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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 152355 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-3

6/2/22 Possible Belmont Entrants.
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Barber Road   9 1x, 6 13c, 1 stam Chef,2 prince,0 Lat,0 dc, 8 Reine
 4i (C) Tapit/Halo DP = 3-4-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.83,cmp = 10-3-3-6-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.04 Triads = 16-12-17
---

Creative Minister 6 8d, 6 3o,5 8c,5 1g,1 stam chef,0 prince, Lat,1 Dc, 12 reine
8d(B)S Cat/Tapit, DP = 1-4-11-0-0 (16) DI =1.91  CD = 0.38,cmp,11-4-3-6-5 Speed = 15 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.53 Triads = 18-13-14
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Ethereal Road 13 13c,6 3j,2 stam chef,Prince, Lat,3 DC, 11 reine,
3j,(I)Mr P/Danzig DP = 2-4-9-1-0 (16) DI = 1.91 CD = 0.44 cmp 8-5-4-5-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.09  Triads = 17-14-16
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Golden Glider 7 23b,6 2n,1 stam chef,Mamoud,Lat,2 DC, 18 reine
2n,(BP)Nor Dan/Bl Groom,DP = 3-4-11-0-0(18) DI =2.27 CD = 0.56 cmp 7-6-2-10-5 Spd 13 Stam 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-18-17
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Howling Time 7 1r,63j,6 9f, 1 stam chef, 0 Prince, Lat,2 DC,8 reine
3j,(I)g Causeway/Arch,DP = 1-1-12-0-0 (14) DI = 1.33 CD = 0.21,cmp 4-10-4-8-4 Spd 14 Stam  12  Index 1.10  Triads = 18-22-16 
_
Mo Donegal 7 8c,7 13c, 6 3g,0 stam,Prince,0 Lat,1 DC,12 reine  
3g,(S)Uncle Mo/Pulpit,DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00  CD = 0.63 cmp9-0-6-8-6 Speed 9 Stamina 14  Index = 0.92   Triads = 15-14-20
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Nest(f) 7 13c,6 4d,5 16a,5 19c,1stamChef,Prince,Lat,12* DC Mares,15 reine
4d (S)Curlin/API DP = 6-10-16-0-0 (32) DI = 3.00  CD = 0.69cmp4-3-0-7-12 Speed  7  Stamina 19 Index = 0.35   Triads = 7-10-19
----
Rich Strike RF, 10 13c,8 23b,6 9,1 stamchef,Prince,0Lat,2 DC,10 reines, 
9(C) Curlin/S.Strike,DP = 5-8-11-0-0 (24) DI = 3.36  CD = 0.75 cmp,7-1-6-9-7  Speed 8 Stamina 16 Index = 0.72  Triads = 14-16-22
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Skippylongstocking 13 10a,5 3g,5 13c,0 stam,Prince,Lat,0 DC,9 reines
10a(BS)Curlin/Danzig,DP = 3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69cmp 8-2-3-11-5 Speed 10 Stamina  16 Index  0.88  Triads = 13-16-19
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We The People P/N-RF 6 16g,6 3o,5 8k,1 stamchef,0 prince,0 Lat,0 Dc,12 reine
16g,(IS)Tapit/Tiznow,DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI 4.33 CD = 0.75 cmp,7-6-3-7-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 10  Index = 1.44 Triads = 16-16-13
--
sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-3

Noice! And thank you, Would you have Tonalist's profile? 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-3

Is this what you are looking for ?

Tonalist P/N,9 3L,6 2f,6 13c,5 3o,4 stam chef,Prince,Lat,6 DC, 20 reine,
3L,(BP)Tapit/Ribot,DP 5-17-18-1-1 (42) DI  2.82 CD  0.57 ,cmp,10-4-0-4-12 Speed = 14 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.86 Triads = 14-8-16
---

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-3

2014 Tonalist Belmont Year, ITM 8 generation Female Foundation linebreeding
--Subject: 2014 belmont 8 gen female linebreeding.. bt=Byerley Turk, da Darley Arabian,p=Phalaris,

1st tapit/pleasant colony 3L
TONALIST C, 2011 DP = 5-17-18-1-1 (42) DI = 2.82   CD = 0.57
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood%
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-3

Last Race Belmont Contenders race splits
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Barber Road 25.71 48.81  13.11  38.25  2.03.52 Derby 10f
25.71 23.10,  24.30, 25.14, 25.27 
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Creative Minister 25.42 48.36  11.90 36.45  55.24  Preak. 9 3/16
25.42 22.94  23.54  24.55 18.79  last Q 24.93
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Ethereal Road 25.50 49.06 11.94 36.56 43.20 Sir Barton 8.5 f
25.50 23,56  22.88  24.62, 31.26 6.64     Last Q 25.01
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Golden Glider  24.36 47.95 11.85 37.23 50.32 PeterPan 9f
24.36  23.59  23.95 25.38 13.09, Last Q 25.76
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Howling Time 24.19 48.60 12.99 37.41 43.50   AllowOC $100,000  8.5 f
24.19 24.41  24.39 24.42 6.09 30.51 last Q 24.41
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Mo Donegal  25.41 48.49  12.50 37.64 2.03.32  Derby
25.41 23.08  24.01, 25.14, 25.68
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Nest     23.66 47.43  11.75 37.08  49.44  Oaks  9f 
23.66 23.77  24.32  25.33  1/8 *12.36 last Q 25.03
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Rich Strike 25.12  48.70 12.60  37.84 2.02.61  Derby
25.12 23.58  23.90  25.24  24.77
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Skippylongstocking 25.62  48.76  12.31 36.87 56.04  Preak
25.62 23.14  23.55  24.56  19.17 Last Q 25.31  
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We The People 23.66 47.24 11.25  35.63 48.27 Peter Pan 9f
23.66 23.58  24.01  24.38  12.64 last Q 24.83
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-3

last Q on Dirt 11/8 mile or longer. last race only 25.40 or better
--
Rich Strike 24.77,We The People 24.83,Creative Minister 24.93,
Nest 25.03,Barber Road 25.27,Skippylongstocking 25.31

---

1 pt-turn To-quarter only last race 25.40 or  better

 Nest 24.32, We The People 24.38,Creative Minister 24.55,Skippy 24.56
Barber Road 25.14Mo Donegal 25.14,Rich Strike 25.24, Golden Glider 25.38,
------
On Both Last Q and Turn Time Q 25.40 or better
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Rich Strike, We The People, Nest, Creative Minister

Barber Road, Skippy
-----
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-4

Speaking of Tonalist, only 2 horses (in 30 years, there were a few  before that) have ever won the Belmont off the winning the Peter Pan......Tonalist and AP Indy. 

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-4

AP Indy is one of those super BMS sires.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

Jun-4

I really like Smokin T . . . maybe a 7-11 exacta.   with Red Run in there somewhere.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-4

smartyslew said...

Race 11 Saturday at Churchill  3 yr olds

11th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, June 4th, 2022

She's All Wolfe, horse / trainer I follow at OP  just won the turf race 7 and paid $42++.   OP rider Arrietta who has always done well with this horse......they "tried" Mike Smith in the La Trionne Stakes and he didn't bring it.   Just goes to show, big money riders don't necessarily do better.  Ermania wasn't bad either at REM.

Interesting race 11.   But in Race 10 before it, Title Ready scratched so they're unfortunately down to a mere 7 horse field.  I think Americanrevolution is the worthy favorite and will go off lower than 8/5.   Guess you can play with proxy, scalding for a chalky exacta.   Longshot bomb would be Santos Dumont .. Not because of his odds but because I always look at Don Alberto breedings, and I followed him at Oaklawn for 5+ races but he was with Asmussen until Feb 2022,  so now I'm not sure.  He's an allowance horse so this would be a big step up in class, but may be worth throwing into a superfecta for value.    

For R11, looking forward to Spin Wheel and perhaps Red Run and Speaking Scout.  (Major General on turf, will have to just watch him this round. )

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