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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 311146 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/29/23

I'm going to concentrate on pool 6 future pool first with the amount of time 

I'll have this week, If I have time I'll do the Florida Derby last.
Remember that track is tricky and favors inside horses for that distance.

I suggest try to use class in the order you think they are and see what post they have

Like Forte might be the class for example and the Post he drew has only 2 winners forever

Since they redesigned there track a few years ago at this distance and past splits could tell

a story if the other class has a good pp to hit the bend in the track. from there its position imo.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/30/23

Pool 6 futures Pool opened Today a day earlier than most pools and its closing a day earlier

Saturday 4/1/2023  at 6pm EDT before the 2 Derby preps are run on Saturday . they will run like 40 minutes later

on one race and I'm not sure the time for the other. Forte will probably be still the favorite when it closes.

TexSquared

From: TexSquared

3/30/23

We posted a lead-up for it on Tuesday night:

http://www.horse-races.net/library/kd23future6.htm

Free PP's here:  http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Derby23Future6.pdf

Pool closes 6PM ET on Saturday, so, 40 min before the FL Derby and about 1 3/4 hours before the AR Derby.  

Live odds:  https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager/kentucky-derby-future-wager-pool-6

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/30/23

Thanks Tex, I Haven't read that link yet, I have been busy with the other 2 links and in my travels ran into the 3rd one.

Thanks for putting all of that on here, it helps .

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/31/23

scrubbed Pool odds find posted by Tex message 1872 page 94 2022 2 year olds and 2023 3 yr olds topic.
to look for the odds for derby Future 6. On this forum
--
n stands for  derby S/BMS lines derby winner in the past,     ^ isnumber of Stamina chefs in 5 generations
18 entrants below 20 pts, 22 entrants below 30 pts,  In This pool 6 ...If you play exactas these will be hard to get in the field
some strategy will box from  those 30 pts> (17 entrants) and above look for value. 
Others will play 1 or 2 under 20 or 30 in the  mix and decide how many to use total play.
others will add other tools speed figures , trainer Jock ,trips big gamble, a couple of things I use
or look for whether for the win or exactas, one on this chart n stands for derby Marraiges (nicks)
Sire / Bmsire lines that win the derby races, No n is the Nicks that have never won a derby.
Another tool I use is At least one Stamina Chef within a 5 generation Pedigree and almost all
derby winners in the last 84 years, not more than 3 have not had  a stamina Chef within 5 generations.
The ^ you see for every horse after the number is how many Stamina chefs you see within 5 generations
If you see this 0^ for a horse it means that horse doesn't have a Stamina  Chef within 5 generations
when I see that I toss for the Win in a Derby race. That doesn't mean it can't win the race, I Don't play it
Only Suggestion low percentage play if the horse doesn't have a stamina CHef within 5 Generations
--------
NO DURA Erade 40 Pts, Major Dude 40, Funtastic Again 30  Beat Raise Cain
Name                                                   DERBY POINTS Pool 3 Odds Pool 4 Odds Pool 5 Odds M/L Odds N/A
  1L Angel of Empire 97 g2 9f  n 1^                          54 - -    L3&5 back
  2 Arctic Arrogance 90 G3 9f  RF        1^             16 no n- -
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/31/23

Pool 6 futures chart info :3/31/ 2 pm E.

http://www.horse-races.net/library/kd23future6.htm

odds of interest

#9 Derma Sotogake 10-1

13 Fort Bragg  99-1
14 Forte 2-1 
21 KingsBarn 11-1

26 Practical Move 20-1

27 Raise Cain b 99-1
28 Red Route One 22-1
29 Reincarnate   19-1
30 Rocket Can  55-1
35 Tapit Trice  9-1

40 All Others  24-1

---

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/31/23

Arkansas Derby
---
Derby Pts,  Future M/L , lasix
2LBourbon Bash    5 pts      99-1
Interlock Empire            15f         All Lasix
2LHarlocap                         15 f
3LTwo Eagles River 0 pts   99-1
3LAirtime                             15f        Last 3 L
*2LAngel Of Empire  54 pts   30-1
Rocket Can          40 pts   30-1    L free
Reincarnate         15 pts   20-1   L free
3LKing Russell                     15f    last 3 L
Red Route One    33 pts    25-1   L free
L Kolomio  T                          15-1 last L
----------
* 2 yr old races
------
Back Speed:98 Rocket Can 98 Reincarnate 97 Angel of Empire 96L Two Eagles River 93L Harlocap 89L Airtime 88L Bourbon Bash 88 Red Route One 86Interlock Empire 80 LKing Russell NA Kolomio 
--------
Early last: 
109 Harlocap 100 Angel of Empire 96 Rocket Can 95 Airtime 94 Bourbon Bash 86 *Reincarnate 85 Two Eagles River 82 Kolomio 75 King Russell 70Interlock Empire 68 Red Route One: * Slop & stop
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smartyslew

From: smartyslew

3/31/23

Oaklawn Park - Saturday, April 1st, 2023
STAKES. 1 1/8 Mile Dirt. Purse $1,250,000. Arkansas Derby (Grade 1). THREE YEAR OLDS. (06:24 PM) (11)
PP Horse A/S M/E Wgt Jockey Trainer
1 Bourbon Bash       24.65, 47.19  11.97 38.32  45.41 Last q 26.76 8.5F SYs g2 3 C 119 Gutierrez Reylu Lukas D. Wayne
2 Interlock Empire 25.58  49.62    13.22 25.92 38.52  Last Q 25.30 8f  MSWL 3 C 119 Cabrera David McPeek Kenneth G.
3 Harlocap              23.44  48.00   12.21  39.03  53.37Last Q 31.16 9f  g2  3 C 119 Santana, Jr. Ricardo Asmussen Steven M.
4 Two Eagles River 23.36 47.94   12.68  24.94  37.10 Last Q 24.42 8f oc L 3 G 119 Juarez Nik Hartman Chris A.
5 Airtime                23.56   47.11  12.28  38.56  44.97 Last Q  26.15 8.5f oc L 3 C 119 Torres Cristian A. Diodoro Robertino
6 Angel Of Empire 24.57  48.63  13.05  38.63  51.47 Last Q 25.43 9f  g2 3 C 122 Prat Flavien Cox Brad H.
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TexSquared

From: TexSquared

4/1/23

As of Friday night/Saturday morning (2am ET) SIXTEEN horses are at 99-1 (or longer) odds. 

Forte is the heavy favorite at 5-2, Kingsbarns are Derma Sotogake are 10-1 followed by Tapit Trice at 11-1.  So if you want to toss these 4 short odds horses...

Also if it's useful, free PPs for all of today (Saturday)'s graded stakes here: 
https://www.equibase.com/tdn/pastperformance.cfm?rd=2023-04-01

-Tex

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

4/1/23

Ark DERBY       

Final Q 25.40 or faster Qualifiers.:

9f races : zero, nobody Angel Of Empire closest 25.43 could be a big deal going forward g2 WON  2nd 9f win in a row 2-2 1.49.68
8.5f  Red Route One 25.37 g2 slop, King Russell 25.31 MDN Lasix- 2ND Place 1.50.53
8f :  Two eagles River 24.42 Lasix OC,    Interlock Empire 25.30 Lasix MSW
Kolomio :  Turf 120 ft runup 8f Lasix 23.73
---------
I don't know if anybody has talked about the horses that finished behind Forte in his races, I think its worth a look

how they did in other races and where they fit in this crop.

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