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2021 2 year olds   Handicapping

Started 7/2/21 by smartyslew; 140166 views.
princeofdoc

From: princeofdoc

Apr-29

Great stuff, thanks!

Have you also compared the sire age/crop with Derby winners?

pianot

From: pianot

Apr-29

Agree, Smarty pours out some great info!

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-29

thanks, no, not yet !

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-30

I don't recall, All of a sudden I have that Maga Disease. Maybe somebody can find the time to look it up

before I have Time To do.

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-30

4/29 Derby Smorgasboard :

http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby22-0429-notes.htm

Who will win the 2022 Kentucky Derby?


Epicenter: 14.38%

Messier: 13.07%

Taiba: 11.11%

Zandon: 9.80%

Mo Donegal: 7.84%

Charge It: 7.84%

Tiz the Bomb: 6.54%

White Abarrio: 5.88%

Simplification: 4.58%

Crown Pride: 4.58%

Smile Happy: 3.92%

Early Voting: 2.61%

Cyberknife: 2.61%

Barber Road: 1.96%

Zozos: 1.31%

Pioneer of Medina: 1.31%

Un Ojo: 0.65%

Other: 0.00%

Tawny Port: 0.00%

Summer Is Tomorrow: 0.00%

In Due Time: 0.00%

Happy Jack: 0.00%

Get Out and Vote This Week !!!!

------

http://www.horse-races.net/library/churchill-weather.htm

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-30

For the 2022 Kentucky Derby Field .:  PP= Passing Position
---------
Foal Date  with the Dams age on The Foal Date
and The crop year for the Dam. 43 of 61 derby winners were in The 1st crop to 4th Crop
range. 
                                       
                                       foal age           Dams Age             Dams crop year
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------
Barber Road                         3/18/19                 11                                 6  2 Prince in a PP
Charge IT                      4/3/19              7                          2   RF,2 big Red Girls
Classic Causeway            2/22               16                          8  rf
C-Crown Pride (JPN)       5/4/19              7                          1st  LH Prince
C-N-Cyberknife               3/14                10                         4  Lh Prince
Early Voting P/N              3/7                   7                         3
N-Epicenter                        1/29                 12                           6   rf
Happy Jack                            3/17/19                 10                                3  rf
N In Due Time                        2/19                        4                                1
N-Messier                               3/24                       9                                 3     
Mo Donegal                     4/19                 7                          2
C-N-Pioneer of Medina           2/24                       5                                 1
N-Simplification               2/28                  7                         1
Smile Happy P/N              2/20                13                         4  rf
C-N-Summer Is Tomorrow       4/24                       9                                 3
N-Taiba                            4/13                 8                          2
Tawny Port P/N                        3/21                      10                                4
Tiz The Bomb P/N       
...[Message truncated]
View Full Message
smartyslew

From: smartyslew

Apr-30

Ran The Last Q 25.40 < or faster  in  9f + race  , Tough for a front runner and its been done before.

strong angle for the win. !
------

Mo Donegal 9f, Last Q 23.67 bris late  121  bey spd 96  bris spd  111
Epicenter 9 3/16,  Last Q 24.31 bris late 106,   bey sd 101  bris  102
Early Voting 9f. Last Q  24.37, bris late  111, bey sd  96,  bris  111
Zandon 9f, Q   24.45, bris late  114,  bey sd  98  bris 103
Zozos 9 3/16, Q 24.62 bris late 98, bey sp 98 bris  98
Pioneer Of Medina 9 3/16 Q 24.62 bris late 95, bey sd  bris 96
Taiba 9f Q  24.75  Bris late  109,  bey 102 bris   111
Tiz The Bomb 9f(AW) 24.87 bris late 105   bey sp 94, bris spd 101
--

pianot

From: pianot

Apr-30

Yes angle works. 

smartyslew

From: smartyslew

May-1

Early Voting skipping the Derby is a Big deal, He is ranked number 1 by bris for Prime Power scored at  150.6

Next in line is Simplification now number one  148.2 oh And Messier tied at 148.2 both, Simplification  was 3rd in his last race
lost to White Abarrio next with a score 147.4 , interesting, looks like Bris have Florida Derby and Wood ranked the best preps

by the prime numbers. Mo Donegal 146.7 is next, Smile Happy 146.6, Charge It 146.1 all ranked ahead of Epicenter and Zandon.

Who would of thought > the old scoring subtract 8 points from the Number 1 score.  148.2= 140.2 , anybody lower than 140.2

toss for the win. That's from In Due Time 139.9 and lower . That moves up 3 more within 8 points , that were toss's

with Early Voting  score 150.6, now the 3 Tawny Port 142.1,  , Cyberknife,141.6 and  Skippylongstocking  141.2 didn't make the field.

pianot

From: pianot

May-1

Smarty- you always come up with great data points!

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