegal mowed EV down in the stretch in the Wood was what made me get off him. Would I do that again? Probably. I win plenty of races using my eyes that way...... and not figures or pedigree. (Stellar Tap in the Rebel had the pedigree......he ran 9th). If Stellar Tap won the Rebel, we would all be sitting here pointing out that "he had the pedigree to win the Rebel". :)
Just sayin', it's never one thing. Or even 2 or 3 things.