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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 307662 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/23/23

In the Rebel I will do one box of the 4 Lasix free entrants  2 Powerful, 3 Red Route One, 6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game: Rain Or Shine 

I'll wait to see what the track Conditions look like before I make a bet Saturday.

Tough field.. On Paper.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/25/23

   

 I edit and put more angles for the Rebel on Message 1648 this thread
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
best pedigree mud stats Sire only-----------    Sire        BMS AWD                                                                     
 Confidence Game   Starts   1913   % 21         7.1         7.5  
Giant Mischief                        1836   % 19         6.8         7.1
Talladega                                1836   % 19          6.8         6.4
Frosted Departure                 278    %  15         6.6         7.0
Powerful                                  146    %  20         7.1         7.5
Gun Pilot                                  121    %  22         7.3         7.6
Red Route One                       121    %   22         7.3         7.6
Reincarnate                              26     %  23          6.7         7.2
Verifying                                    19     %  21          6.8         7.3
Bourbon Bash                          11     %  18          7.2         6.7
Event Detail                              11     %   18         7.2         6.8
---------

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

  • Edited February 25, 2023 1:56 am  by  smartyslew
PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

2/25/23

it goes more than that,  gdm is full to AK bm

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/25/23

The slop sucks today.

In the Rebel I will do one box of the 4 Lasix free entrants  2 Powerful, 3 Red Route One, 6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game: Rain Or Shine 

I'll wait to see what the track Conditions look like before I make a bet Saturday.

Tough field.. On Paper.

Also at race time might do a mix from the L free and these
 On Our List Racing in The Rebel:5 entrants:1 Verifying, 4 Gun Pilot-rf, 5 Giant Mischief,6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game
I am leaning to 7 Confidence Game and see if the clean face can win this. If he doesn't win the break
he won't have a clean face
many in here are bred for slop

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/25/23

smartyslew said...

Also at race time might do a mix from the L free and these
 
 On Our List Racing in The Rebel:5 entrants:1 Verifying, 4 Gun Pilot-rf, 5 Giant Mischief,6 Reincarnate
7 Confidence Game

that worked. :)  

Congrats.  

I've never not bet Confidence Game,  in any race since the beginning of his career........83% ITM, and he goes off at 18-1?  
I am not a big bettor so only made about $200 on single w/p on him. 

We don't need needles........horses don't need needles before every race. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/26/23

Thank you, Congrats to you, glad you had a good day, my data had a good day

Maybe it helped  others like it helped me ,lot of it worked for this field.

I was focused on numbers 1 thru 7, 8-11 I tossed,  then 2 of the 1-7 I had at the bottom
Reincarnation Wasn't on my win because of his 180 ft Runup in a Mile race but I used him
the first 2 raced 8.5 in last, 3rd and 4th 8f  in last.

of my spread. It doesn't get any better than that. The Winner received a 94 Beyer, so time will tell

how good this group  is and Red Route One was 19 1/2 lengths behind and was still Last after 6f
and was  One of 3 that hit the Historical Guideline I use for The Last Quarter  previous race of 25.40

or faster.24.93 the fastest of the 3, Verifying one of the 3 came in 4th, and Gun Pilot didn't hit the board.

The first 3 were the Fastest entered at the Distance of the race and all 3 are Lasix free.

A lot to like looking at the data.imo

  • Edited February 26, 2023 3:07 pm  by  smartyslew
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

2/27/23

Not giving up  on Gun Pilot, I think like Creative Minister he may make a  good Preakness horse, unless Asmussen can do something with him before that.  I just like him. (in the way I liked Jackson Bend, too, just some horses creep into your heart).    He is still just very very green.   Red Route One has a ton more races than he did, under his belt.  

BTW, Zito is racing at Oaklawn, he's brought a few last year and this year, he just won a race recently.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/27/23

We saw What Graham Motion did with Animal Kingdom, We can't expect that high bar 

with this horse, still might be good on dirt with this breeding.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

2/27/23

How the data did in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn 2/25/23 race 11
What worked in the Rebel and what didn't work. 
Message 1648 this thread rebel runup 60 ft.
----
On our list, I thought I put 2nd place Red Route One on our list
before the the Race, He's on it for sure now.
#7 Confidence Game 1st, Reincarnate 3rd,Verifying 4th, 
-----
Last Quarter  25.40 or better in last race : ITM ,3 Qualifiers , Usually Mid pack, Closer types
#3 Red Route One : 2nd place 24.93 in Last, 23.54 in the Rebel from last 19 1/2 lengths back
#1 Veryfing 4th place 25.29 in last , troubled trip in the rebel,  Gun Pilot OTM
------- 
2 in the race didn't have Sire line/ BMS line winning Derby Nicks, 9 did that's strong for one race
Talladega -last(11),Frosted Departure 8th place both didn't
-----
Runup for the Lead in Last race. and Position early in the Rebel  Powerful 1st -45 ft, Frosted Departure 2nd 60 ft, Verifying 3rd  60 ftGiant Mischief 4th 50 ft, Reincarnate 9th 180 ft**
--------
Runup For the Win : Confidence Game 1st 50 ft, 2nd place; Red Route One 60 ft, 3rd Reincarnate 180 Ft*
4th place Veryfing 60 ft.
------
WGT : 1st 119, 2nd 117, 3rd 122, 4th 122, 5th 117 Bourbon Bash, 6th 117 Giant Mischief
7th Gun Pilot 122, 8th Frosted Departure 117, 9th Powerful 117, 10th  Event Detail 117 Last 117
----
Horse Classification 1st  E5 rated look for a change,  2nd P2  ok, 3rd EP6, 4th E5, 5th EP5,
6th S4, 7th EP6, 8th EP6 might change to E, 9th EP5, E next, 10th P2, 11th E4
-----
Lasix free:1st Confidence Game, 2nd Red Route One, 3rd Reincarnate,9th Powerful 77-1,
----------
Classification Last Race 1st, G3, 2nd G2 sys, 3rd g3, 4th allOC, g1 before,5t OC, 6th s, 7th N2
8th g3 sys, 9th G1, 10th AW, 11th MDN
-------- 
Races on the Improve :2nd Red Route One L free 77-82-90, only one
------
Best speed at distance; Confidence Game 92-1st, Reincarnate 92-3rd, Red Route One 90 -2nd
--------
Class Rating: ???  Verifying 118.9-4th Reincarnate 117.5-3rd Giant Mischief 117.2 6th
Prime Power: Giant Mischief 142.0-WHY? Verifying 139.2-4th  Confidence Game 133.9-WON
-----
Speed Last Race:98 Reincarnate 3rd 95 Verifying-4th 90 Red Route One 2nd 90 Gun Pilot 90 Giant Mischief 89 Powerful 88 Talladega 88 Bourbon Bash 88 Frosted Departure 87 Confidence Game- WON 85 Event D
---
Back speed: 99 Giant Mischief .  98 Reincarnate-3rd 95 - Verifying -4th 92- Confidence Game WON 90 Gun Pilot  89 Event Detail 88 Red Route One -2nd 88 Bourbon Bash 75 Talladega 69 Frosted Departure 61 Powerful 
--------------
early pace last:104* Reincarnate 3rd  102 Confidence Game WON 100 Powerful 95 Talladega 94 Event Detail 94 Frosted Departure 91 Verifying-4TH 90 Giant Mischief 79 Bourbon Bash 78 Red Route One 2nd 78 Gun Pilot : * Runup 180 =red flag
------
Late Pace Last :99 Red Route One 2nd  98 Gun Pilot 95 Verifying 4th 91 Bourbon Bash 85 Reincarnate 3rd
84 Talladega 83 Giant Mischief 82 Powerful 81 Frosted Departure 78 Event Detail 65 Confidence Game  WINNER
---------------------
Off TrackRed Route One 90 sys  2nd,Talladega 88 wts, Frosted Departure 88 sys, Verifying 82sys 4th, Bourbon Bash 66 sys
---------
4 don't have Stamina Chefs within 5 generations, Powerful, Giant Mischief, Talladega, Bourbon Bash, all OTM..
-------
  • Edited February 28, 2023 4:43 pm  by  smartyslew
DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

2/27/23

smartyslew said:

We saw What Graham Motion did with Animal Kingdom, We can't expect that high bar  with this horse, still might be good on dirt with this breeding"

------That great one, Animal Kingdom, was the one who put in the tool kit..

Turf to dirt cha cha..

Still giving Private Creed (24/1 in Risen Star) /appears to date grasser/dirt challenged; a look at, as perhaps he didn't like running later in the day, first time under the lights. Final time was very slow as compared to other Delta Beyers that day with proven horses in substantial purses, as well as favored runners in the Risen Star not running a lick.

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