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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 152831 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-5

I am kinda in Frankel's camp on Jocks, If they make a mistake at the gate's start it isn't good.

Its like being ready and Never blink , a blink can cost you, be prepared,  route Races never race wide on all turns,
You might getaway being wide on one turn,. Grading a ride is good points for what you did right until a mistake is noted

If you make a mistake and its close to the wire, that's a good ride you got us there, a good ride its easy for some to

knock a jock for a split second mistake close to the wire. grade the whole race what did you like, what didn't you like.

Msg 1770.1191 deleted
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-5

smartyslew said...

I'm glad I didn't jump in on this race. 


The late $0.50 pick 5 paid $424,000.  

Chalk players never get it those kinda payouts. 

 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-6

4 Belmont Contenders that have Derby winners Nicks Sire/ BMS
-
Nest(f) 7 13c,6 4d,5 16a,5 19c,1stamChef,Prince,Lat,12* DC Mares,15 reine
4d (S)Curlin/API DP = 6-10-16-0-0 (32) DI = 3.00  CD = 0.69cmp4-3-0-7-12 Speed  7  Stamina 19 Index = 0.35   Triads = 7-10-19  long nick Mr P/Seattle Slew  1999 Lemon Drop Kid
----
Rich Strike RF, 10 13c,8 23b,6 9,1 stamchef,Prince,0Lat,2 DC,10 reines, 
9(C) Curlin/S.Strike,DP = 5-8-11-0-0 (24) DI = 3.36  CD = 0.75 cmp,7-1-6-9-7  Speed 8 Stamina 16 Index = 0.72  Triads = 14-16-22  Long Nick Ran/Ran Ruler On Ice 2011, Ran/ Ran Point Given 2001
--
Skippylongstocking 13 10a,5 3g,5 13c,0 stam,Prince,Lat,0 DC,9 reines
10a(BS)Curlin/Danzig,DP  3-5-8-0-0(16) DI= 3.00 CD  0.69cmp 8-2-3-11-5 Speed10 Stamina16 Index  0.88 Triads13-16-19 ..
Long Nick Curlin/Nor Dancer Palice Malice 2013, Mrp/ Nor Dancer ,American Pharoah 2015
Drosselmeyer 2010,Summer Bird 2009,Jazil 2006, Birdstone 2004, Empire Maker 2003,Victory Gallop 1998,
Thunder Gulch 1995,Hansel 1991, Skippy only entrant with Conduit Mare Belmont Winner's, 10a Court Dress (BS): Go And Go 1990. Pavot  1945,
--
We The People P/N-RF 6 16g,6 3o,5 8k,1 stamchef,0 prince,0 Lat,0 Dc,12 reine
16g,(IS)Tapit/Tiznow,DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) DI 4.33 CD = 0.75 cmp,7-6-3-7-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 10  Index = 1.44 Triads = 16-16-13,   
+Short nick Tiz The Law 2020,Tapwrit 2017
--
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-7

It will be interesting to see how the 2nd generation Tapits do. 

As everyone is aware, the ones that won the Belmont were all 1st gens, as were some of the other non Belmont winners like Frosted, Lani, etc. 

Has Tapit produced any 2nd gen G1 winners over 10F  yet?   I only kept track of a few 2nd gens like Desert Dawn, Glass Ceiling, etc.   Tiz the Law ran the Belmont at 9F, and never ran over 10F at all.  

I did keep track of some horses where Tapit was their BMS,  like Silver Prospector, Tenfold, etc.  (I like Creative Minister but more because of his sire and less because of Tapit being his BMS, plus I'm not convinced he can win the Belmont even though I like him a lot).   

As for the 2nd gen Tapits w/Constitution as a sire, I was never a fan (Major General, Independence Hall, Americanrevolution, Never Surprised, Promise Keeper, etc.)  which is probably why I'm not a huge fan of We The People either.  

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-7

So which ones left have a sire that won 9F and longer? I'm going to use that as a starting point.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-7

That's a good question when a Sire becomes a Grand Sire, it moves Pulpit, API, Seattle Slew back an Generation
in this case still Within 5 generations of a Pedigree, those 3 have more of a history in their new positions for Tapit.
also EACH MR. PROSPECTOR (USA) NARRATE (USA)  TAP YOUR HEELS (USA), UNBRIDLED (USA) ,FAPPIANO (USA) GANA FACIL (USA)
RUBY SLIPPERS (USA), NIJINSKY (CAN) [CS]  MOON GLITTER (USA, are still within 5 generations and it will be more about Nicks that work
and Female Families totals within 5 generations imo, saying that sometimes a good line will skip a generation and maybe one or two
of his sons packs the gear to carry it on and we are kinda clueless on that. all of the horses I listed were in Tapits 5 generation pedigree
as a Sire and are with him as a GrandSire, In the case of Desert Dawn  with Tapits Son Cupid as her Sire, Big Red 3rd Dams Sire, mated to  
A Busanda 1x Sire could be a good Sire or BMSire, with the right mating. thats one of his sons in this case,
Pulpit, API, Seattle Slew, Unbridled, Fappiano, Nijinsky, are still in his pedigree and all of them are in more Belmont Winners Than Tapit.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-7

smartyslew said...

that's a good question when a Sire becomes a Grand Sire,

It wasn't really a question, just a statement that I thought everyone would be aware of when looking at pedigrees.   There are first gen 2nd gen 3rd gen sires and so on (and an equal number of "crops" in each gen of course.) 

I just wanted everybody to know that we really do not have any information about subsequent gens of some sires going 10F+ because........they haven't raced at those distances yet.    

 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-7

sovereign1 said...

So which ones left have a sire that won 9F and longer?

I don't think you understand. 

I was just pointing out that all the "tapits" in this field are 2nd gens.  i.e. no horse in this race is "directly sired" by Tapit.........like the 4 who won previous Belmonts.   Those were 1st gens.  So was Lani, Frosted, etc.  

I hope that makes sense.   And I can't tell you what 2nd gens will do in the Belmont.  Unless I had a crystal ball.  Anymore than I can tell you if a horse sired by creative cause or uncle mo can. 

All the information you need is in these topics and most all the horses have influences of over 9F and 10F anyway or they wouldn't have been able to run in the prep races.  :)   Everyone has their favorite "influences" and I'm sure smarty's and anyone else's would be different from mine.  We are all "trying to project" which of these can win/place/show at 12F.   None of them have run that far yet.

Will the 2nd gen Tapits bring it like the first gens did?   I have no idea.   Not saying not to use them.  Just saying that it would be kinda silly to  "assume" that the first gens and 2nd gens are the same.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-7

I don't want to look for my post but that is why I made the post where I  pointed out that in past years, a Twirling Candy, a Shanghai Bobby, a Curlin, a Union Rags, a Malibu Moon etc. have run 3rd.   And a Scat Daddy and Lonhro ran 1, 2; a Curlin and Awesome Again ran 1,2; an AP Indy, Giants Causeway, Oxbow and Curlin have run 2nd, etc. And that's just pointing out the sires.  Without considering the mare side. 

So the question you asked me previously is a very large research project.......like book format large.  

Next, you have to decide if they are (or can)  "express" the pedigrees you like on the track, and will they do  that at 12F. 

 It's a puzzle.   I like puzzles so I've spent a lot of time looking at PPs which I have saved going back to 2009 for this race and I study them year after year.   Yet, I've only won "big" 3 times in 20 years.  (high paying exactas not trifectas).   I missed Gronkowski, for instance.  Ruler On Ice, and even Tapwrit.  Something always messes up my bet.    As I"m sure many thousands of others experience.   

My brother is a Curlin fan, so he is likely to box the Curlins so you can be assured that Rich Strike, Skippy and Nest will be on his ticket.       

Tons of other people don't even care about this stuff.  They will use PPs and running lines and cap it just like any other race.  Not everyone even believe in pedigree capping. 

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