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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 257426 views.

From: smartyslew


The new game is go to that first crop sire reported by people smarter then me

the fee will be cheaper like for Into Mischief , Tapit who excel at stud with a lofty price
first few crops a lot cheaper.

Another thing they figured out your top sires were speed horses at 2 years old

Like Mr P, Storm Cat, Danzig, Into Mischief, Candy Ride, War Front , etc

Most Derby winners are from early crop Sires,.

Somebody Tongue In cheek said Breed to all of the first crop sires and you will get

thebest sires down the road and drop the bad ones.

Somebody said its the new game in town.

today and by the time their 3rd crop races ,you have a good idea who to breed to and who to drop, if this is true 4th crop sires that are doing good will be scheduled at a higher price, others not so good will be dropped and decrease in the mares they cover


From: princeofdoc


All excellent points!

One of the reason I'm interested in Army Mule, as we never found out just how good he could have become


From: smartyslew


In the early fifties MLB was signing Bonus Babies like Dick Wakefield and Paul Petitt

For $100,000 signing , by the end of the Fifties they were signing 10 players for $10,000

each, thought the odds were better for one to make it to the biggies.

A breeder could breed to 50 1st crop sires to close to the price of one

top sire. Deep pockets savvy people just might be doing that today.


From: smartyslew



Santa Anita Race 6 Today 8.5f Dirt MSW

Bafferts Harlocap Won and Mandellas yellow Brick was 2nd.

BTW Bafferts 3 yr olds have to be dispersed to other trainers before 2/28/23

to be eligible for the Derby.




Nothing to write home about, but Funtastic Again couldn’t have looked more impressive. He never got out of second gear! It is Turfway, so I don’t know if he will be as good on dirt. He’s tried it before, but he didn’t look like this!




Remember MTR passed last year!


From: smartyslew


3 years old On our list racing this week
1/25/23  Edit Munnys WON going away
Gulfstream Park Race 8: Allowance 3 yr old state bred Fillies never won 2 races
6 f dirt  #2 Munny's Gold (f) Munnings/ Mda D'Oro   I Ortiz/ Pletcher  L  7 entrants
Turfway Park Race 5 MSW 1 Mile All weather track 14 entrants,2 L free
#8 Line Of Sight  L Gun Runner/ Unbridleds Song   Achard / Stidham EDIT 5th place
Santa Anita Race 6 allow/oc  6.5f Downhill Turf 6 entrants 
# 2 Wound Up   L1   Mendelssohn/Distorted/ Humor  Gutierrez Edit Last of 4
Sam Houston Race 8 100,000 stks Bob Bork Texas Turf Mile 8 entrants
#3 Worthington   Classic Empire /Monarchos   Gutierrez./ Maker L free , rest on L
  • Edited January 27, 2023 9:06 pm  by  smartyslew

From: smartyslew


Southwest Points race 20-8-6-4-2

E1 E2/LATE SPEED PARS: 91 97/ 89      97 ,      94 99/ 104    104  (7f) Arabian Night)

Speed Last: 

104 - 7f Arabian Knight, 99-6f Corona Bolt, 96-8.5fJace's Road,  95-6f  Frosted Departure,

 89-8f Hit Show,  88- 8f Sun Thunder, 82- 8.5 f Red Route One ,81-8f, Western Ghent 81-7f  El Toma

Back Speed :

96Jace's Road 89 Hit Show 88 Sun Thunder 88 Red Route One 81 Western Ghent 69 Frosted Departure NA Corona Bolt NA Arabian Knight NA El Tomat


Early Pace:107-6f Frosted Departure,  100-6f Corona Bolt , 99 - 7fArabian Knight,  94-8.5 Jace's Road,
 83-8f Sun Thunder 83-8f Western Ghent, 83-8f Hit Show 83-7f El Tomate 64-8f Red Route One
Late Pace :

104  7fArabian Knight, 104 8f Red Route One,96 8f Hit Show, 95 6f Corona Bolt, 87 8f Sun Thunder

 87 7f El Tomate, 86 8,5f Jace's Road 83 6f Frosted Departure 80 8f Western Ghent

10th Race Oaklawn Park - Saturday, January 28th, 2023

STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Dirt. Purse $750,000. Southwest S. (Grade 3). THREE YEAR OLDS. (04:57 PM) (9)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey                       runup    bris            last Q Trainer
1 Sun Thunder So 3 C 117 Cabrera David             60 ft      88 8f gd     26,39 McPeek Kenneth G.
2 Corona Bolt EP6 3 C 117 Prat Flavien                 80         99 6f Cox Brad H.
3 Jace's Road EP5 3 C 119 Talamo Joseph             50         96 8.5f        25.95 wired Cox Brad H.
4 Western Ghent  E3 3 C 117 Torres Cristian A.        60         81 8f            25.78 wired Lukas D. Wayne
5 Frosted Departure  EP6 3 C 117 Arrieta Francisco         80         95 6f McPeek Kenneth G.
6 Arabian Knight  E6  84 days off 3 C 117 Velazquez John R.       55        104 7f Baffert Bob
7 Red Route One  P2  63 days off 3 C 117 Santana, Jr. Ricardo     50         82 8f           25.52 Asmussen Steven M.
8 Hit Show   P4 3 C 119 Franco Manuel             60         89 8f           25.32 Cox Brad H.
9 El Tomate  S4 3 C 117 Mojica Orlando            50         81 7f Silva Miguel


raced on Lasix :Sun Thunder, Corona Bolt, Frosted Departure, Hit Show, El Tomate
3 speed Balls Coming Off sprints and one Arabian Knight has a Fast Late Pace Number
Frosted Departure, Corona Bolt will try to go with or stay behind and try to rate or

Arabian Knight Could Rate behind them and he is outside those 2.
Cox has 3 in here He could have Corona Bolt Duel with the Lead and Set it up for

Hit Show and Jaces Road. 
I think the first 4 Pedigree numbers are Arabian Knight, Hit Show, Corona Bolt, Jaces Road

Cox Trains the last 3 , and Baffert the other one. Arabian Knight and Jaces Road are Lasix Free of the 4.

I think the winner will be from these 4 on a fast track. 

See if the Lasix helps anybody.


Best speed at the Distance:

3 Jace's Road 96 7 Red Route One 88 8 Hit Show 84

Prime Power:6 Arabian Knight 145.2 2 Corona Bolt 137.6 3 Jace's Road 133.5
Class Reading : 

6 Arabian Knight 119.2 2 Corona Bolt 117.0 7 Red Route One 116.5



Msg 1770.1548 deleted

From: pianot


I'm all in for swinging away for ya in skid row. I guess I dont understand Baffert either believes he will be able to run in derby or feels can transfer and get enough points for AK by derby time. I suspect the first.