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2022 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 169945 views.
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-8

smartyslew said...

LOL. A weak Pedigree field , remember what they do on the track performance trumps their pedigree.

Bingo.  

I use "the other stuff" for my longshots though. 
 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-9

Don't forget Lonhro has some of that good  Argentina blood  from his Dams side Thru Forli and Gronkowski was bred in the USA

and had 0-0 Stamina pts in his dosage and no Stam Chefs , but lot of his pedigree was outside the Usa ,and the dosage pts and Stam Chef is moot in my opinion . 

Many other elite horses that raced in the Tc series over the years fell in this category and you have to be aware of it.

Like Candy Ride and his Progeny, Pioneerof the Nile, AMerican Pharoah  Gun Runner, to name a few. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-9

Sometimes I use it for a tiebreaker, like this year, a rf, a stam chef on the Sire side, Classisity,

If 2 horses are close in splits, Early time, Last Q 25.40. last 1/8 faster than the the 1/8  from the Last Q time in a 9f race

and pretty even in the variants  and different scenarios puts them right there I can look at the RF or Stam Chef like Nijinsky CS

whos been there before i'll look at for my tiebreaker, Last Q time you have to take in where that started from. How far behind the lead.

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

Jun-9

I never know "how" I'm going to use last Q or final 1/8.  Seem to work better in Preak or Derby?   

Brody's Cause, Damsire Roberto.  Last Q 25.57 Derby which in THAT Belmont made him 3rd fastest in the field --- and he never lost ground in any races but 6th in the BEL.   

Creator  finished 18 lengths behind Nyquist in the KY Derby!   (After winning Arkie Derby final 1/8 in 12.66.)    "Come from the clouds grinder" running style.....but his dam had that nice south american blood from Peru.     

Cherry Wine, another late runner who was known for running over sloppy tracks. 7th in the Belmont on clear/fast......but that was more becasue of pedigree.   

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-9

Brodys Cause didn't meet the Historical Guidelines last Q 25,40 or faster, he had a slow final Q, 
was he backing up ?

Creator might of needed a line drawn thru the Derby race, I don't  remember

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-10

Thank you for that !

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Jun-10

 Belmont Data
-
last Q on Dirt 11/8 mile or longer. last race only 25.40 or better
--
Rich Strike 24.77,We The People 24.83,Creative Minister 24.93,
Nest 25.03,Barber Road 25.27,Skippylongstocking 25.31

---
1 pt-turn To-quarter only last race 25.40 or  better
...[Message truncated]
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Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

Jun-11

Hyperion or Man o’ War first five generations in the tail…WtP (Letchworth), Skippy (Clover Lane).

sovereign1

From: sovereign1

Jun-11

But doesn't it show Hyperion and Man O War are past the 5 generations?

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

Jun-11

I heard many many times this week that Tapits do well and that TAP knows how to win this race!!!

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