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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 150308 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-3

Last Race Belmont Contenders race splits
--
Barber Road 25.71 48.81  13.11  38.25  2.03.52 Derby 10f
25.71 23.10,  24.30, 25.14, 25.27 
-
Creative Minister 25.42 48.36  11.90 36.45  55.24  Preak. 9 3/16
25.42 22.94  23.54  24.55 18.79  last Q 24.93
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Ethereal Road 25.50 49.06 11.94 36.56 43.20 Sir Barton 8.5 f
25.50 23,56  22.88  24.62, 31.26 6.64     Last Q 25.01
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Golden Glider  24.36 47.95 11.85 37.23 50.32 PeterPan 9f
24.36  23.59  23.95 25.38 13.09, Last Q 25.76
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Howling Time 24.19 48.60 12.99 37.41 43.50   AllowOC $100,000  8.5 f
24.19 24.41  24.39 24.42 6.09 30.51 last Q 24.41
--
Mo Donegal  25.41 48.49  12.50 37.64 2.03.32  Derby
25.41 23.08  24.01, 25.14, 25.68
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Nest     23.66 47.43  11.75 37.08  49.44  Oaks  9f 
23.66 23.77  24.32  25.33  1/8 *12.36 last Q 25.03
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Rich Strike 25.12  48.70 12.60  37.84 2.02.61  Derby
25.12 23.58  23.90  25.24  24.77
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Skippylongstocking 25.62  48.76  12.31 36.87 56.04  Preak
25.62 23.14  23.55  24.56  19.17 Last Q 25.31  
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We The People 23.66 47.24 11.25  35.63 48.27 Peter Pan 9f
23.66 23.58  24.01  24.38  12.64 last Q 24.83
-
-
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-3

last Q on Dirt 11/8 mile or longer. last race only 25.40 or better
--
Rich Strike 24.77,We The People 24.83,Creative Minister 24.93,
Nest 25.03,Barber Road 25.27,Skippylongstocking 25.31

---

1 pt-turn To-quarter only last race 25.40 or  better

 Nest 24.32, We The People 24.38,Creative Minister 24.55,Skippy 24.56
Barber Road 25.14Mo Donegal 25.14,Rich Strike 25.24, Golden Glider 25.38,
------
On Both Last Q and Turn Time Q 25.40 or better
-
Rich Strike, We The People, Nest, Creative Minister

Barber Road, Skippy
-----
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-4

Speaking of Tonalist, only 2 horses (in 30 years, there were a few  before that) have ever won the Belmont off the winning the Peter Pan......Tonalist and AP Indy. 

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-4

AP Indy is one of those super BMS sires.

GamblingMel

From: GamblingMel

Jun-4

I really like Smokin T . . . maybe a 7-11 exacta.   with Red Run in there somewhere.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-4

smartyslew said...

Race 11 Saturday at Churchill  3 yr olds

11th Race - Churchill Downs - Saturday, June 4th, 2022

She's All Wolfe, horse / trainer I follow at OP  just won the turf race 7 and paid $42++.   OP rider Arrietta who has always done well with this horse......they "tried" Mike Smith in the La Trionne Stakes and he didn't bring it.   Just goes to show, big money riders don't necessarily do better.  Ermania wasn't bad either at REM.

Interesting race 11.   But in Race 10 before it, Title Ready scratched so they're unfortunately down to a mere 7 horse field.  I think Americanrevolution is the worthy favorite and will go off lower than 8/5.   Guess you can play with proxy, scalding for a chalky exacta.   Longshot bomb would be Santos Dumont .. Not because of his odds but because I always look at Don Alberto breedings, and I followed him at Oaklawn for 5+ races but he was with Asmussen until Feb 2022,  so now I'm not sure.  He's an allowance horse so this would be a big step up in class, but may be worth throwing into a superfecta for value.    

For R11, looking forward to Spin Wheel and perhaps Red Run and Speaking Scout.  (Major General on turf, will have to just watch him this round. )

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-4

I put these weekend 3 year old races on here to see if anyone is interested .

I didn't have time to do anything with them.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-4

Wintertrian said...

For R11, looking forward to Spin Wheel and perhaps Red Run and Speaking Scout.  (Major General on turf, will have to just watch him this round. )

And Kitodan takes it at 40-1 and pays $82 win / $29.20 place.   Nowhere on my paper ticket.  Bet that killed a lot of "pick tickets" today for those who played. 

Rob I was just watching them since you put the link up.  Otherwise, I don't really wager much except at Oaklawn during the meet since I go in person there........ and sometimes use my AWD online if I want to wager some of the TC and BC races.   I don't keep money in my account so I have to be really inspired to make a deposit.  The less win/loss statements I have in my life the better.  :) 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-4

And Rosario climbs aboard Barber Road, for all the fans out there.

Winless in 5 starts and will not be wearing his usual blinkers either.   

Rosario won on Tonalist and Sir Winston, so there go the odds

I'm superstitious about keeping riders and not replacing them with the big money guys and also not a big Rosario fan, though admittedly, he either brings it or messes up so badly it makes your head hurt.   So this (and what appear to will be wonky odds, just like in the Preakness) may keep me from actually spending $ on this race, but we'll see.   Some of these horses should be 20-1 at least, on the M/L and I suspect few if any will be.   

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-4

I'm glad I didn't jump in on this race. 

To me it looks like The late Developers did good, Is there another Tiznow In here.

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