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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 353892 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/6/23

see message 2111 EDIT

For Me this is where I start, Listening to others suggest I'm still in the starting Gate

5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3
24 Mandorin Hero       97+3

23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5,
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3

Edit ; The track variant used is the DRF track variant.

Without 2 of the Japanese Colts on here ,3 from the Santa Anita Derby
2 on AW or turf and Forte and Practical Move 103 a new 3 yr old high 8.5f 1.41.3
3 back , this is the top tier to go over first looking for different styles and what
these numbers don't tell you is where I like to start pro and con. the first thing
that jumps out at me is why 3 from one race are they the Cream of the crop
Forte last 3 races are going in the wrong direction according to the speed numbers
the variant doesn't agree with that and bit by bit maybe better and watch replays
for all and in forte case to me looks like he hasn't been cut loose yet watch and decide
for your self. For Me this is where I start, Listening to others suggest I'm still in the starting Gate


5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3
24 Mandorin Hero       97+3
23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5,
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3variant

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Its Chaotic, I'm starting Over right here: 
5 Two Phils ,24 Mandarin Hero are the only 2 left from this angle
these 2 will be on my ticket for sure and add 17 Derma Sotogake
and I will add more as I go on. stay tuned.
_________________

5 Two Phils               98AW+11,78-6,82+1,69--,83+2
2 Practical Move        97+3,100--,103+11(8.5f)91-4,77-3, 2 races at 3Scr
24 Mandarin Hero       97+3

23 Major Dude           93AW+6,94+2T,85+1T,81-6T Scr
21 Skinner                 96+2,96--,95L+11,65-23,89-5, Scr
1 Forte                     93+2,90+1,88-1,80--,90 +2, msw 91+6    6 races 2 at 3 SCR

Edit ; The track variant used is the DRF track variant.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/6/23

to add to message 2118 my chaotic Derby picks good luck to all bettors

And I will add more as I go on. stay tuned.
Two Phils doesn't have a Stam chef in 5 gen & bad nick he could become 1st
not my top pick  3-22-17-4-16-5-14
I will do one exotic bet with 23 King Russell on it
I will be using these 7 in my spreads, 
because of the pace i'm worried about Verifying ,and Disarm bred for 4 yrs imo
 
Because of who's left A win Bet on L free *22 Mandarin Hero
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

5/6/23

I am also including King Russell with Sun Thunder in the 4th position now in some supers......predicting a fast pace

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/6/23

Congratulations To the connections of Mage and the Forum Members who had him to win

and good exotics payouts. WAY TO GO

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

5/6/23

I should have listened more to you about Two Phil's......I would have had the super!

But I was happy to land on Mage, though late in the day....enough to make a little profit on the day.  Watching his last two races again an hour before the race sealed the deal for me, in combination with the Pat Day Mile angle.

And Disarm looked good grinding it out for 4th!  Just beat Hit Show for me in the match up I bet :)

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/6/23

I love Mages pedigree and he really impressed me in the Florida Derby and because of

Foundation concerns I let him beat me, saying that lightly played in exotics.

Two Phils imo rated better than any horse in the field and did just that today

did you ever watch any of his Jocks Interviews or the race he was wearing a camera

he loves to run covered and when he does he gets relaxed and he slips between

horses and moves forward almost always forwardly placed, I watched one race he was

in 7th place and covered only 2 1/2 behind the lead and slipping in between horses

it was a clinic. Most observers looked at what place he was in and not how close to the lead he was.

princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

5/7/23

No, I didn't......but I should have.  I let my bias against Turfway influence me, as well as the Instant Coffee defeat, as I didn't think that much of that horse.  It was stupid.  I also thought the move to run in the Jeff Ruby was because it was a simpler route to the Derby (which it was)....but I should have also noticed Major Dude doing well earlier, just like I noted the success of Fort Bragg suggested the importance of the FL Derby in my thread about the Pat Day.

It was an easy super to hit if you liked Mage as much as I did.....and it paid 15K.  I had Disarm and Angel on every ticket with Mage.

Sometimes you just beat yourself!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/7/23

I thought Mage would be special and I really liked his Pedigree and Performance

In  the Florida Derby and Bowed my neck Concerns with his Foundation for the win.

And had him in the wrong places for my exotics, and I was way wrong about the win

and I screwed that up and I hope Somebody made money with my angles with Two Phils

He ran a hell of a race. 2.01.77 and change one length behind Mage in 2nd place

------------------------------------------------------------------------

2023 Derby Winner Mager 5g, 4-18-20
Mage another Smart Strike this time thru Curlin, Last year thru Keen Ice
Mage DERBY time 2:01.57, Faster Raw time then his sire, Bms,Grand Sire & S Bms
 
BMS Big Brown 2.01.82, Sire Good Magic 2nd sy 2.04.7
GR Sire Curlin     2.02.97 3rd    S BMS Hard Spun 2nd 2.02.62 Both 2007
------
Edit to add Preakness Times 2007 GR Sire Curlin 1st 1.53.46 by hd Street Sense 2nd, SBMS Hard Spun 3rd
2008 BMS Big Brown 1st  1.54.80
Sire Good Magic 4th 2018 to winner Justify 1/2 and 2 necks behind 1.56.47
--------

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/8/23

Right what do we know, Lol I thought and still do that mage could be special 

and bowed my neck , even after that message where both he and Kingsbarns raced

3 times at 3, and others that races at 2yr olds ,only raced twice at 3.

It was the lack of workouts more than anything else before they were 3 .

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

5/26/23

2023 DERBY 1st FIVE  9 generation Linebreeding all genders Mage top 4 influence 10 % or higher 4x5 or closer
18 crosses of Nearco big 3 sons listed below with a 5x5 Influence
MAGE C, 2020 DP = 2-4-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.57  5g  Good Magic 12c/Big Brown 5h  First
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
MR PROSPECTOR 13c
...[Message truncated]
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