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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 347416 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/1/23

I noticed The DRF Came out with its new 20 Derby watch list and It's new scribes this year

for their 20 Watch list are from The Southern Cal Area and they have 7 of the 20 are from

the area(Baffert) they cover. When this Happens and they race in the same area, odds are pretty

good they can knock  off each other so keep an eye on them for spreading the area of their races.

4 of them race in the San Felipe Stakes 3/4/23 . Skinner and Practical Move were not Bafferts.

There is a chance A  entrant  not On their list can get Points.

3 on Their list is racing in the Fountain of youth.

4 from the last weeks Rebel Stakes are on this weeks 20. 

-

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

3/1/23

That's what I have harped on: Under the lights, race ran an hour later than usually scheduled, not one of those pointed out ran a lick. First time under the lamps, two turns. 

LOL kids human, even don't play outside: days let alone night 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/1/23

The whole field raced on the same conditions on the Slop. Excuse my Ignorance, I don't get your Harp.

DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

3/1/23

The comment is directed to and on the race real existing and tangible factor of Under the lights. Absolutely nothing to do with you. 

As for the slop as you just mentioned, another real and tangible, that could be another reason none of the DRFers noted didn't run a lick.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/1/23

I never for a minute thought it had anything to do with me.

Thanks for explaining it to me, I never thought about the lights bothering

any of the horses, out west because of the heat some races at some tracks are 

under the lights and for me I don't think about being an issue.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/1/23

Scoobi Quando Might be Winters Diamond in the Rough . Runup 40 ft
4 entrants are on our list Gilmore, Eyes On The King, Bromley-3rd, Scoobie Quando 2nd
8 th raceTurfway Park - Saturday, March 4th, 2023 Derby Points race
STAKES. 1 1/16 Mile Synthetic. Purse $150,000. John Battaglia Memorial S.. FOR THREE-YEAR-OLDS. (09:25 PM) (14)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Good Heart 3 C 118 Elliott Jane Walsh Brendan P.
2 Aristocracy 3 C 118 De La Cruz Fernando Cox Brad H.
3 Gilmore 3 C 118 Ramos Joseph D. Walsh Brendan P.
4 Scoobie Quando 3 C 122 Machado Luan Colebrook Ben
5 Accident 3 G 118 Mojica Orlando Short Tommy C.
6 American Speed 3 C 118 Landeros Chris Cox Brad H.
7 Eyes On The King 3 C b 118 Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph Casse Mark E.
8 Miranda Rights 3 C 118 Hernandez Rafael Manuel Casse Mark E.
9 Freezing Point 3 C 118 Melancon Gerard Lejzerowicz Joe
10 Bromley 3 C
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DogsUpWired

From: DogsUpWired

3/1/23

Pleased to say that you pointed out the slop as well.

To All..if one sees Bus Buzz entered please let me know.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/1/23

EDIT Raced in the Mud 14-99,6-97, 11-96, 10-94 GD  4- 85 one only race.
Entrants on our list: 8 Fort Warren, 10 Lugan Knight, L free 5-6-8-10-12
Best Speed At Distance: Slip Mahoney 98-2nd Lugan Knight 94 Carmel Road 92  Runup 55ft
----
9th race Aqueduct - Saturday, March 4th, 2023 Derby Prep Point Race  PAR 97
STAKES.1  Turn 1 Mile Dirt Sprint.  Purse $300,000. Gotham S. (Grade 3). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey                Runup ft Trainer
1L Clear The Air P6 3 C 118 Gilligan Jack         65  8f AW Walden William
2L Howgreatisnate S6 3 G 120 Acosta J. D.          40 6f  S Simoff Andrew L.
3L Mr. Swagger++EP6 3 C b 118 Olivero Carlos      54  6.5f Avila Juan Carlos
4L Uncorrelated++EP6 3 C 118 Franco Manuel     56 6f sys Brown Chad C.
5 Carmel Road++EP6 3 C 118 Cancel Eric            85 8.5f G2 Yakteen Tim
6 General Banker++EP5  3rd 3 C 118 Pennington Frankie 93 9f G3 Ferraro James W.
7L Transect++EP5 3 C 118 Talamo Joseph         40 6.5f  AW Lobo Paulo H.
8 Fort Warren E5 3 C 118 Toledo Jevian          28 7f  G2 Russell Brittany T.
9L Clubhouse E8 3 C 118 CarmoucheKendrick 59  6f S Pletcher Todd A.
10
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/1/23

Equibase 3 year old speed numbers Leaderboard for 3 year old males all distances 2/28/23
 
1 Arabian Knight          106
2 Hejazi                      105
3 Confidence Game      104
4 Super Chow             104
5 Havenameltdown      103
6 Register                   103
7 Reincarnate              103
8 Asmodeus                103
9 Hard To Figure          102
10 Red Route One       102  
11 Newgate                102
12 Verifying                102
13 Worcester              102
14 Turbo                    102
15 Geaux Rocket Ride 101
16 Cyclone Mischiief    101
17 Bus Buzz               100
18 Eye Witness           100
19 Faustin                  100
20 Kingsbarns            100
21 Slip Mahoney         100
22 Money Run            100
23 Instant Coffee         99
------
edit add Beyer leader Board
Beyer leaderboard for 3 year olds thru 3/2/23
-------------
Hard To Figure               100  8.5f
Newgate                       100   8.5f
Hejazi                            99   6.5f
Worcester                      98    8.5f
Verifying                        97    8 f
Arabian Knight               96    8.5f
Worcester                      96    6.5f
Newgate                        95    8f
Reincarnate                   95    8f
Skinner                         95    8f
Confidence Game           94    8.5f
Havnameltdown             94    7f
National Treasure           94    8f
Asmodeus                     93     8f
Carl Spackler                 93     8f
Henry Q                        93     8.5f     
Register                        93    8f 
Arabian  Lion                 92    8.5f
Instant Coffee               92    8.5f
Red Route One              92    8.5f
Tapit Trice                     92    8f
--------------
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/2/23

smartyslew said...

Scoobi Quando Might be Winters Diamond in the Rough

Race goers and supporters of US racing only look at horses with super trainers and super jocks.   We wonder why U.S. racing is the way it is, but refuse to examine our biases.  

Scoobie's trainer, Ben Colebrook, trained up Knicks Go, for 13 races, including runninng 2nd in the G1 BC Juvie and first G1 Futurity (and paid $140++ to win that)  before he was given to Brad Cox.  But nobody will ever pay attention to a Korean-owned horse, bred in MD, and running under a non supertrainer name.   

Every year, around this time, i wonder about all the ones that will never make the gate, not because they aren't the real deal, but because they don't have the big barn $$ to get developed or even on the radar screen.  

 

Cox didn't make that horse, Ben Colebook did.   Horse had already been racing for 2 years by the time Cox got him, Colebrook developed him from a yearling.   Guarantee though, had the horse had Colebrook's name on it, Knicks Go would have had 10x the odds.   The horse already had everything he needed to be a champion (breeding, etc.)  And had already been well-developed (first 3 years of a horse's training is where the bulk of their foundation is built, from yearling to stakes racer.)

What is wrong with US racing is, in part, because of many of  the racing fans themselves have been hyponotized and they mostly seem to be pro-lasix, anti HISA, and they don't even look at all the hundreds of barns across America where backside people are working their butts off to bring really nice horses to races. 

There is BIG TALENT out there.  But we mostly don't get to see it.  Because owners don't support anyone but super trainers, either.  Those are the only ones they send their good breedings to and if they didn't do it at first, they will eventually transfer their horse.  

So, in essence, .the fans are given what they want.     


God forbid somebody like Sonny Leon should win a KY Derby.   Because then we get to enjoy weeks and months of derision of him, about how he's a nobody, and it's always a fluke when jockeys who aren't Prat or Irad ....... but if drug o'neil or sadler win a big race they are deemed *legitimate wins*.    (despite thier records of numerous medication suspensions, etc.) 

U.S. racegoers will not get a better product unless they express that that's what they want.   For now, we can just expect 3 Bafferts, 3 Asmussens, 3 Coxes, and 3 Chad Browns in fields of 8-10 horses.   People sure seem to love the *hoopla*.  

Colebrook has been in my stable since 2015, due to Limosine Liberal (who ran in 3 BC Sprint graded stakes).   Mostly that horse LOVED Churchill Downs and that was mainly why I followed him.  So yeah, if you had followed Ben you'd have gotten $140 on Knicks Go before he went to Cox.  By the time your horse goes to a super trainer, you may as well forget the odds. 

If Rich Strike had been with Cox with geroux riding, he'd have gone off at 4-1.  Sort of like if a horse gets Irad, heck, if a burro gets Irad, they go off at 2-1 odds.  (despite that everything Cox actaully SAID about Giant Mischief, that it was just a test race to see if the horse could even get 2 turns in a *short* route....).  Yet, "fan bias" overruled everything Cox was saying if you read between the lines of his very own comments. 

That's why I mostly play non stakes races......I don't have to deal with inflated false odds on horses in the every day races at OP. 

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