One other angle I forgot, We have never had a Derby winner with the Nearctic, Northern Dancer Sire line

Married to a Nasrullah Sire Line BMS, never, is this the Year. NO Nor dancer/ API or his sons

Not even Nor Dan / Seattle Slew ,or Bold Ruler Line, Or Nashua line.

Lets Turn it Over Nyquist is the only Derby Winner with a Sire line bred to Northern Dancer BMS line

That traces back to Nasrullah thru Uncle Mo, Caro , Grey Sovereign Son of Nasrullah, thats right I didn't

Bet him either . Forestry Is Nyquist's BMSire Son of Storm Cat.
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First look at the Risen Star Points Race for The Derby Trail, More later
-- 3 entrants non Lasix: 9 Curly Jack, 10 Two Phil's, 13 Victory Formation
Entries On Our List : 4 Determinedly, 5 Harlocap, 8 Tapits Conquest ,9 Curly Jack, 10 Two Phils
13 Victory Information, who is the only entrant on the Beyer Leader Board 90 8f.(OAK)
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I saw A computer pick for the Risen Star  from a race pace chart algorithm first 5 Harlocap, 13 Victory Formation-2nd

and 4 Determinedly-3rd all front runners and the Buzz Horse Closer #12 Crupi  15-1near the Back

Projects the lead 13-5-4-10-14 on the pace with 13 nipped by the 5 1st ,4 3rd.

how do you see it. or even the pace setup.

I like that trifecta myself.....

There is a lot of scenarios out there for this race and interest , that's good ,right, 14 entrants
Strong preps the last couple years for this track to make the Derby Field and be Competitive
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One Scenario the Favorite Victory Formation 3-1 in Post 13 non Lasix  is a bad post for the front Runner with
Speed in the 4,5,10 inside and they have a better shot to be on the lead at the first turn and other speed
in Post 14 turf speedster could outbreak him and get better position to the turn. However I notice many
think he is the class of the field and can get over and are looking for an Over Lay and I'm not sure
what they are looking  for 5-1, 6-1.  
Then There is many Picking the 12 Crupi 15-1 The buzz Mdn Colt who has been competitive
in 5 Maiden races and has a good closing  Kick and using Lasix in his last race . Pletcher trained
odds are coming down.
Some of the entrants have graded race experience foundation that in the low places I hang out in
one Picked the 10 Two Phils 8-1 to Win, another picked the 9 Curly Jack 8-1 to win who has been off 
since 11/22/23  and won a g3, 2nd in a G1 to Instant Coffee when 2 yr old.
The 5 HarloCap 8-1 is getting a lot of respect even from Computer picks with the change from Baffert
To Pletcher could be the Chalk post time,
The Tapit and Cox lovers like the 8 Tapit Conquest 6-1 for this distance.

If I was to play a longshot it would be the 2 Single Ruler 1x, 30-1 with the Strong Derby Nick: Fappiano/ Storm Cat lines I don't know the jock and he needs to be coming at this distance 9f for the big dance forward looking 10f.
EDIT Single Ruler #2   YEAH HE WAS COMING  BABY finished 5 LENGTHS BEHIND THE WINNER Needs More Points
HE BELONGS.

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smartyslew said...

National Treasure SA 08 Jan 1M 94

Update on Baffert horses:   National  Treaure, who seems to have more owners than I have fingers on both hands, has won exactly one maiden .... at 6.5F.   Even money in the Sham, he ran 3rd, in a laughably short field, beating one horse who was vanned off, and the other one was longest odds on the board.    Now 3 works since then, a 3F, a 4F and a 6F (fast) ........seems like they were *easing him* into working again.  Now he's got this horse blazing 6F in 1:11.60.  I'll call it early:  road to ruin for this one.  Lucky to race past 3. 

And Cave Rock has had exactly one work since Breeders Cup, at only 4F. 

Chad Brown's Blazing Sevens is working short little 3F and 4F breezes since the Breeders Cup.  

Cox's Instant Coffee hasn't even worked at all since winning the LeComte.  


Are these bears in hibernation or thoroughbred horses?   LOL   I used to worry about racing such young horses who don't have fully developed musculoskeletal systems.  Now we are racing young horses without fully developed musculoskeletal systems who also stand around in the barn 80%++ in their lives.    Its like human couch potatoes who don't een get their 10,000 steps in.  
 

The biggest, best, prestigious, (money, residual stud fees, fame) race on the planet for owner, trainer, jockey, and even once a year bettor is just eleven weeks away.

These entities meticulously take step, by jog, by cantor, by breeze, by race. 

The campaigns of Derby winners by same connections (right down to Doug O'Neill's brother purchasing at auction Nyquist and I'll Have Another) a great example.

In anything, and especially with an animal* key to the team: plan, implement*, communicate*, evaluations is what gets the roses. 

And agree, 'some may be doing not enough, soon enough...but the recipe to get in the Derby and at the Derby finish line is not a constant practice.

Hibernation is a good word. others are doing the same Hibernation with slower workouts

and will be lucky to have more than 6 lifetime races.
Just had time to do the splits for the Risen Star and I can't see the hoopla for
Crupi and this is a sub par group imo. Only 2 with 25.40 or faster last Q.

A tired group at 8f  Mark.

My Projection for the Risen Star tough field of entrants, 11 have raced with Lasix,

Part of the field longest is 8f and that is a sprint imo, and many are Lacking Foundation

and any can jump up. I was surprised that the 14 turfer Private Creed has the  slowest

Mile time except for the #1 never raced further then 7f., then I noticed on a soft Turf

My first 3 are the same as the Computer picks.
In Order with there post position numbers I'm to busy to break it down.

5-13-4-9-8-7-6-12-10,-11,2,3. 14-1

Last Q 25.40 or faster : Curly Jack 24.14,Tapit's Conquest 25.10, 

I'll Have the 3 Lasix free on my ticket 13-9-10 with the 5 ,8 , longshot 2  underneath

if I decide to bet..