2/11/23 For 3 yr olds I have looked at a few and Some 3's will be added to our list
after the race is over, mainly AW types with nice Marraiges and some from Deep Pockets
Turfway Park - Saturday, February 11th, 2023 Race 7

Gave my thoughts on the sam davis here.  Waiting on possible rain, and fact that this is a very competitive race, makes it non-playable.

Any time a favorite is at as low odds makes it a race that longshot players would be attacted to esp.if you think he is over valued.   I think he is pretty competitive but not sure about at 9/5.

http://forums.delphiforums.com/horse_racing/messages?msg=2315.1

 

I haven't even looked at the Odds, if it Rains Duby has good off numbers

and Prairie Hawk also horse for the course.

Oh Duby is the Fav 9-5 . Value should come from the others IMO

but Duby will be tough. 

Hit Show and Arctic Arrogance are entered in the Withers today

and the only 2 from the Withers in Pool 4 Future bets. Edit Hit Show 1st Arctic 2nd.

Message 1604 is pool 4 Future Bets entrants  for my Futures  Player friends, without the odds,
Last year the first 4 finishers raced Lasix free 2 yr old thru the TC trail, This year more
Trainers are using L in Non point races and we will see how many non L make the derby field.
Compare their non L races to the L races to determine the spread if any.

The N on the right side are contenders with the Sire/ Bms nick that has won previous Derby"s
If a horse you like doesn't have a N along side it the Sire Line/ Bms Line has never won a Derby.
That doesn't mean it can't, One way to look at that is to see how many in the group of 20 doesn't
have a Winning derby nick, the more in the field will help its chances, Because of success There are
Usually More entered with a winning nick. In this pool 24 do and 15 don't. Only one Winner a year.

Another angle I like To use I must pick a Horse with at least 1 Stamina Chef within the first 5 generations
Going back 85 years less than 3 % winners didn't have a stam Chef within 5 generations and Because
of the window of time you can't go back further than that, because  not enough stamina Chefs
to make a difference. Of course it isn't a lock, a percentage play. You can bet more than one horse to cover.

The El Camino Real Winner isn't Nominated, not in this pool, the Other 2 points race Winners Today are.

One other angle I forgot, We have never had a Derby winner with the Nearctic, Northern Dancer Sire line

Married to a Nasrullah Sire Line BMS, never, is this the Year. NO Nor dancer/ API or his sons

Not even Nor Dan / Seattle Slew ,or Bold Ruler Line, Or Nashua line.

Lets Turn it Over Nyquist is the only Derby Winner with a Sire line bred to Northern Dancer BMS line

That traces back to Nasrullah thru Uncle Mo, Caro , Grey Sovereign Son of Nasrullah, thats right I didn't

Bet him either . Forestry Is Nyquist's BMSire Son of Storm Cat.
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First look at the Risen Star Points Race for The Derby Trail, More later
-- 3 entrants non Lasix: 9 Curly Jack, 10 Two Phil's, 13 Victory Formation
Entries On Our List : 4 Determinedly, 5 Harlocap, 8 Tapits Conquest ,9 Curly Jack, 10 Two Phils
13 Victory Information, who is the only entrant on the Beyer Leader Board 90 8f.(OAK)
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I saw A computer pick for the Risen Star  from a race pace chart algorithm first 5 Harlocap, 13 Victory Formation-2nd

and 4 Determinedly-3rd all front runners and the Buzz Horse Closer #12 Crupi  15-1near the Back

Projects the lead 13-5-4-10-14 on the pace with 13 nipped by the 5 1st ,4 3rd.

how do you see it. or even the pace setup.