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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 149618 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-4

Wintertrian said...

For R11, looking forward to Spin Wheel and perhaps Red Run and Speaking Scout.  (Major General on turf, will have to just watch him this round. )

And Kitodan takes it at 40-1 and pays $82 win / $29.20 place.   Nowhere on my paper ticket.  Bet that killed a lot of "pick tickets" today for those who played. 

Rob I was just watching them since you put the link up.  Otherwise, I don't really wager much except at Oaklawn during the meet since I go in person there........ and sometimes use my AWD online if I want to wager some of the TC and BC races.   I don't keep money in my account so I have to be really inspired to make a deposit.  The less win/loss statements I have in my life the better.  :) 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-4

And Rosario climbs aboard Barber Road, for all the fans out there.

Winless in 5 starts and will not be wearing his usual blinkers either.   

Rosario won on Tonalist and Sir Winston, so there go the odds

I'm superstitious about keeping riders and not replacing them with the big money guys and also not a big Rosario fan, though admittedly, he either brings it or messes up so badly it makes your head hurt.   So this (and what appear to will be wonky odds, just like in the Preakness) may keep me from actually spending $ on this race, but we'll see.   Some of these horses should be 20-1 at least, on the M/L and I suspect few if any will be.   

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-4

I'm glad I didn't jump in on this race. 

To me it looks like The late Developers did good, Is there another Tiznow In here.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-5

I am kinda in Frankel's camp on Jocks, If they make a mistake at the gate's start it isn't good.

Its like being ready and Never blink , a blink can cost you, be prepared,  route Races never race wide on all turns,
You might getaway being wide on one turn,. Grading a ride is good points for what you did right until a mistake is noted

If you make a mistake and its close to the wire, that's a good ride you got us there, a good ride its easy for some to

knock a jock for a split second mistake close to the wire. grade the whole race what did you like, what didn't you like.

Msg 1770.1191 deleted
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-5

smartyslew said...

I'm glad I didn't jump in on this race. 


The late $0.50 pick 5 paid $424,000.  

Chalk players never get it those kinda payouts. 

 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-6

4 Belmont Contenders that have Derby winners Nicks Sire/ BMS
-
Nest(f) 7 13c,6 4d,5 16a,5 19c,1stamChef,Prince,Lat,12* DC Mares,15 reine
4d (S)Curlin/API DP = 6-10-16-0-0 (32) DI = 3.00  CD = 0.69cmp4-3-0-7-12 Speed  7  Stamina 19 Index = 0.35   Triads = 7-10-19  long nick Mr P/Seattle Slew  1999 Lemon Drop Kid
----
Rich Strike RF, 10 13c,8 23b,6 9,1 stamchef,Prince,0Lat,2 DC,10 reines, 
9(C) Curlin/S.Strike,DP = 5-8-11-0-0 (24) DI = 3.36  CD = 0.75 cmp,7-1-6-9-7  Speed 8 Stamina 16 Index = 0.72  Triads = 14-16-22  Long Nick Ran/Ran Ruler On Ice 2011, Ran/ Ran Point Given 2001
--
Skippylongstocking 13 10a,5 3g,5 13c,0 stam,Prince,Lat,0 DC,9 reines
10a(BS)Curlin/Danzig,DP  3-5-8-0-0(16) DI= 3.00 CD  0.69cmp 8-2-3-11-5 Speed10 Stamina16 Index  0.88 Triads13-16-19 ..
Long Nick Curlin/Nor Dancer Palice Malice 2013, Mrp/ Nor Dancer ,American Pharoah 2015
Drosselmeyer 2010,Summer Bird 2009,Jazil 2006, Birdstone 2004, Empire Maker 2003,Victory Gallop 1998,
Thunder Gulch 1995,Hansel 1991, Skippy only entrant with Conduit Mare Belmont Winner's, 10a Court Dress (BS): Go And Go 1990. Pavot  1945,
--
We The People P/N-RF 6 16g,6 3o,5 8k,1 stamchef,0 prince,0 Lat,0 Dc,12 reine
16g,(IS)Tapit/Tiznow,DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI 4.33 CD = 0.75 cmp,7-6-3-7-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 10  Index = 1.44 Triads = 16-16-13,   
+Short nick Tiz The Law 2020,Tapwrit 2017
--
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-7

It will be interesting to see how the 2nd generation Tapits do. 

As everyone is aware, the ones that won the Belmont were all 1st gens, as were some of the other non Belmont winners like Frosted, Lani, etc. 

Has Tapit produced any 2nd gen G1 winners over 10F  yet?   I only kept track of a few 2nd gens like Desert Dawn, Glass Ceiling, etc.   Tiz the Law ran the Belmont at 9F, and never ran over 10F at all.  

I did keep track of some horses where Tapit was their BMS,  like Silver Prospector, Tenfold, etc.  (I like Creative Minister but more because of his sire and less because of Tapit being his BMS, plus I'm not convinced he can win the Belmont even though I like him a lot).   

As for the 2nd gen Tapits w/Constitution as a sire, I was never a fan (Major General, Independence Hall, Americanrevolution, Never Surprised, Promise Keeper, etc.)  which is probably why I'm not a huge fan of We The People either.  

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-7

So which ones left have a sire that won 9F and longer? I'm going to use that as a starting point.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-7

That's a good question when a Sire becomes a Grand Sire, it moves Pulpit, API, Seattle Slew back an Generation
in this case still Within 5 generations of a Pedigree, those 3 have more of a history in their new positions for Tapit.
also EACH MR. PROSPECTOR (USA) NARRATE (USA)  TAP YOUR HEELS (USA), UNBRIDLED (USA) ,FAPPIANO (USA) GANA FACIL (USA)
RUBY SLIPPERS (USA), NIJINSKY (CAN) [CS]  MOON GLITTER (USA, are still within 5 generations and it will be more about Nicks that work
and Female Families totals within 5 generations imo, saying that sometimes a good line will skip a generation and maybe one or two
of his sons packs the gear to carry it on and we are kinda clueless on that. all of the horses I listed were in Tapits 5 generation pedigree
as a Sire and are with him as a GrandSire, In the case of Desert Dawn  with Tapits Son Cupid as her Sire, Big Red 3rd Dams Sire, mated to  
A Busanda 1x Sire could be a good Sire or BMSire, with the right mating. thats one of his sons in this case,
Pulpit, API, Seattle Slew, Unbridled, Fappiano, Nijinsky, are still in his pedigree and all of them are in more Belmont Winners Than Tapit.
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