Horse-Races.Net HRN's Horse Racing Forum

Hosted by Cindy Dulay (CindyDulay)|Horse-Races.Net

This is a place for friendly and civil discussion of horse racing of all types including handicapping. Hosted by HRN: Horse-Races.Net

  • 546
    MEMBERS
  • 36970
    MESSAGES
  • 0
    POSTS TODAY

Discussions

2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 351333 views.
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23


Belmont Stakes winners 9 generation line breeding  Last 10 years
Checkout the winners most influential horses up close in their pedigrees 
See who shows up the most in 10 years of pedigree and the Per cent of blood.
Mr P has the highest blood in 5 winners and shows up in 8 winners. Nor Dancer in 9 winners
Which of their progeny shows up the most and The Highest percentage of influence
Horse , TFF    closest horse Tff gen  per cent Progeny side influence(Dam, Sire, Even=both)
--------
Mo donegal  3g  Mr P 13c 4x5 AGR 12.49% Preach 2f Forty Niner 1n DAM , NOR DAN 2d 6 Sons 4x5 EVEN 11.57 %-
Essential Quality 1x Fappiano 16a 4x4 20.26%, Unbridled 1r, Jeano 1x  Even, 
Mr P 13c 3x4  20.25% Fappiano 16a,Gone West 2f, Preach 2f even,
Nor Dan 2d 4x5 11.49% Heros Honor 1x , Nijinsky 8f,Stoem Bird 4j  even, 
SEC. 2s 4x5,12.30% Weekend Surprise 3L Terlingua8c. Secrettame 2f DAM side
-------
Tiz The Law 9e  Mr P 13c 4x5 11.38% Fappiano 16a, Preach 2f,Forty Niner 1n,Crafty Prospector 1L Sire   
Nor Dan 2d  5 Sons 5x5 8.20% Sire,  Seattle Slew 13c 5x5 8.08% API 3L, Seattle Song 4m  SS ARoma 19  Sire
----
Sir Winston 1n Vice Regent 10c 4x4 19.30% Deputy Minister10a, Regal Intention22a,Even
Nor Dan 2d  4x5   14,27%, Vice Regent 10c,Nureyev 5h, Dam, Mr P 13c 4x5 13.20%, Afleet1h , Prime Prospect 1c, Even
-----------
Justity 1h, Mr P 13c 3x4 21.59% even, Preach 2f, Yarn 2f ,Prime Prospect 1c ,Love Style 1w
Nijinsky 8f, 4x5 13.72 %, Baldski 21a , State 2f , Likeable Style 1w, even
Nor Dan 2d  5x5 10.84 %, Nijinsky 8f,Vice Regent 10c, Storm Bird 4j even
------
Tapwrit 19, S Slew 13c 4x4 14.18% AP Indy 3l, Sodeo Sodeo 19 even, 
In Reality 21a 4x5 11.39%, Valid Appeal 2c, Charedi 1r, Moon Glitter 3o Sire
Mr P 13c 4x5 10.94%, Fappiano 16a, Preach 2f, Northern Prospect 9f, Sire
------------
Creator 2o  Mr P 13c 4x5 11.24% Fappiano 16a, Preach 2f Sire,Nijinsky 8f 5x5 9.92 % State 2f,Ruby Slippers 3o Sire
Nor Dan 2d 5x5 7.78 % Nijinsky 8f, Northfields 4rSire, Nasrullah 5x5 7.03 % Glamour 1x and 5 sons, Sire
--------
American Pharoah 14, Bold Ruler 8d 5x5 7.81 % Secretariat2s, Chieftain9h,Key To The Kingdom2n ,Cornish Prince 1s Even
Northern Dancer 2d  5x5 8.15% El gran Senor8f Storm Bird 4j  Even
-----------
Tonalist 3L Nor Dan 2d 4x5 10.88% NiJinsky 8f ,TopSider 5h Sire:Nijinsky 8f 5x5 11.37%,State 2f, Ruby Slippers 3o sire
Mr P 13c 4x5 10.83%, Fappiano 16a, Preach 2d, Sire; Buckpasser 1x 5x5 8.84% Magic 1r, Toll Booth3l , Lassie Dear 3l Sire
-----------------------
Palace Malice 2s Nearco 4r 5x5 7.59% Nasrullah 9c,Royal Charger 9c,Nearcticf 14c, Dam
Turn To 1w Sir Gaylord2s, H To Reason4n,Cyane 16b DAM: Nor Dan 2d 5x5 10.13% Nureyev 5h, Vice Regent 10c Even
--------------------------------
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23

Compare How Angel Of Empire And Arcangelo 9 gen Linebreeding Compares to the 
Last 10 Belmont Winners Linebreeding in message 2131. Look for High Percentage AGR
and The more Influence Closer than 5x5 Generations to the target horse and the who
Like the ones listed on the 10 belmont winners in message 2131. Look for Many Progeny
like 3, 4, 5 Names in the same horse besides MR P and Nor Dan like Fappiano Or Nijinsky for example. 
I score this higher than I do the Nicks ; Sire/ Bms.
------
ANGEL OF EMPIRE C, 2020 DP = 4-4-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.20 26, Classic Empire 4m/ To Honor And Serve 4r

...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23

Two More to compare to The Belmont Winners Linebreeding on message 2131 and to each other

FORTE C, 2020 DP = 4-4-5-1-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 1x, Violence 1g/Blame 5h
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23

2 more possible for the Belmont tp compare to Message 2131.
--

IL MIRACOLO C, 2020 DP = 1-4-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.50,26, Gun Runner 17b,/ Tapit 3o
Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23

Check this Pair Out and compare to the Belmont winners message 2131 this thread.
-----
RAISE CAIN C, 2020 DP = 5-4-8-3-0 (20) DI = 1.86   CD = 0.55,14c, Violence 1g,/Lemon drop Kid 3l

...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23

Here is 2 Tapits to check out and compare to other Tapitis on message 2131 that won the Belmont
Stakes and Remember 3 of the Tapit winners were P/N types.

TAPIT SHOES C, 2020 DP = 4-11-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.64,8h,Tapit 3o/Flower Alley 17b

Horse Inbreeding Stats Crosses Lines Blood% Influence AGR
MR PROSPECTOR  13 c
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23

2023 belmont Contenders splits from their last race.
Angel of Empire     24.30,  48.38  11.84   37.02   2.01.70 10t Derby G1
                                           24.08  23..46  25.18  24.68 lastQ
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Arcangelo             25.05   49.35   13.54   37.59   49.71  1/8 12.12  g3 9f
                                         24.30   24.19   24.05  Last Q 24.15
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  
Forte                    24.69   47.74    11.54    36.87   49.37  1/8 12.50 g1 9r  
                                        23..05    23.80   25.33   Laast Q 25.14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hit Show              23.38    46.44   10.83    36.37  2.02.82  10fDerby G1
                                         23.06   24..39   25,54   26.45 Last Q
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Il Miracolo            23.02   45.34     10.48    37.12 last Q 26.64 8f allo OC 100,000
                                        22.32      25.14   26.64
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National Treasure 23.95  48.92     13.49    37.07   55.12  last 3/16 18.05 Prk G1
                                         24.97    24.57    23.58         23.95 Las
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/2/23

Subject: Belmont Stakes Winner key tf families
Belmont Stakes key winners tf families in 5 generations
With total  Foundation families 5 and 8 in 5 generations in parenthis
Remember the 5 generations are fed by the the Engine room 6 & 7th
Generations This is the Foundation for 12f . not sire side, not Dam side
The Influence comes from  Family reines Mares hooked to Sires or Chefs
to influence from a Family branch at least 4 lines or more within 5 generations.
Tail ff family has at least 6 lines, Sire line tff at least 5 lines, Bms Line at least 4.
13 of 22 have 13c, 6 3o-5 last 8,7 2f,10 fam 2,19 5 or 8, 8f-9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mo Donegal Uncle Mo/ Pulpit; 3g(6)8c(7)13c(7)2f,  (10)
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
Wintertrian

From: Wintertrian

6/3/23

smartyslew said...

Remember the 5 generations are fed by the the Engine room 6 & 7th
Generations This is the Foundation for 12f . not sire side, not Dam side

A good reminder.  I remember you saying this from years gone by.  I have to learn more about how to use your wisdoms.  

I will still have to think over Archangelo.  Sort of like you had foundation issues with Mage in the KY Derby, this one also has very little foundation AND is carrying 8 extra pounds than he has ever carried before.  For 9.5 or 10F that wouldn't worry me as much, but for 12F I have to worry a bit. 
 

BTW, I always ignore Tiz the Law's win.......all that speed, and the race was shortened during pandemic year so it wasn't 12F.  

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

6/3/23

Those are all good concerns, I forgot that Arcangelos 9f win , was a one turn 9f event

and thats not the same as a two turn race and saying that ,the Peter Pan has been a good feeder

for the Belmont Stakes and he is a May Foal  playing catchup that. is very relaxed runner imo

and I like his pedigree and splits in that one turn race and got up in time to catch a very good one turn

type for the win. 

The field is strong imo and I'm showing the linebreeding for this group to compare to some of the past winners

because it shows how the breeders are changing and we need more races on a safe track

to card longer distances to show how they deserve to be competitive on the World stage

and it doesn't have to be on dirt. The linebreeding Shows How important the Godolphin . Byerley Turk,

and Darley Arabian lines still are its not P/P Sire and Bms lines that we are brainwashed with,

3 of the Tapit Belmont wins were P/N nicks, and the pedigrees are filled with Darley Arabian (DA)

Godolphian (G) , Byerley Turk (BT)  that are getting pushed back further every year,
  I suggest we think P/ Da, Da/P, Da/G, G/Da, B/DA, B/G, G/B and get away from P/P. P/n. P/P N/N
Sire and BMS only we would be better served than looking at only 2 lines of the the 32 lines that run thru the

5th generation pedigree,

TOP