25 derby contenders last race splits with last 1/8 for 9f preps and Last Q for all races
Historical  times are 25.40 or faster for Last Q, last 1/8  12.80 >, Runup for each race
Dubai runup is 0, Wood 88,Santa Anita 85, Ruby 80, Florida 70, Ark 60, Blue Grass 50, 5 entrants
Lexinton 50, Louisiana 45, (Sunland 20 (MTB)) 15 of 25 entrants  Last Q time is 25.40 or better
This Many is new for the 21st Century, we have had years with 4 or 5 . Tricky year for speed.
+ Kingsbarns Slowest Mile time 1st 20  39.13  with historic Final Q 24.31 and Lasix in last RAW TIME 9 3/16

-------------------------  start ---2f ------4f-------6f-------8f--------9f---last 1/8 ---last Q  ----------   Off L =Lasix in previous   

--------

Without 2 of the Japanese Colts on here ,3 from the Santa Anita Derby

2 on AW or turf and Forte and Practical Move 103 a new 3 yr old high 8.5f 1.41.3

3 back , this is the top tier to go over first looking for different styles and what

these numbers don't tell you is where I like to start pro and con. the first thing

that jumps out at me is why 3 from one race are they the Cream of the crop

Forte last 3 races are going in the wrong direction according to the speed numbers

the variant doesn't agree with that and bit by bit maybe better and watch replays

for all and in forte case to me looks like he hasn't been cut loose yet watch and decide

for your self. For Me this is where I start, Listening to others suggest I'm still in the starting Gate

5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3
24 Mandorin Hero       97+3

23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5,
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3

Edit ; The track variant used is the DRF track variant.

Without 2 of the Japanese Colts on here ,3 from the Santa Anita Derby
2 on AW or turf and Forte and Practical Move 103 a new 3 yr old high 8.5f 1.41.3
3 back , this is the top tier to go over first looking for different styles and what
these numbers don't tell you is where I like to start pro and con. the first thing
that jumps out at me is why 3 from one race are they the Cream of the crop
Forte last 3 races are going in the wrong direction according to the speed numbers
the variant doesn't agree with that and bit by bit maybe better and watch replays
for all and in forte case to me looks like he hasn't been cut loose yet watch and decide
for your self. For Me this is where I start, Listening to others suggest I'm still in the starting Gate

5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3
24 Mandorin Hero       97+3
23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5,
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3variant

--

This is similiar to your Angel  DI   CD

Last years Derby Winner Mandaloun :DP = 2-3-1-0-0 (6) DI = 11.00   CD = 1.17 has only 2 Chefs in the first 4 generations

with a Stam Chef in the 5th generation, and stamina Mares and Sires in the 6th generation Producing some Stamina in The 5th Generation

Not to many new Chefs in the last 7 or 8 years. We will be seeing a lot of this with the Chefs pushed back to the 5th 6th  generations.

Gerh said...

Interesting in relation to foundation.Personally,I think both are quality animals but this is too much too soon

Yes I prefer foundations for classic distance routers to be built slowly, and over time, by a patient trainer who is not looking to leap to the breeding shed at end of age 3.   Too much too soon is spot on. 

I want to see classic distance horses running at age 4, 5, 6, etc.   You can't do that if you don't build a foundation slowly, and certainly not when a very young, non-mature musculoskeletal system is still developing, at age 2-3.    I feel sorry for horses put thru The Baffert Program.    TBs aren't quarterhorses and shouldn't be trained like them. 

To that, some people will say to me "he is a trainer, you are not, and he's been successful doing it that way"

My answer is that there are many roads to success........some of them you don't have to take, and maybe shouldn't.  There are a myriad of roads to success, and you can choose the road that benefits the horses as well.  First, Do No Harm.     

Wintertrian said:

I feel sorry for horses put thru The Baffert Program.    TBs aren't quarterhorses and shouldn't be trained like them. 

30 years ago we'd call it the Lukas Program, same thing. How many young horses ruined. 

Oaks play for today

Oaks play for today

This angle caught my attention. Horses sold at auction for over $500k have drastically underperformed over the last few decades, not only for the win but even to be in the money. I put in a smallish tri box based on this.

see message 2111 EDIT

For Me this is where I start, Listening to others suggest I'm still in the starting Gate

5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3
24 Mandorin Hero       97+3

23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5,
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3

Edit ; The track variant used is the DRF track variant.

Without 2 of the Japanese Colts on here ,3 from the Santa Anita Derby
2 on AW or turf and Forte and Practical Move 103 a new 3 yr old high 8.5f 1.41.3
3 back , this is the top tier to go over first looking for different styles and what
these numbers don't tell you is where I like to start pro and con. the first thing
that jumps out at me is why 3 from one race are they the Cream of the crop
Forte last 3 races are going in the wrong direction according to the speed numbers
the variant doesn't agree with that and bit by bit maybe better and watch replays
for all and in forte case to me looks like he hasn't been cut loose yet watch and decide
for your self. For Me this is where I start, Listening to others suggest I'm still in the starting Gate

5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3
24 Mandorin Hero       97+3
23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5,
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3variant

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Its Chaotic, I'm starting Over right here: 
5 Two Phils ,24 Mandarin Hero are the only 2 left from this angle
these 2 will be on my ticket for sure and add 17 Derma Sotogake
and I will add more as I go on. stay tuned.
_________________

5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3Scr
24 Mandarin Hero       97+3

23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T Scr
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5, Scr
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3 SCR

Edit ; The track variant used is the DRF track variant.