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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 212374 views.

From: smartyslew


Race 10Keeneland - Friday, November 4th, 2022 on message 1352 Juv Turf data on the PP and Charts
List the runup for their last race s/be considered for this mile race in my opinion.

Runup to the start  Ok the turf is firm today

11 Reckoning Forcerunup 214 ft  fm

2 Packs a Wahlop  160 ft  fm

5 Battle Of Normandy 100 ft  gd  rail out 27 ft

6 And The Winner Is 100 ft  fm

7 Really Good  100 ft fm

3 Curly Larry Moe  92 ft  fm

8 I'm Very Busy 28 ft  yl

13 Major Dude 28 ft  yl

10 Webslinger 24 ft fm

1 Victoria Road  ?   gd

4 Silver Knott  ?     gd

Didn't do the 6f runners you can look them up on their charts

Message 1352 has the bris speed numbers and last Q.

  • Edited November 4, 2022 12:49 pm  by  smartyslew

From: smartyslew


Keeneland - Friday, November 4th, 2022 9th race BC Juvenile 8.5 f
1Hurricane J2 C122Talamo JosephLobo Paulo H. runup 65 ft 6f  85
2Congruent2 C122Ortiz Jose L.Sano Antonio  runup 20 ft  8f off T slop  88
3Cave Rock2 C122Hernandez Juan J.Baffert Bob  runup *80 ft  8.5 g1 107
splits for his race 1 16 224 464 1.11 1 43 3 wired
4Forte2 C122Ortiz, Jr. IradPletcher Todd A.  Forte runup 50 ft 8.5 g1 96
splits for his race 1 16 224(7) 461(5) 1.11 3(1) 1 44 3 (1)
5Verifying2 C122Rosario JoelCox Brad H.  runup 50 ft 8f g1 82
6Blazing Sevens2 C122Prat FlavienBrown Chad C. run up 50 ft  8f g1 86
7Wound Up2 C122Gutierrez MarioMcCarthy Michael W. turfer runup 64 ft 2 back 8f 74
8Lost Ark2 C122Saez LuisPletcher Todd A. runup 50ft 8.5f g1 checked hard  85
9Curly Jack2 C122Morales EdgarAmoss Thomas M. runup 50 ft 8.5f g3  86
10National Treasure2 Cb122Velazquez John R.Baffert  runup *80 ft 8.5 g1  101
see Cave Rock splits 2nd all of the way, finished  5 1/4 behind.

From: smartyslew


10th  Keeneland - Friday, November 4th, 2022  8f turf

 $ 20 win #1 Victoria Road 6-1, Thats a Pick , can't bet the 4 at  9-5, hope the pick likes firm turf

I will use the 2; 5-1,4; 9-5, 6 ;7-1,  11; 43-1,  13; 19-1 in my exotics after I see How the Turf is playing.

Edit 11/6 to correct the name of my pick S/BE Victoria Road ,not Victoria Park
# 1 Victoria Road did win pd $13.14, 2nd #4 Silver Knott, 3rd & 4th not mine listed 

I really liked the top 2. Fonishers

  • Edited November 16, 2022 12:35 pm  by  smartyslew

From: smartyslew


smartyslew said:

Keeneland - Friday, November 4th, 2022 9th race BC Juvenile 8.5 f --dirt

I'm picking #4 Forte to win and using  3- Cave Rock, 8 Lost Ark, 5 Verifying,10 National Treasure

and #9 Curly Jack in my Tri's and Supers and picks .

Edit 11/16 Forte did win and pd $12.40,won by 1 1/2 lengths, Cave Rock the big favorite 2nd
3rd National Treasure,4th Blazing Sevens, Let me know if this helped anybody or follow my thread.

  • Edited November 16, 2022 12:16 pm  by  smartyslew

From: Plus2lbs


I'll take a flyer on #2 Congruent...has some angles I like...99/

No intent..

  • Edited November 4, 2022 6:08 pm  by  Plus2lbs

From: smartyslew


The last 3 Juvenile winners Forte-22, Corniche-21, Essential Quality-20
and 4 of the last 5 winners Game Winner-18 all have the same 
Tail Female family branch1x
with the Transcendent Classification BP-T Conduit Mare Profile (CMP) La Troienne 1x
BP Classification tf family suggests carry your speed a distance of ground.
All with different nicks (Sire/ Bms) and on 3 different track surfaces.
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message



Best performance on Friday, may have been the Brad Cox trained son of Into Mischief, Giant Mischief. He defeated the Baffert colt, Arabian Lion. They battled down the stretch, leaving the rest of the field 17 lengths behind!


From: smartyslew


Second race for both. Cox was sneaky with Giant Mischief, 9/22/22 1st race at Horseshoe 5.5 f dirt 1.04.63 Awarded E 69,E 101 here

Bumped hard start 6 lengths behind at the first call, checked 9/16 had to alter course, ran last half furlong in 5.43 for the win.

MSW $30,000  $475,000 purchase, Baffert did his usual at Santa Anita his horse 6f 1.09 change.

Cox has a string at Horseshoe , suggest looking for 2 year olds of his there!

reminds me of East Coast trainers slip 2 year olds into  Parx and Delaware, many times on a Monday

when its dark at top tracks, Fair Hill farm Workers like Graham Motion string can show up anywhere

Mostly at Laurel Park.


From: Wintertrian


princeofdoc said...

I'm expecting Echo Again to run huge and be the favorite for the BC Juvy.....

I had him in one of my watches, ran 7th in the Iroquois and no works since late October.  Dunno what Asmussen is dong with him but pretty sure I will see him at Oaklawn soon in person.  

2 I am watching

Signator  that McGaughey has
Although the seeking the gold bms is a problem for me, but interesting that McGaughey trained Seeking the Gold.
Although Blame did okay in the BC Classic and Take Charge Brandi did well in the BC Juvie Fillies.    I just would not use this one in KY Derby except bottom of a super, they have good speed for the prep races though but in KY Derby usually turn out like Pants on Fire type.?



King Elvis that Attfield has

This one I like a lot.  Esp. since canadian track horses often get ignored and/or don't make any lists. 

Sometimes we watch a horse we think will do something, like I "was" watching Above Suspicion at one point, the filly Mandella has, Farish breeding in 2019 and she turned out quite poorly, but I thought that when I looked at the pedigree anyway.   No idea what he is doing with her now-----working, but i think this one will remain in CALI unless he can turn her around. 


From: smartyslew


You must not bet turf Horses very often, the 6 I looked at on message 1352 is the message you must have meant to
 address to me  and not message 1350.  I got emails asking me what you meant ,didn't make sense on message 1350.

I listed 6 horses of the 14 entered a day before the race on 1352 not knowing turf conditions with a mix of  gd, fm, yl. etc.

Race day it was a fm track and some Euros gd race types can run ok on fm.

Message 1358 I listed The Runups,
Message 1360  I listed my Pick and bet

10th  Keeneland - Friday, November 4th, 2022  8f turf

 $ 20 win #1 Victoria Park 6-1, Thats a Pick , can't bet the 4 at  9-5, hope the pick likes firm turf

He and 2nd place #4 Silver Knott had the shortest runups 2 of the tools I used to bet the Winner.