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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 141053 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

May-26

I have my notes from every Preakness and Belmont in 15+ years.   Sometimes, the forumula for the trifecta is actually very simple.  Sometimes, not.   On pedigree, Pleasant Prince was one of the best in 2010. Finished off the board (over-raced, IMHO).   Only 2 horses qualified on final 3/8 time in big 6 prep race (Fla Derby, Ark Derby or Wood Memorial),  Dublin and Ice Box.  Both ran out of the money.  So did Super Saver, who had won the KY Derby that year. 

Lookin at Lucky won the Preakness that year.  He had run 6th and 3rd in the Ky Derby and Santa Anita Derby respectively.  He had a troubled trip in the Ky Derby (got knocked around) but many tossed him because at least 2 horses run by him in the KY Derby stretch.  First Dude ran 2nd at big odds (24-1) after running 5th in the Florida Derby and 3rd in the Bluegrass (on AW).  He made no sense to most (obviously)!  
  
THe stats on Preakness at the time gate to wire horses win quite often,  but Lucky was a very off the pace kind of runner.  Then we have the stat about works between the Derby and Preakness.  Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex did not have any works between those races.  

 

 

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

May-26

I just looked at KY winner splits  

24.655 48.19333 72.25667 97.75167 122.61

             23.53833 24.06333 25.495 24.85833

Looks like his 2nd qtr was faster than the leaders quarter which I found hard to believe, but on the chart he went from 17.5 to 17 behind.  He maintained a good pace with a slow turn time which very well could have been traffic incurred.  He should be able to maintain a BEL pace, unless they do as Rosario did in the Preakness and get too far behind early on.  With a jock unfamiliar with BEL, good chance that could happen, along with the early move factor.

The figs look formatted now, but I know when I post it will mess up..  First line is adjusted time for RS second is splits.

  • Edited May 26, 2022 11:23 am  by  PISTOL9
sovereign1

From: sovereign1

May-26

He will need a Jazil's Belmont-type of run.

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

May-26

sovereign1 said:

He will need a Jazil's Belmont-type of run.

10Þ06=11Bel fst 1¶ :47¦1:12 2:02¨2:27© Belmont-G1 102 8 12¦¥ 7§õ 1Ç 1ô 1¦õ 

Above copied from Jazil pdf PPs, not a great copy

First call 10 back of a 47 half

I guesstimated

24.85333 49.02667 72.515 97.53 122.69 147.86

                  24.17333 23.48833 25.015 25.16 25.17

So 49 first half for Jazil, who cannot do that?, move in 3rd quarter I believe would be in the backstretch.  Rest relatively moderate 25 qtrs

  • Edited May 26, 2022 12:12 pm  by  PISTOL9
sovereign1

From: sovereign1

May-26

Yes, pretty much and evenly sustained run with the exception of maneuvering for position in the backstretch. He surprised Bluegrass Cat and made them move before they wanted to.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-26

I like the back and forth you and Pistol are doing for the 2 6f (12F) Belmont.
 

Pistol has a crazy Slide Rule and knows what he is doing.   10Þ06=11Bel fst 1¶ :47¦1:12 2:02¨2:27© Belmont-G1 102 8 12¦¥ 7§õ 1Ç 1ô 1¦õ 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

Here is two  3 yr old Races carded tomorrow 6/3/22
-

6 Race - Penn National - Friday, June 3rd, 2022
 
STAKES. 1 Mile Turf. Purse $400,000. Penn Mile S. (Grade 2). FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS. (07:45 PM) (8)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Annapolis 3 C 122 Ortiz, Jr. Irad Pletcher Todd A.
2 Wow Whata Summer 3 G 116 Conner Tyler Lawrence, II James L.
3 Uncaptured Spirit 3 C 116 Suarez Angel Shuman Mark
4 Ohtwoohthreefive 3 C 116 Carmouche Kendrick Weaver George
5 Noneedtoworry 3 C 116 Gonzalez Silvestre Whylie Herold O.
6 Witty 3 G 118 Cedeno Carol Hendriks McLane
7 Red Danger 3 C 116 Lopez Paco Lynch Brian A.
8 Fort Washington 3 C 116 Prat Flavien McGaughey III Claude R.
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8th Race - Churchill Downs - Friday, June 3rd, 2022
ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. 1 Mile Dirt. Purse $127,000. FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of $24,600 At A Mile Or Over Since April 3 Allowed 2 lbs. $21,000 At A Mile Or Over Since Then Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $80,000 (Races Where Entered For $60,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (04:22
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

Race 11 Saturday at Churchill  3 yr olds

11th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, June 4th, 2022

STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Turf. Purse $200,000. Audubon S.. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. (05:58 PM) (11)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Spin Wheel 3 C 118 Morales Edgar Arnold, II George R.
2 Grand Sonata 3 C 120 Gaffalione Tyler Pletcher Todd A.
3 Tallahatchiebridge 3 C 118 Geroux Florent Joseph, Jr. Saffie A.
4 Play Action Pass 3 C 118 Lanerie Corey J. Medina Robert
5 Kitodan 3 C 118 Corrales Gerardo Foster Eric N.
6 Red Run 3 C 118 Leparoux Julien R. Asmussen Steven M.
7 Smokin' T 3 C 118 Velazquez John R. McGaughey III Claude R.
8 Summer Anthem 3 G 118 Castellano Javier Maker Michael J.
9 James Jones 3 C 118 Santana, Jr. Ricardo Brown Chad C.
10 Speaking Scout 3 G 118 Saez Luis Motion H. Graham
11 Major General 3 C
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-2

-

9th Race - Belmont Park - Saturday, June 4th, 2022

STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile About Turf. Purse $200,000. Pennine Ridge S. (Grade 2). INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. (05:12 PM) (7)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Gilded Age 3 C 118 Rider TBA Mott William I.
2 Daunt 3 C 118 McCarthy Trevor Ribaudo Robert
3 Limited Liability 3 C 118 Ortiz Jose L. McGaughey III Claude R.
4 Napoleonic War 3 C 118 Prat Flavien Brown Chad C.
5 Elizar (FR) 3 R 118 Rosario Joel Clement Christophe
6 Emmanuel 3 C 118 Ortiz, Jr. Irad Pletcher Todd A.
7 Unanimous Consent (GB) 3 C 120 Franco Manuel Brown Chad C.

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5th Race - Penn National - Friday, June 3rd, 2022

STAKES. 1 Mile Turf. Purse $150,000. Penn Oaks. FOR FILLIES, THREE YEARS OLD. (07:10 PM) (6)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Belacqua (IRE) 3 F 116
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sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-2

I like Fort Washington in the Penn Mile.

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