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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 139076 views.

From: smartyslew


How Message 1136 data did in the Preakness. data for the Win.
Early Voting 12 Positive angles from this list
Must have run in the Derby.  The six that didn't, were Rachel Alexandra, Bernardini and Red Bullet. Cloud Computing,
Swiss SkyDiver(F), RomBauer   
Winner Early Voting did not run in The Derby, Fresh horse worked out
Add Early Voting to this list, a recent trend.
Carrying the RAN sire line is a positive factor. A winner
Fenwick, Early Voting WINNER, Secret Oath, Armagnac, Skippylongstocking
Beyer figure of 103 or higher in at least one of last two starts. 17 of the last 18 Derby winners qualified on this factor. Prairie Bayou was the only Preakness winner of the last 18 that did not qualify on this factor.
none Epicenter 102 just missed. No qualifiers in This Race EV a 96, Now 2 Prairie Bayou & E V,
Won last start before the Kentucky Derby. : NO  2nd in last
Secret Oath, Epicenter,
Carry War Admiral in the X passing position on the dam side for all colts or on either side for a filly because she gets two X chromosomes
Secret Oath, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting, Happy Jack.  Yes for EV
Armagnac, Skippylongstocking
La Troienne In a passing position not noted above with War Admiral- yes
Simplification, Creative Minister, Fenwick, Early Voting WON, Happy Jack
Armagnac, Skippylongstocking
Carry Princequillo in The X passing Positions
Secret Oath, Fenwick, Early Voting WINNER, Armagnac
final Q qualifiers 25.39 or faster
Simplification 25.05 Derby, Creative Minister 24.13,  5.97 1/16
Secret Oath 25.38  1/8 12.96  Oaks, Early Voting 24.37,1/8 12.35- Winner
Skippylongstocking 24.31 1/8 12.23 Wood
Speed numbers   -------Bris---Beyer--Equibase
Bris high Early Voting 111 Winner, Beyer  Epicenter 102 -2nd, Equibase  Creative Minister 108 3rd
 Top Number for each Got the Trifecta..
Simplification              98        96 ---- 101
Creative Minister        101       92       108
Fenwick                        63       88         54
Secret Oath                 103       94       105
Early Voting                111       96       102
Happy Jack                   81       83         81
Armagnac                     97       93         92
Epicenter                     101     102       105
Skippylongstocking    107      98          97
 E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 94 104/ 93 SPEED 104 
*Early Voting 95 104/111 111- WINNER, *Skippylongstocking  88 97/111 107 
Just Missed Secret Oath(f) 101 109/93 103
* Wood Souped up track imo
Back Speed : 
111 Early Voting WINNER107 Skippylongstocking 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Secret Oath 97 Happy Jack 97 Armagnac 74 Fenwick
Speed Last Race :
111 Early Voting-WINNER 107 Skippylongstocking 103 Secret Oath 101 Creative Minister 101 Epicenter 98 Simplification 97 Armagnac 81 Happy Jack 63 Fenwick
Early Pace Last Race:
103 Epicenter 101 -2nd Secret Oath 95-4th Early Voting 95-First, Armagnac 91 Creative Minister 90 -3RDSimplification 88 Skippylongstocking 84 Fenwick 76 Happy Jack
Late Pace Last Race :
111 Early Voting 111 WINNER Skippylongstocking 102 Creative Minister 93 Secret Oath 92 Armagnac 88 Simplification 86 Epicenter 65 Happy Jack 38 Fenwick
Average Distance Surface Speed :
Early Voting 111- First,Creative Minister 101,Skippylongstocking 101,Epicenter 100
Simplification 95, Secret Oath 94, Armagnac 94, Happy Jack 89, Fenwick 69
Days Off :Early Voting 42 Winner, Skippylongstocking 42, Fenwick 42. Resting Worked out this year.
Rasmussen Factor; Not the Winner
Secret Oath, Simplification, Creative Minister, Happy Jack

From: smartyslew


How Message 1124 Data did in the Preakness for the Win:
good angle For Early Voting He had both Angles. Conduit 9b Idle Fancy B classification
has 2 Preakness Winners.
: WINNER P/N E8 Early  Voting had 2 Previous Long Nick Preakness Winners
MR P / Man O War (S) is the long Nick
Early Voting: Fappiano/In reality is shorter nick
Smarty Jones 2004 : Mr P/ Inreality Short Nick
Real Quiet 1998 : Fappiano/ Inreality Short Nick

Note 2nd and 3rd Place Epicenter and Creative Minister Had Long Nicks also
6 entrants Had nicks/
Preakness  previous Condit Mare Tfemale Family 

Early Voting CMP Conduit 9b Idle fancy Hill Prince 1950
Skippy was the only other one with this

2022 Preakness 5/21/22 Race 13: by post position

Name, Bris Classification, tail female family number
Conduit Classification , Sire/Bms rf =Rasmussen Factor
Nick or Long Nick Sire/Bms line
Nick = Preakness winner Sire/Bms Lines
1 Simplification EP4  16g (IS)Storm Cat/ Candy Ride rf,
Long Nick: Storm Cat/ Fappiano  Shackleford 2011 2f
2 Creative Minister P1 8d (B)  Storm Cat/ Tapit
Long Nick : Nor Dan/ Bold Ruler Louis Quatorze 1996 3m
Real Long Nick: Northern Dancer/ Bold Ruler Summer Squall 1990 3L
3 Fenwick E4 1t (IP)  Curlin/ Malibu Moon
Nick: Curlin/Seattle Slew, Exaggerator 2016 3g
Nick: Mr P/ Seattle Slew,  Funny Cide 2003  6d
4 Secret Oath (F) S2  9f (BP) Arrogate/ Quiet American
WINNER P/N E8 Early  Voting
5 Early Voting  P/N E8 9b (B) Gun Runner/Tiznow 
Long Nick : Mr P / In Reality, Smarty Jones 2004 1x
Long Nick : Fappiano/ In Reality, Real Quiet 1998 4d
conduit Preakness Winner :9b Idle fancy Hill Prince 1950
6 Happy Jack S2  3o  (S)  Oxbow/ Tapit rf
7 Armagnac E5  A4 (BP) Quality Road/ Lemon Drop Kid
8 Epicenter EP5  21A (IP) Storm Cat/Candy Ride
Long Nick: Storm Cat/ Fappiano, Shackleford 2011 2f
9 Skippylongstocking EP3  10a (BS) Curlin/War Chant
Nick: Smart Strike/ Danzig , Lookin at Lucky 2010 9f
Long Nick :  Smart Strike/ North. Dancer , Curlin 2007 19c
Long Nick: Mr P/ Nor Dancer, Hansel  1991 2w
Conduit Preakness Winner 10a Court Dre
...[Message truncated]
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From: smartyslew


Who said Belmont Stakes !

4 or more Tf Families in 5 generation chart listed,: at least 4   horses counted 
For each TF family listed within 5 generations, 1st family listed Tail Family 6 or more
if more than 6 listed it got help somewhere else within 5 generations 
the same for Sire family tf more than 5 and Bms Line if more than 4.
2nd Family listed Sire Family 5 or more  3rd Family listed BMSire Family 4 or more.
also listed families with at least 4 horses or more within 5 generations.

Belmont Stakes key winners tf families in 5 generations
Essential Quality  Tapit/ Mr P 1x(8)3o,13c(9) 7 2f,    Added 6/12/21
Tiz The Law  Tapit/ Tiznow 9e, 8k ,26, 6 3o,
Sir Winston  Dep Minister/ Mr P, 1n,1c, 6 5g,6 10a,4 23b,4 14c
Justify  Scat/Dep Min 1h, 1w, 23b(4), 6 2f-rf*, 5 8c, 4 13c, 4 8f
Tapwrit  Tapit/ In Reality  19,3o,14b,4 2f,5 5g,5 13c, 4 21a,
Creator Tapit/ Priv Acct. 2o,3o, 7 8f,4 1x,4 2f,4 8h, 5 13c,
American Pharoah  Pon/Scat 14,6 21a,19, 4 6d,
Tonalist   Tapit/ Ribot  3L(9), 3o, 5a,6 2f,5 13c, 
Palace Malice   Mr P/ Nureyev 2s,19c,8k, 4 23b,
Union Rags Nor Dan / Mr P, 13b, 12 4m, 2f,5 8f, 5 13c
Ruler On Ice   Mr P/ Alydar 14a,8h,9f,6 8c, 4 9c,
Drosselmeyer  Mr P/Nijinsky 10d,8 9f, 22d, 4 1n,5 8f, 5 13c
Summer Bird  Fappiano/Nor Dan 3o,8 8f,3L,4 1c,
Da Tara     Tiznow/ Ribot  5i (9)26,19, 4 9g,4 9h,
Rags To Riches Api/ Dep. Minister  8f,3L,10a,6 1x,4 2s,4 13c
Jazil    Mr P/ Dep Minister  8f(9) 5c,10a, 4 1x, 4 13c,
Afleet Alex   Mr P/Roberto  5g(10)6 14c, 5g, 4 1h,
Birdstone   Fappiano / Nor Dancer 8f(7) 1c,4j, 5 1r, 4 13c
Empire Maker   Fappiano/ Nor Dancer 6d,6 1r, 6 8f,6 13c,4 16a
Sarava    Nearctic/ Dep. Minister 10c(9)3e, 10a,4 8c,
Point Given  Mr P/Alydar 2n,11d,1s,4 A4, 
Commendable Mr P/ In Reality 16a,2f, 21a, 4 8f,4 13c

From: smartyslew


How They did last year >


belmont angles pg 1  2021 

last Q on Dirt 11/8 mile or longer.last race only 25.40 or better--
Essential Quality WON24.98,Hot Rod Charlie 2nd 25.04Bourbonic 25.30,Known Agenda 4th24.98,Overtook 25.06Rombauer3 rd 24.40

1 pt-turn time Q only

Known Agenda 24.74-4th,Overtook 24.81, Rombauer 23.51-3rd
1 pt-tt-quarter only last race 
 Essential Quality 23.85,Hot Rod Charlie 24.53,
Known Agenda 24.74,Overtook 24.81, Rombauer 23.51
lead at 1/8 pole, 9f or longer, any 3 yr old race
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From: smartyslew


This from last year:

Message below I liked 2 horses for the 2021 Triple Crown this year posted in February
One of the 2,  Greatest Honour Missed the TC because of injuries, The other Essential Quality
Finished 4th in The Kentucky Derby after a troubled trip, Yesterday he came Back and Won the 
3rd leg of the TC , The 12 furlong  Belmont Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths. One of the Angles I use
I posted on the Horse Racing Forum. The Data I use for Historical Performance Guidelines .
I had the first 4 finishers in The Belmont in the Correct order. Essential Quality had the least Knocks
2nd place finisher Hot Rod Charlie had one more knock, Rombauer -2 behind and 4th place Known Agenda -6.
Belmont Historical performance numbers leader board
Without my 1/8 pole Chart
1st 4 in order ,cold superfecta.
1st  Essential Quality           --
2nd  Hot Rod Charlie           -1 behind 
3rd  Rombauer                   -2
4th  Known Agenda            -6
5th  Overtook                    -9
6th  Rock y. World             -11
7th  Bourbonic                  -12 behind first
8th  France Go                   N/A
Posted on Facebook February 27
The 2 Contenders I really like for The Kentucky Derby won their preps today and they both looked great doing it... Greatest Honour won the Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream Park with a great closing kick today. and Essential Quality won The Southwest at Oaklawn both races were 8.5 furlongs, Their next preps will be at 9 F, and the Derby is 10 f (1 1/4 mile ). Both have earned enough points to Qualify for the Derby's starting gate.......

From: Oldbettowin


Good stuff.  I wish EV was running in the Belmont.  He looks like the class of this crop.


From: smartyslew


Thanks, It would be nice to see him in a 12f race, I think the BC is the target now.


From: smartyslew


Female families  8 and Females family 5 are compatible marriages within a pedigree

That works in the Belomont Stake. for example  Native Dancer 5f and Raise You 8f gives you Raise A Native 8f
look for both of these families 8 and 5 in a Pedigree.. Here is a list of Family 8 , next message will be family 5.

Family 8 sires to look for in 5 generations for the Belmont Stakes
Subject: family 8 sires conduit classification
8c (BPT) Cherokee Rose 8c; Classification can carry his speed a distance of ground
T = Transcendent, beyond or above the range of normal.
Buckfinder  8c  BPT                   Birdstone 8f
Bold Commander              Blue Larkspur
Ice Capade                       Raise A Native
Coronados Quest             El Gran Senor
Irish Castle                        Desert GOD
Desert Warrior                  Jazil
Essence Of Dubai             Nijinsky
Fusaichi Pegasus             Tactical Cat
Intent                                 The Minstrel
Majestic Light                    Free House 8g            
Pine Bluff                          Maris Book
Private Terms                   Bubbling Over 8h
Royal Academy                Damascus
Storm Cat                         Native Charger
 Uncle Mo                         Victory Speech       
----8c  B classification       Wavering Monarch
Hennessy                         Conquistador Cielo
                                          El Corredor
Editors Note                       Phone Trick
Red God  IS                      Roman Ruler    
Bold Ruler 8d  I                 Royal Anthem
Cuvee 8d                          Cowtown Cat

From: smartyslew


Another thing for influence, Family Sire 5 or 8 bred to a Mare that is the opposite
family like Native Dancer 5f bred to a mare to get RAN 8f
5f BPT Miss Fiora
Native Dancer 5f               Sharpen Up 5i
What A Pleasure 5f            Hoist The Flag 5i
Bold Lad  5f                      Imperialism  5i 
Sovereign Dancer 5f          Badge Of Silver 5j
-                                     Cormorant 
Afleet Alex 5g                   Equipoise
Hawkster 5g                     Good Manners
Hero's Tribute 5g              Intentionally
Staff Writer 5g                  Johar   
-                                      Peace Rules
5h (IP) Simons Shoes        Djebel
Some say best (T)Family   Seabiscut
in the World                     Nobiz Like Shobiz
-                                     White Eagle 5j
Sadlers Wells                   Pleasant Colony 5a
Nureyev                          Halory Hunter 5c
Apalachee                        Fast Play
Atticus                            Reviewer
Aragorn                           Seeking The Gold
Big Brown
Desert Hero
North Light
St Jovite
Stormy Atlantic
Storm Boot
Wild Zone

From: Wintertrian


smartyslew said...

Un Ojo 2nd to EV in the Withers races first and Wins The Arkansas Derby and touted by Many because it was a Surprise to many

Nobody touted Un Ojo in the Rebel.  If they did, he wouldn't have gone off at 70+ odds.   

I played him is that he was the only horse in the field who had actually run 9F ---  2nd in a graded stakes race (Withers).    Just seemed logical.  Never even had to look at his pedigree or figures. 

EV didn't run in the Rebel so he wasn't a consideration.  (and Un Ojo didn't run in the Preakness).   However, anyone making a "pedigree play" in the Rebel would have put Stellar Tap on the ticket, which would have been a mistake since he ran 9th. 

I remember after the KY Derby we all went "looking" for why Mine That Bird won.  Before the race, nobody had him.  He belonged, but nobody saw it.   Thus, looking for why a horse belonged in a race, after the race, isn't part of my handicapping anymore.  Becuase there is ALWAYS a reason a horse wins, just that we have to be able to see it BEFORE it happens.  :) 

Moving on to the Preakness, Creative Minister was basically an unknown horse;  AFTER it became widely known that the connections supplemented him for $150K (which included knowing the trainer McPeek had 10% ownership and was also kicking in part of that fee), there were still plenty of people who were asking "who is creative minister? I never heard of that horse" before the race.   

Some wagered him based on his 20 point figure leap.   (I actually thought that was a BAD sign....huge speed figure leaps often denotes a horse headed for a regreession, same reason I didn't trust EV).   Combined with his mare index (way over the limit for classic distance, more speed than stamina) he was never a win candidate for me in the Preakness.      If I had not already been "on" him since February, when I saw his work against Rattle N' Roll who was a G1 winner at the time and he just looked better to me and had not even raced yet,  I would not have used him at all.   

Finally (the problem I always have, from playing Oaklawn daily) is that Bris figures and track variant just don't work most of the time.  During the season I experimented using Bris data "by the book".  I had from January 22 to May 1st to test it out, so I used that "formula" about 1x a week.    I went home with empty pockets.   If they worked, more people would have winning trifectas.  But, they don't.   

 I guess if you trust the Bris figures you can go by them.   I don't trust them so I don't.   That's when I just trust my eyes.  Only reason I stayed on CM to run ITM in the Preakness was because it was pretty obvious he had a lot of upside watching his workout before he ever raced in a race at all. 

I think post-race analysis should include not just pedigree and Bris figures, but what do we *see*.   Sometimes our eyes are right and sometimes wrong.  Seeing how easily Mo Donegal mowed EV down in the stretch in the Wood was what made me get off him.   Would I do that again?   Probably.   I win plenty of races using my eyes that way...... and not figures or pedigree.   (Stellar Tap in the Rebel had the pedigree......he ran 9th).  If Stellar Tap won the Rebel, we would all be sitting here pointing out that "he had the pedigree to win the Rebel".   :) 

Just sayin', it's never one thing.  Or even 2 or 3 things.