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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 257627 views.

From: pianot


I'm all in for swinging away for ya in skid row. I guess I dont understand Baffert either believes he will be able to run in derby or feels can transfer and get enough points for AK by derby time. I suspect the first.


From: DogsUpWired


100 Days to Ky Dby.

Churchill Dws will flood the court with stalling counter claim objections while Roberto Baffman team claims time is of the essence.

The over/under is whether the court will allow timeliness as a consideration. Time is of the racing and in this court battle.

Over: Court does not adjudicate in timely fashion. Mute as Derby day runs. 

Under: Decision made for one party's contention. Causing enforcement. Don't think court wants to override and create precedent.

 Over  (d)


From: Wintertrian


smartyslew said...

BTW Bafferts 3 yr olds have to be dispersed to other trainers before 2/28/23 

Freudian slip, i read "dispersed" as "disappeared"    LOL  

Anyway, this paper trainer trick should be an embarassment to US Racing but it's not, which actually puts a lot of things in perspective.  About US Racing.  

It reminds me of a neighbor I once had, real trash who beat up on his girlfriend, she called police that night, then got a restraining order on him and made the landlord pay to change the locks (she was a manipulator, too, as it turns out)  . At his hearing he was found guilty, and the judge made a STATE ORDERED declaration that he was not allowed on the premises anymore....state ordered means even if she invited him over he can't be there.   

So she of course, takes him back.  And he walked around like he was clever,  and they were both proud that they had "gotten over" on everybody.  The neighbors didn't call because he was a gun nut and very large, so they thought they might be hurt if they reported this. 

Basically, "power" w/in a group, whether that power is perceived or real, allows these things to happen.  It allows some to be where they have no right to be.   Here is the "but why?" : 

The guy continued to physically abuse his girlfriend, of course.   She acquiesed, and so did everyone in the immediate environment out of fear.  Maintaining STATUS QUO and agreeing to what is not ethically correct.   Seems to be a common model when inside a dysfunctional and corrupt bubble. 


From: smartyslew


LOL eyesmask My mask got in the way when I did that .


From: smartyslew


Edit: Derby Points in this race, 2 entrants Jaces Road 13,Red Route One 5,

More for Southwest stks on message 1547.
Speed Last: 
104 - 7f Arabian Knight, 99-6f Corona Bolt, 96-8.5fJace's Road,  95-6f  Frosted Departure,
 89-8f Hit Show,  88- 8f Sun Thunder, 82- 8.5 f Red Route One ,81-8f, Western Ghent 81-7f  El Toma
Early Pace:Bris number last race EDIT:  60 ft runup in this race

107-6f Frosted Departure, 80 ft runup  22.15   45.38  57.83  1.10.91      stks  3rd
100-6f Corona Bolt , 80 ft runup            22.24   45.92  57.78  1.09.96      stks
99 - 7fArabian Knight,  55 ft runup       22.47   45.78   --       1.09.82     MSW 1st
94-8.5f Jace's Road, ---  50 ft runup       24.46   48.18  -         1.12.59   1.38.30   1.44.85 stks
83-8f Sun Thunder         60  "     "          24.47    48.50 ------   1.13.84   1.39.42    Mdn
83-8f Western Ghent,     60   "  "            23.60    47.95   ---     1.12.66   1.26.59    1.39.54  stks 
83-8f Hit Show *  SCRATCHED           60    "  "           23.79    47.97-------- 1.12.95    1.25.80    1.38.17 all OC  89
83-7f El Tomate              50    "   "          23.66     46.76-------- 1.11.81    1.24.98    MSW
64- 8.5f Red Route One 50 EDIT 2nd        "         25.26     50.41-------- 1.15.41    1.39.41    1.45.53  g2


* 25.32 Last Q


Late Pace :

104  7fArabian Knight-1st, )104 8f Red Route One-2nd,96 )8f Hit Show, 95 6f Corona Bolt, 87 8f Sun Thunder 87 7f El Tomate, 86 8,5f Jace's Road 83 6f Frosted Departure3RD 80 8f Western Ghent

  • Edited January 29, 2023 1:02 pm  by  smartyslew

From: smartyslew


They Put Extra Anejo in the Pool 3 Future bets and 6 or 7 others with no works
for weeks, even a couple of Firsters who won on 12/31/22 and left off others in training

and racing and people betting on these horses with no true  transparency and
other years a few, and not this many, Most people don't have time to research

who is in training. I suggest anybody who bet on those 7 ask for your money back

for them not being Transparent Its as bad as Masking Drugs with Lasix. imo

Extra Anejo exploded onto the scene with a 9 1/2-length win at Keeneland on Oct. 13 to break his maiden at first asking. He earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure and 119 TimeformUS Speed Figure for the eye-catching romp.

But Extra Anejo underwent surgery for a bone chip, and Asmussen has not given any news on his status. Keep in mind that most horses need at least four to six workouts to prepare for a race, and currently he shows zero since the October maiden win.
-- Any Thoughts

  • Edited January 26, 2023 7:03 pm  by  TexSquared

From: smartyslew


Sunday 1/29/23 horses on our list: 4 bafferts and 1 gelding.
anybody going to bet this race. will all 4 be cut to run in the Derby after.
$120,000 to the winner, $40,000 to second, $24,000 to third, $12,000 to fourth and $4,000 to fifth. 124 lbs. 

 2nd Race Santa Anita Park - Sunday, January 29th, 2023

STAKES. 7 Furlongs Dirt. Purse $200,000. San Vicente S. (Grade 2). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. By subscription of $100 each if made on or before Thursday, January 19, 2023, closed with 11 or by Supplementary nomination of $4,000 due at time of entry. $1,500 to enter and an additional $1,500 to start with $200,000 guaranteed ofwhich $120,000 to the winner, $40,000 to second, $24,000 to third, $12,000 to fourth and $4,000 to fifth. 124 lbs. Non-Winners of a Sweepstakes allowed 2 lbs. Non winners of A Race other than Maiden, Claiming or Starter allowed 4 lbs. A trophy will be presented to the winning owner. (01:00 PM) (5)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Havnameltdown 3 C 124 Hernandez Juan J. Baffert Bob
2 Faustin 3 C 120 Vazquez Ramon A. Baffert Bob
3 Fort Warren 3 C 120 Velazquez John R. Baffert Bob
4 Man Child 3 G 120 Herrera Diego A. Hanson Ryan
5 Gilmore 3 C 120 Smith Mike E. Baffert Bob


  • Edited January 26, 2023 8:34 pm  by  smartyslew

From: Wintertrian


DogsUpWired said...

Wide open and I picture a wet-sloppy used-up prior track surface with fog. Look like black + white video. Like American Pharaoh race there.

 Today was 57 degrees and dry (friday).   

Sat NOAA weather report:  A 50 percent chance of showers. Increasing clouds, with a high near 53. Breezy, with a south wind 10 to 20 mph. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.


From: pianot


Yea suspect a potential triple win either way.


From: smartyslew


Reply to message 1547 Southwest Stks:

1st Arabian Knight, 2nd Red Route One both Lasix free

I think Red Route One has 13 Derby Points, 8 from this race for 2nd place.

I think the pre race Data for the Runup in the last race suggested  Arabian Knight 55 ft

Would be to his advantage with Frosted Departure and Corona Bolt's 80 ft runup in their last.

This race was 60 ft. the first 2 finishers were 1 and 2 in late pace in last and both are Non Lasix.