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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 345776 views.
Msg 2049 of 2649
In reply toRe: msg 2048
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

4/30/23

Here is an angle I have used and I don't think I posted it on here very often if at all.

http://horse-races.net/library/derby-auctionprices.htm

 
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Msg 2050 of 2649 to smartyslewsmartyslew 
In reply toRe: msg 2049
Oldbettowin

From: Oldbettowin

4/30/23

Do we use $250,000 for Kingsbarns since that was his yearling price like everyone else?

 

 
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Msg 2051 of 2649 to OldbettowinOldbettowin 
In reply toRe: msg 2050
twoshots

From: twoshots

4/30/23

Kingsbarns went for $800k at auction, per the article.

 
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Msg 2053 of 2649
In reply toRe: msg 2049
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/1/23

Sires Speed, Mares Stamina
Family 4r BMS To Honor And Serve and 2nd Dams Sire Carson City 4r
and Miswaki 16g Have the same Haplotypes , Plus Miswaki is in the sire side
in a PP for Sire Classic Empire stand alone pedigree. 
Miswaki BMS of Galileo whose Dam Hopespringseternal by Buckpasser/ Princequillo
up the middle in a Passing Position is powerful and on the Sire side in that position spotted
Potential is huge .Top Contender to carry 126 pounds in MAY IMO. Trumps DI, CD 1.20 is a concern
-------
Conduit Mare Profile = 6-4-6-11-3   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.96   Triads = 16-21-20  STAMINA, Turn Of foot
Family Summary In 5 generations: A1 (2), 1-r (2), 1-w (1), 2-n (1), 3-l (2), 4-r (7), 4-j (1), 4-m (8), 5-i (1), 6-d (3), 8-f (2), 8-c (2), 9-c (1), 10-c (1), 10-a (2), 12-e (1), 13-b (3), 13-c (3), 16-g (3), 16-a (2), 19-c (2), 21-a (4), 22-d (1), 26 (6),
ANGEL OF EMPIRE C, 26(6)4m(8)4r(7) Odds to be 4th Derby Winner  without  a stam Chef in 5 gen. Good
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses
...[Message truncated]
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Msg 2054 of 2649
In reply toRe: msg 2053
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/1/23

ANGEL OF EMPIRE   (USA) b. C, 2020 {26} DP = 4-4-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.20 - GSV = 47.57 - 6 Starts, 4 Wins, 1 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: $1,069,375
CLASSIC EMPIRE (USA)
b. 2014 (27)
9-5-1-1
$2,520,220
115 f, 3 r, 2 w, 0 SW
AEI 1.31		 PIONEEROF THE NILE (USA)
dkb/br. 2006 (27)
10-5-1-1
$1,634,200
811 f, 585 r, 395 w, 48 SW
AEI 1.70		 EMPIRE MAKER (USA)
dkb/br. 2000 (40.14)
8-4-3-1
$1,985,800
1286 f, 1040 r, 537 w, 68 SW
AEI 2.25		 UNBRIDLED (USA)
b. 1987 [BI] (62.31)		 FAPPIANO (USA)   b. 1977 [IC] 16-a
GANA FACIL (USA) ch. 1981 
...[Message truncated]
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Msg 2055 of 2649 to smartyslewsmartyslew 
In reply toRe: msg 2053
Northof64

From: Northof64

5/1/23

Plus Flavian Pratt. Thank you Smarty

 1
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Msg 2056 of 2649 to Northof64Northof64 
In reply toRe: msg 2055
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/1/23

My top 10 before the Draw 5/1/23
Confidence Game
Forte
Tapit Trice
Two Phils
Hit Show
Disarm
Reincarnate
Angel Of Empire
Continuar
Skinner
 
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Msg 2057 of 2649
In reply toRe: msg 2056
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/1/23

Reincarnate and Verifying are Going, Maybe Derma and KingsBarns

Followed by 2 who Rate and 10  Stalkers who could run into each others 

trying to get position, and not let the closers get by  trying to fit in the only

hole left. I can see this if 6f is 112+ range, The Fla Derby time is suspect again

like last year, Santa Anita fast splits are suspect to compare to other tracks and what, 2 from it are in

Up front the 3 that won at CD are on my ticket. no doubt about it

 
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Msg 2058 of 2649 to smartyslewsmartyslew 
In reply toRe: msg 2056
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

5/1/23

I didn't like Hit Show much prior, and now getting the dreaded #1 post, I would be betting him in my last place tri/super.....I really wish such a bet would be offered :)

Your other top 10 drew pretty well, actually, except for Tapit Trice, and I don't even mind Continuar breaking from the far outside.  Maybe he'll take the same line as last year's #20!

Good luck, Smarty, I'll be playing several of your top 10 in my exactas, tri's and super's!  The only ones I'll be using not in your top 10 will be Practical Move on a few underneath, and Sun Thunder specifically in the 4th position in some supers.

 
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