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2022 2-year-olds/2023 3-year-olds   Handicapping - HRN Horse-Races.Net

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 354172 views.

From: Wintertrian


smartyslew said...

Historical Beyer numbers for Derby winners is 92 beyer  or higher for 2 yr olds.

I'd like to see more dd on this, i.e, let's EXCEPT Baffert horses since we know he trains 'em like quarters. 

How many horses who won the KY Derby had a 92 or more BSF at 2?
How many horses who won the Belmont had that? 

Also of interest how many who had that fig got injured on the Trail?   you know how they say speed kills....

If anyone has time to do this.....I don't have BSF for last 20 years to refer to  :( 

*a fun summer project*





She is entered in a filly MSW. She has had a couple of starts already, and has not performed well.


From: DogsUp


I've added Kentucky Derby Beyer Speed figs to my Ky Derby Diary..

Hoofnote: The speed figures for Derby day also calculate into it a factor of the track variant.

The fact that the races that day; over a mile and quality Grade runners push the number upwards.

Also on fine track surface conditions, mother nature and track maintenance equipment, the variant will push up the number.

Yet...When it is a soupy track; the variant is still a factor for lifting the number upwards as other races with Graded runners are compared using the surface as a Delta or par as to the aggregate times on the surface.

And a thought that earlier races could be run on wet/drying surface and by 6:45 PM the 1st Saturday in May, the surface has dried and the maintenance crew has an hour and a half to spin some speed magic into the track with equipment and maybe aqua.

²Hoofnote: Maxfield is a free square Saturday, at The Spa.


  • Edited July 30, 2021 8:53 pm  by  DogsUp

From: smartyslew


He was not counting unraced filly born in 2015, Misleading suggesting 100 percent throwing runners

For what ever reason one didn't race, 4 for 5 is the stat.


From: smartyslew


I put that 92 out there to slow people down getting giddy early over 5 and 5.5 furlong 

races, mostly with firsters, it can be a waste of time, I started this thread to help others

that are interested with my data to help them do their own due diligence, I have a list

of  unraced 2 yr olds that are classic prospects , and a list of 2's that have raced, that is 

the weekly list I'm adjusting and adding to on Mondays on here ,its the start and its time

to start heating up ,Its August. No unraced 2's on this weekly list. There is a high percentage

of Derby winners awarded a 92 beyer ran as a 2 yr old. Time has changed ,winners don't 

race at 2.


From: DogsUp


Good catch.. good point 

Typically as you know the sire stats are highlighted as to crop performance.

As for stallions, typically stats are kept for total foals yearly, then those making it to the gate as a race starter and their production stats.

And that mare might certainly not had all win their firster maiden also. Yet she really is off to a good start. Say bred to 5 different stallions..

Playing Pick 4 @ Spa with Essential Q a single and the race following as the 4th leg. 

  • Edited July 31, 2021 2:05 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 45

From: smartyslew


Message 45 this thread has this weeks 2 yr old updated list.

Race 8 Woodbine 7/31 : Victoria Stakes 2 yr olds : 5.5 F (all weather) : On our list

# 6  One Timer  9-5 ML favorite  E 100 in first race,  Trappe Shot/  Blame

Race 12 Gulfstream : Dr Fager Stks : 6 F Dirt : On the list

# 7 Hope In Him  8-5 ML Fav.  E85 in first race   Chitu / Songandaprayer

In reply toRe: msg 60

From: DogsUp


Paid $244

  • Edited July 31, 2021 5:52 pm  by  DogsUp
In reply toRe: msg 61

From: smartyslew


Results from 2 yr old races on message 61

race 8 Woodbine: One Timer on our list finished first today Victoria Stks (AW)

Race 12 at Gulfstream: Hope in him folded up early  and I'll take him from our list.


From: smartyslew


I don't have the phillies races on this list, but your Mtr boys are in these races for 

today as you noted: 2 yr old races today

Saratoga Race 5 (State bred) 6 f dirt

Woodbine Race 2: 6 furlongs  (T)

Gulfstream Race 3 : 7.5 F (T)

Del Mar  Race 2 :5f (t),        race3 :5f dirt