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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 353298 views.

From: smartyslew


What do you call Low and how do you arrive at that.

Are you talking the Female 8 gen. or the 9 generation for all.or both

are you looking for 12f type  to seperate from shorter distance itm type

g1 to Oc, etc, the who , who show up the most in the pedigree's that win.  up the closest % or 4x4 type

D0 you notice the Rasmussen Factor females that are 6Sx6d or closer in the pedigree and % and Influence

The same Siblings that show up and hardly any P/P type.

Sun Princess & Nasrullah, Secretariat & Sir Gaylord, Nor Dancer & Raise The Standard, 

Round Table & Monarchy  both by PrinceQ,, Natalma & Cosmah,  Dr Fager and Magic.

Hyperion & Pharamond, Preach &Yarn

I look for 3 or more of these sets in the same pedigree plus the top sires like Nor Dan & Mrp

and their top sons or API Line.


From: smartyslew


Here is the Average winning distance for the Sires and BMSires for the 9 entrants

for the 2023 Belmont Stakes. I suggest Not to fall in love With the  Tapit hype

for the 12f Distance, there are others like AP Indy and Tapits Sire Pulpit and I think Nijinky

that appear in more Belmont Winners in 5 generations than Tapit does.

6/10/23 Belmont Stakes 2023 3 yr olds 1 1/2 mile g1 Dirt Race  11, 9 entries
---------------------------------AWD--- AWD 
EP6  1 Tapit Shoes  20-1           7.6         7.4
P2    2Tapit Trice  3-1                 7.6         7.1
P4   3 Arcangelo  8-1                 7.8         7.6
E5   4 National Treasure  5-1     7.4         7.7
EP3 5 Il Miracolo  30-1               7.3         7.6
P3   6 Forte  5-2                          6.7         7.3
P3   7 Hit Show 10-1                   7.1         7.6
S     8 Angel of Empire  7-2         6.8         6.8
S     9 Red Route One 15-1        7.3         7.6

From: Wintertrian


Nobody I know would handicap the Belmont Stakes based strictly on "Tapit".   Who even does that?  Weekend players for whom that has become a meme.  

It's also easy to look at the top 10 sires list and start to understand why certain bloodlines are fashionable --- and therefore, their influences show up in so many races during a given year.   Trends don't last forever, however, we get so many of "those" breedings in crops for a few years it's almost impossible to avoid. 

If somebody "falls for that", then they aren't doing their homework.    Every few years we see these kinds of crops, based on the commercial breeder top sales. 

So, of course these horses end up in top races, as they are purchased by big spenders who send their horses to super-trainers.   The ones that don't take that trajectory, we will never know about.  That' one of the problems as I see it. 

And as we know, not all the super trainers are necessarily the BEST trainers.  They just have more horses to play around with compliments of the big spenders. 

There are common "traps" that handicappers fall into, and while understandable, most don't do the kind of work it requires to win stakes races, not just graded stakes race.  

Into Mischief very popular, just not a bloodline I love all the time and I am very careful using them. 



From: smartyslew


You don't know all of those people on the internet that love the 4 Tapit Sire line

Winners and I don't know them either.


From: Wintertrian


smartyslew said...

Tiz The Law 9e  Mr P 13c 4x5 11.38% Fappiano 16a, Preach 2f,Forty Niner 1n,Crafty Prospector 1L Sire   
Nor Dan 2d  5 Sons 5x5 8.20% Sire,  Seattle Slew 13c 5x5 8.08% API 3L, Seattle Song 4m  SS ARoma 19  Sire

I dunno if I said this already but I dis-include Tiz the Law in any angles involvling the Belmont.   This was the pandemic year when the race was at a different date, as well as only 1-1/8 miles long.   Tiz the Law win can only be misleading when doing any kind of Belmont Stakes analysis and so I don't like looking at it as it will confuse me.

One other thing I do, NOT SUGGESTING ANYONE ELSE DO IT, is before I start looking at the winners, I also dis-include the Bafferts.  I can't trust those.   So my first pass is always w/out any Bafferts and w/out Tiz the Law.   I just feel I get a more "honest" group to look at that way.  

Just a pet peeve I employ which seems to help me, but my brain works differently as do we all. 

I was having that convo with someone recently.  Someone might ask  "what time is your store open until?"  and someone else might ask "what time do you close?"   etc.   There are variations and shortcuts that just make more sense to my brain, so removing certain horses from "analysis" just helps me.  I don't trust Bafferts, I don't believe they truly run to their breeding. 

aNYWAY, GOOD STUFF, THANKS FOR POSTING IT.....I am always wondering what horses are truly representative of Belmont winners. 


From: smartyslew


Yes I knew that when I put that out there to begtin with and forgot to highlight it

and you already brought it up and its a good test to learn for some to do their own

due diligence beside you and me , it means you are the only one paying attention and

they could pick it up after your post added to the conversation and i'm leaving it and many

other angles I have left tidbits out and it shows you are the only one paying attention for some of the angles

that are laid out for people to find and notice on their own. It baffles me because its so easy to notice

and nobody mentions it. Or Maybe they are paying attention and only lurk.

2020 and Tiz The Law 9f romp is all over the internet and each Capper should know

that and thats on them.


From: smartyslew


I'm sorry it upsets you, and it's a pet peeve I hope you retain something positive from it

even with its defects.

Rule # 99 1/2 When you decipher someones Analysis remove certain horses from it your self

especialy if the rest of it is positive ,that makes sense to my brain and don't cherry pick

I was behind on your sentences that  were  added after my first response. Sorry for that


From: smartyslew


Its all Good, you know I love your response's and feedback and I always get something positive

from you , i mean always. you absorb everything like nobody else I have met.



Finally had a chance to look through some pedigrees. To my novice eye, it looks Tapit Trice has one of the lesser ones on the BMS side for this race.


From: smartyslew


He has AP Indy on both sides that's good and perfect Placement and The Tapit/ Mr P nick that Essential Quality had, the Only P/P Tapit Sired Belmont Winner ,the Other 3 were P/N types.

Tapit has a test this year as A BMSIRE, and this field of 9 Has a good crop of Pedigrees for 12 f distance

and the pace will be a key and some like National Treasure to Wire this field,

that will be tough with only 3 wire Jobs in the 21st Century, 2 of those Triple Crown winners and Da Tara.