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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 306908 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/1/23

EDIT Raced in the Mud 14-99,6-97, 11-96, 10-94 GD  4- 85 one only race.
Entrants on our list: 8 Fort Warren, 10 Lugan Knight, L free 5-6-8-10-12
Best Speed At Distance: Slip Mahoney 98-2nd Lugan Knight 94 Carmel Road 92  Runup 55ft
----
9th race Aqueduct - Saturday, March 4th, 2023 Derby Prep Point Race  PAR 97
STAKES.1  Turn 1 Mile Dirt Sprint.  Purse $300,000. Gotham S. (Grade 3). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey                Runup ft Trainer
1L Clear The Air P6 3 C 118 Gilligan Jack         65  8f AW Walden William
2L Howgreatisnate S6 3 G 120 Acosta J. D.          40 6f  S Simoff Andrew L.
3L Mr. Swagger++EP6 3 C b 118 Olivero Carlos      54  6.5f Avila Juan Carlos
4L Uncorrelated++EP6 3 C 118 Franco Manuel     56 6f sys Brown Chad C.
5 Carmel Road++EP6 3 C 118 Cancel Eric            85 8.5f G2 Yakteen Tim
6 General Banker++EP5  3rd 3 C 118 Pennington Frankie 93 9f G3 Ferraro James W.
7L Transect++EP5 3 C 118 Talamo Joseph         40 6.5f  AW Lobo Paulo H.
8 Fort Warren E5 3 C 118 Toledo Jevian          28 7f  G2 Russell Brittany T.
9L Clubhouse E8 3 C 118 CarmoucheKendrick 59  6f S Pletcher Todd A.
10
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/1/23

Equibase 3 year old speed numbers Leaderboard for 3 year old males all distances 2/28/23
 
1 Arabian Knight          106
2 Hejazi                      105
3 Confidence Game      104
4 Super Chow             104
5 Havenameltdown      103
6 Register                   103
7 Reincarnate              103
8 Asmodeus                103
9 Hard To Figure          102
10 Red Route One       102  
11 Newgate                102
12 Verifying                102
13 Worcester              102
14 Turbo                    102
15 Geaux Rocket Ride 101
16 Cyclone Mischiief    101
17 Bus Buzz               100
18 Eye Witness           100
19 Faustin                  100
20 Kingsbarns            100
21 Slip Mahoney         100
22 Money Run            100
23 Instant Coffee         99
------
edit add Beyer leader Board
Beyer leaderboard for 3 year olds thru 3/2/23
-------------
Hard To Figure               100  8.5f
Newgate                       100   8.5f
Hejazi                            99   6.5f
Worcester                      98    8.5f
Verifying                        97    8 f
Arabian Knight               96    8.5f
Worcester                      96    6.5f
Newgate                        95    8f
Reincarnate                   95    8f
Skinner                         95    8f
Confidence Game           94    8.5f
Havnameltdown             94    7f
National Treasure           94    8f
Asmodeus                     93     8f
Carl Spackler                 93     8f
Henry Q                        93     8.5f     
Register                        93    8f 
Arabian  Lion                 92    8.5f
Instant Coffee               92    8.5f
Red Route One              92    8.5f
Tapit Trice                     92    8f
--------------
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/2/23

smartyslew said...

Scoobi Quando Might be Winters Diamond in the Rough

Race goers and supporters of US racing only look at horses with super trainers and super jocks.   We wonder why U.S. racing is the way it is, but refuse to examine our biases.  

Scoobie's trainer, Ben Colebrook, trained up Knicks Go, for 13 races, including runninng 2nd in the G1 BC Juvie and first G1 Futurity (and paid $140++ to win that)  before he was given to Brad Cox.  But nobody will ever pay attention to a Korean-owned horse, bred in MD, and running under a non supertrainer name.   

Every year, around this time, i wonder about all the ones that will never make the gate, not because they aren't the real deal, but because they don't have the big barn $$ to get developed or even on the radar screen.  

 

Cox didn't make that horse, Ben Colebook did.   Horse had already been racing for 2 years by the time Cox got him, Colebrook developed him from a yearling.   Guarantee though, had the horse had Colebrook's name on it, Knicks Go would have had 10x the odds.   The horse already had everything he needed to be a champion (breeding, etc.)  And had already been well-developed (first 3 years of a horse's training is where the bulk of their foundation is built, from yearling to stakes racer.)

What is wrong with US racing is, in part, because of many of  the racing fans themselves have been hyponotized and they mostly seem to be pro-lasix, anti HISA, and they don't even look at all the hundreds of barns across America where backside people are working their butts off to bring really nice horses to races. 

There is BIG TALENT out there.  But we mostly don't get to see it.  Because owners don't support anyone but super trainers, either.  Those are the only ones they send their good breedings to and if they didn't do it at first, they will eventually transfer their horse.  

So, in essence, .the fans are given what they want.     


God forbid somebody like Sonny Leon should win a KY Derby.   Because then we get to enjoy weeks and months of derision of him, about how he's a nobody, and it's always a fluke when jockeys who aren't Prat or Irad ....... but if drug o'neil or sadler win a big race they are deemed *legitimate wins*.    (despite thier records of numerous medication suspensions, etc.) 

U.S. racegoers will not get a better product unless they express that that's what they want.   For now, we can just expect 3 Bafferts, 3 Asmussens, 3 Coxes, and 3 Chad Browns in fields of 8-10 horses.   People sure seem to love the *hoopla*.  

Colebrook has been in my stable since 2015, due to Limosine Liberal (who ran in 3 BC Sprint graded stakes).   Mostly that horse LOVED Churchill Downs and that was mainly why I followed him.  So yeah, if you had followed Ben you'd have gotten $140 on Knicks Go before he went to Cox.  By the time your horse goes to a super trainer, you may as well forget the odds. 

If Rich Strike had been with Cox with geroux riding, he'd have gone off at 4-1.  Sort of like if a horse gets Irad, heck, if a burro gets Irad, they go off at 2-1 odds.  (despite that everything Cox actaully SAID about Giant Mischief, that it was just a test race to see if the horse could even get 2 turns in a *short* route....).  Yet, "fan bias" overruled everything Cox was saying if you read between the lines of his very own comments. 

That's why I mostly play non stakes races......I don't have to deal with inflated false odds on horses in the every day races at OP. 

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/2/23

Stakes at OP are only races where I don't have to look too much at PPs.  I don't use the Brisnet angles because for my home track I just find them kinda wrong, unless you look further than what they have for figures.    Just knowing that track helps me cap it.  I also just listen to the "telegraphing" that trainers like Cox give out (Zito used to be good at this, too, if you listened----I used to hang on his every word, write it down, then go thru it 5x to *read between the lines*.)  Cox "telegraphed"  pretty clearly, w/out coming out and saying it, that Giant Mischief was only in the race to "see" if he could run a short 2 turn route at all (hence why he didn't enter him in a 1-1/8 stakes the weeeks before that)....he just wanted to see if GM could get 2 turns AT ALL.   (Horse got bet down because Irad, who does not ride at OP and if he were on a burro would have been bet down.)   In Feb and March, Cox and Asmussen are trying out different things with their horses to see where they need to go next....and where they don't need to go.  If you study Cox, he's very "particular" where he runs horses and in what races, he has that part down to a science.  So it matters.   Not as much with other trainers, but with him......100% matters.   So I watch to see how he brings a horse along......that tells me where he is thinking of going next or if he's going to use a differnet horse entirely. 

But.......would appreciate some help with races at Gulfstream this weekend ......anybody play that track a lot?  I need good reasons too, otherwise just giving me names won't help me.   I don't trust the Equibase PPs for any races, if that is all you have at your disposal. 

For instance, Brisnet Running Styles are really OFF.  Like if the horse had a strangle-jockey like Leperoux lets say, in last race, their running style on Brisnet PPs will be totally and utterly wrong.  You have to go back to all their other races to see how the horse runs NATURALLY.   I happen to think that a horse, when not forced to run against their natural style, will do well.   Horses who are forced to do otherwise, never do.  or........it eventually catches up to them.   

Some trainers train for what they know how to do, (i.e. look at Kavod).  I shake my head every time I see him, because I actually love this horse, but the trainer only knows how to train the way he is training Kavod.   He's a claiming trainer, like Diordoro, and always will be one.  

Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

3/2/23

smartyslew said...

Only 3 have used Lasix 7-9-10

I'm glad you are keeping track of these!


 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/2/23

His last work is 2/18/23 .

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/2/23

You are Amazing WinterTRIAN Love the young ol LB!!

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

3/2/23

EXCELLENT post, Winter!  I had noticed that about Colebrook and Knicks, and have been a fan since then.  I know it's a real longshot, but I'm putting a few bucks on Scoobie at 300-1!

Heck, I put a few $ on Adam Schenk in the big golf tournament in FL at Arnie's place....at 550-1, and he finished today at -4, in 2nd place!  Miracles can happen!

PISTOL9

From: PISTOL9

3/2/23

I see the one I wanted to bet in the last future but forgot about till it was too late.  Well, seeing he is in the Gotham, probably did not miss anything since Gotham runners have not done much.  Only 8f which I think is 2T at AQU.  Just a watch, no picks.

My 2yo horse in the FOY, but not big on him winning the KD, but should do well.  Would not surprise if he does win, just won't bet as fav.  Still maintaining my boycott of GP and won't bet.  Also won't bet SA with pseudo BBs.  Battaglia?  not interested in that either.  

Still biggest weekend for preps thus far.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/2/23

Yes I think it is 2 turns, I think I had Belmont on My mind .
are you going to share Your secret for the Gotham innocent Boycott GP hmn.

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