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I don’t see Scotland as a need the lead type. I think his pace is the same, it’s just the shorter distances that puts him a few lengths back in the early stages. Yes I worry about distance with Scotland, but I also like that he runs his pace no matter what the others do around him. That’s the mark of a runner that can get the classic difference. Two things about Scotland and Saudi Crown. Saudi Crown’s better races have come in the mud, and Scotland’s bad races were on an off track. I don’t think Saudi Crown is as good as sliced bread, and I’m still holding hope for Scotland. Saudi Crown fits with Forte, Tapit Trice et Al filling out the tri and super at short odds. Mage, Geaux Rocket, Arcangelo, White Abarrio, Arabian um… knight? Lion? (The one that won the PAC Classic) have chances for a win. I hope Mott points Scotland to the Pegasus in January.
I agree Scotland before Saturday broke 1st in 3 races including the Curlin and Wired the field 9f race.
two of those 3 races were 9f, and 10f and near or on the lead , 2 of his wins sprinting he won from off the pace.
Brad Cox said He may enter Saudi Crown In the Mile or the Classic
and Leaning to the Classic ,he thinks he can get another furlong with that win in The Penn Derby.
He was awarded a 105 beyer in the slop race. I hope he runs in the Mile. Try 10 f wnen he's four next year. 112 E
"Saudi Crown Conduit Mare Profile = 6-7-2-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-16-15
his 13 in the wings 6-7(BI) 7-6 (SP) suggest 10f limit if it was 7-6 and 6-7 with the B and P higher suggest longer with speed of ground
and his middle Triad the highest at 16 suggest a killer Miler with class to go a distance of ground with that balance of speed and stamina"
Saudi Crown's maiden was on wet/showery, he ran in slop in the Jim Dandy and of course, the Pennsylvania Derby now. I can't help but think he is aided by a wet track. Which is probably unlikely at Santa Anita, so I"m unsure of how he would stretch out there. Until the field is set, knowing the musical chairs that often happens in the BC races, with horses dual entered in more than one race then we don't know til the day before, I can't even make a guess that any of the horses slated for the Classic will show up in the gate. A month out ..... I just can't.
Oh yes indeed and the best wet number going in along with the best everything else according to Bris.
and the fastest out of the gate 4 races in a row now and like you mentioned now the 2 9f races won in the slop.
Reincarnate broke 5th, Scotland 2nd. He loves leaving the gate. Cox keeps him wound and I Like his pedigree
if only somebody else handled him. Still a lot to like.
The reason I like to use 3 year best times to base my variant is because speed figures aren’t reliable from one track to the next. Meaning a figure at Saratoga won’t be an effective source to compare a figure a horse earned at Santa Anita. When Beyer invented figures an entire card of races were on dirt. Today 1/2 are on grass and 1/2 on dirt, and some tracks add tapeta so 3 different surfaces... There aren’t enough races every day to make reliable variants. So I only trust variants made for each individual track. I don’t try to compare figures in today’s race to a figure a horse made at a different track. Now on big race days where there are multiple graded races on the same day you have more races to compare. On top of that you have multiple horses shipping in. Also everyone at the track for the meet races there best runners. So figures earned on these days will be a better barometer across multiple tracks. Another words I’ll compare a figure earned derby day to a figure earned Preakness if the runners are in the Travers. Say for Forte, I trust his figures earned at the Fla derby, Belmont, and Travers day. All big race days at each track. If you look at his figures earned on those days they are consistent. In my book Saudi Crown hasn’t earned a reliable figure because he has yet to race on a big day at premier track. On top of that many of his figures were earned on wet tracks. Which is another factor. All the other horses in the Jim Dandy have raced consistently on big race days. Angle of Empire Oaklawn, Churchill, Belmont. So to me Saudi Crown has figures similar to the runners in the Dandy. High 90’s low 100’s.
Blast from the past 2013 ,29th running of the BC Classic page one past angles for the win By Mucho Macho Man.
Many angles have changed and some haven't. Will Take Charge 2nd, Declaration Of War 3rd.
Some more from 2013 BC Classic pre race. EDIT IS Done fixed a mistake.
since 2012 only one Nasrullah or Non Phalaris Bm Sire Has won the Bc Classic *** Flight Line, Caro 2022
Changing of the Guard ,new era.
21 of 29 winners had Nasrullah or a non-phalris sire for Brood mare sire line.
10 nasrullah,11 non phalaris
On Saturday, June 4, 2022 at 08:35:04 PM PDT,
The Modern Conduit mare profiles utilize a formula similar to Dr. Steve Roman’s Dosage index. The Conduit Mare Profiles try to answer some of the questions posed by the limited stallion dosage indexes. An example is the Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet who has a dosage that predicts speed (14-12-12-0-0) (5.33), but who was able to carry that speed 1 and 1/4 miles. Where did this endurance come from? His conduit mare profile (6-5-1-9-7) (0.75) (12-15-17) offers a hint, with enough female influenced stamina contributions to carry that brilliance over a distance of ground.