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Is it 2020 yet?   America - all of it

Started 11/19/18 by Jenifer (Zarknorph); 33673 views.
Jenifer (Zarknorph)
Host

From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

11/19/18

...because we're already talking about it!

We're 716 days from the next US election. So, naturally, it's all American political pundits are thinking about.

Beyond the raw number of seats gained or lost in Congress, exit polls are a useful tool to understand the mood of American voters at the beginning of the two-year marathon to the presidential election.

The polls are a set of questions that a sample of American voters from across the country are asked as they leave the ballot box. They're not compulsory and they're not definitive.

But it's a snapshot of the shape of the American electorate that can help us understand how the battlelines might be drawn ahead of 2020.

Women are the big story

They're also the biggest headache for Donald Trump going forward into 2020.

Polling analyst at the Washington Post Emily Guskin said the most surprising thing about the midterms was how hard women broke in favour of Democrats — by 19 percentage points.

"Which is the largest margin that they've won by in any other midterm election over time. The last time women went to Democrats at nearly that rate was 1982," Ms Guskin said.

Because women make up a larger share of eligible voters, they carry "disproportionate clout," says Karlyn Bowman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Newhouse Professor of Civic Studies at Tufts University Brian Schaffner says in particular, college-educated white women swung heavily toward Democrats in 2018.

"They've been a pretty consistently Democratic supporting group over the past decades. College-educated white women were voting about 56 per cent for the Democratic candidate in every election from 2008 to 2016," Dr Schaffner said.

"But then in 2018 they went 65 per cent for the Democratic candidate. So that was a significant boost."

What's behind the big shift?

There are plenty of factors. But the biggest? Donald Trump.

"Women in very substantial numbers, and especially women with a college education, they have been moving away, certainly from Donald Trump," Ms Bowman said.

"I think it'd be premature to suggest they're moving away from the Republican Party, but they certainly have moved away from Donald Trump."

Dr Schaffner agrees:

"I think it absolutely is a sort of a reaction to President Trump and his frequent hostility towards women and remarks that he makes," he says.

Now add the big cultural moments we've witnessed since 2016.

The Women's March. The #metoo movement.

"The mobilisation that has happened with the #metoo movement and the Resistance [has] been overwhelmingly led by women, and especially college-educated women," Dr Schaffner said.

It's no surprise that as they've driven more women to the polls, a record number of women were voted into power at these midterms.

Continued...

In reply toRe: msg 1
Jenifer (Zarknorph)
Host

From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

11/19/18

The kids have grown up. And they're voting

As Ms Bowman puts it, "demography isn't destiny." But there is some value to looking at how young voters might shape the future of politics.

Like women, 18-to-39-year-olds showed up in greater numbers than they did in 2014, and the majority of them voted blue.

"Going back in our data to 2008, they had never voted more than 60 per cent for Democrats in house races," Dr Schaffner said.

"This year we have them at 66 per cent going for Democrats. That's also a significant spike in support."

It's impossible to point to a single reason why, but Dr Schaffner speculates that a desire for gun control—sparked by the Parkland High School Shooting—could have something to do with it.

Whether those same young voters will sustain enthusiasm for liberal causes as they age is far from certain. Certain life events—marriage, mortgages, child rearing — can shift a voter's political beliefs.

Ms Bowman will be paying close attention to how race factors into the under-40 voting bloc.

"We're seeing quite a stark white millennial vs minority millennial split, with minority millennials being much more Democratic," she said.

With the US growing more diverse every day, that could be the key to predicting the political divides for the next decade, not just 2020.

Republicans have problems ahead in 2020

Yes, two years is a long time in politics. And an eternity in Donald Trump's America.

But the exit polls should be worrying for Republicans.

"The big story I think overall is that Republicans have some significant weaknesses with groups that are growing," Ms Bowman said.

Those groups, according to Ms Bowman, are:

  • Millennials (now the "largest working generation in the US")
  • Women
  • Minority voters (in particular the Asian vote which "looks very Democratic")

It's not all bad news though. Ms Bowman said Republicans found success in some states among Hispanic voters, and young African-Americans are slightly more independent than their parents, who are traditionally overwhelmingly Democratic.

"They're going to have to do better with [Hispanic voters] in the future if they want to be successful," Ms Bowman said.

And you don't need to look at exit polls very hard to find another major driving force in American politics in 2018 — partisanship.

"I can barely see an issue where partisanship isn't playing a major role," Ms Bowman said.

Those who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 didn't budge in 2018. More than 90 per cent of Americans who voted for Trump at the 2016 presidential election voted for Republicans at these midterms.

The ABC's Washington bureau chief Zoe Daniel put it like this on election night:

"The country remains horribly split as [Trump's] deeper red and rural support consolidates."

For Democrats, the message is clear. Run 2020 like 2018

Which means ignoring President Trump's rhetoric (and tweets).

"If they've learned the right lessons from this election it would be, focus on the issues and let Trump implode on his own," Dr Schaffner said.

Healthcare was the issue Democratic candidates spoke about over and over at the midterms.

It worked, with a majority of voters (41 per cent) identifying it as the top issue facing the country in exit polls.

Crucially, Dr Schaffer said the healthcare issue cut through to midwestern voters who delivered Donald Trump his electoral college victory in 2016.

"Non-college educated whites who went for Trump, a lot of them didn't like the fact Republicans are trying to take away their healthcare in this previous congress," he said.

"[Those voters] who flipped from Obama to Trump, I think Democrats might have won back with that message."

So will the gains Democrats made in 2018 be enough to claim the White House in 2020? Or will Donald Trump win a second term thanks to a similar Electoral College map that gave him victory in 2016?

We've only got to wait 716 days to find out.

Di (amina046)

From: Di (amina046)

11/20/18

Democrats will need to stick to their agenda, healthcare, infrastructure etc. which means working across the aisle. They must be able to show some achievement!.Will there be an echo from the other side? And will they find a "face" for 2020? They need to send Hillary to take a long vacation in Papua or such.

If they go for impeachment they will loose what they gained.

Jenifer (Zarknorph)
Host

From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

11/21/18

I Agree.

If they make the 2020 election all about Trump being an ass, then they will lose.

But I honestly don't know what their policies are other than healthcare.

katiek2

From: katiek2

11/22/18

Neither does anyone else in the US, Jenifer.  I don't really believe they are that hot for healthcare.  They refuse to act in concert with the Senate to try to come up with an answer.  They've already stated they will refuse to consider any option for anything proposed by a minority house member, not just healthcare, anything.  So, unemployment goes back up, wages go back down, no assistance for the vets and homeless,  Nothing for anyone but slaps on the backs of the good ol' boys.

  • Edited November 22, 2018 4:20 am  by  katiek2
Jenifer (Zarknorph)
Host

From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

11/24/18

It's a shame.

They need to get it together and present themselves as a viable alternative.

A lot of women got voted in... that could help them start sorting stuff out.

CzoeMC

From: CzoeMC

12/5/18

I will keep promoting Amy Klobuchar, but I see fine prospects from other states, also.. Amy is GREAT, though...

Amy Klobuchar Is 'Minnesota Nice.' But Is That What Democrats Want for 2020?

The Minnesota senator emerged unscathed from the Kavanaugh hearings, then coasted to a third term. Now she is weighing whether her home state appeal can translate nationally.

  • Edited December 5, 2018 3:16 am  by  CzoeMC
Jenifer (Zarknorph)
Host

From: Jenifer (Zarknorph)

12/31/18

Elizabeth Warren throws her headdress into the ring

US senator Elizabeth Warren, a liberal firebrand who has taken on Wall Street and traded barbs with Donald Trump, has announced she is seeking to challenge the Republican President in 2020.

Key points:

  • Elizabeth Warren has represented Massachusetts in the Senate since 2013
  • She is a high-profile critic of Wall Street and has campaigned for stronger regulation since the GFC
  • The Democrat primaries are expected to attract a strong range of candidates

Senator Warren said she had formed an exploratory committee, which will allow her to begin raising money to compete in what is expected to be a crowded Democratic primary field, before the November 2020 presidential election.

Whether that leads to her actually running for president will be decided in the next few months, she said.

Senator Warren, 69, who has represented Massachusetts since 2013, was one of Mr Trump's fiercest critics during the 2016 presidential race and they have continued to exchange biting insults during his presidency.

He mockingly refers to her as "Pocahontas" because of her claim to Native American ancestry.

Senator Warren has denounced Mr Trump as an "insecure money grubber" with a platform of "racism, sexism and xenophobia" while Mr Trump has described the former Harvard Law School professor as "goofy" and a "low life" with "a nasty mouth".

Several hours after the announcement, Mr Trump had not responded but Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel called Senator Warren "another extreme far-left obstructionist and a total fraud".

On Monday, Senator Warren released a video in which she outlined her vision of a path to opportunity for all Americans, not just the wealthy.

"America's middle class is under attack," she said on the video. "How did we get here? Billionaires and big corporations decided they wanted more of the pie and they enlisted politicians to cut them a fatter slice."

Senator Warren is likely to face a crowded field of Democrats, including senators Kamala Harris, Corey Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, as well as former vice-president Joe Biden.

Former San Antonio mayor Julian Castro — former president Barack Obama's housing secretary — formed an exploratory committee in December.

In searching for a candidate to run against the President, Democrats will grapple with the tension between the party's establishment and progressive wings that flared during the 2016 primary between Hillary Clinton and senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who ran under the Democratic banner.

A Warren candidacy will expect opposition from Wall Street; in the US Senate, she has been a strong voice on financial issues and a self-described defender of the ordinary American against powerful interests.

Advocate for stronger banking regulations

Following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, Senator Warren emerged as a leading critic of Wall Street and continues to advocate for stronger regulation and oversight, including reinstating a rule that would separate banks' retail business from their riskier investment banking activities.

Senator Warren, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, has fought the Trump administration's efforts to weaken post-crisis financial rules.

In a September interview marking 10 years since the financial crisis, she was asked about whether she would break up big banks.

"Oh yeah," she told the New York Times. "Give me a chance."

She also has opposed the administration's efforts to undermine the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, an agency she helped create, and has pressured the Federal Reserve to take a tough line on scandal-hit lender Wells Fargo.

Many of Senator Warren's policy positions have focused on economic inequality. She recently offered legislation calling on the US Government to manufacture generic drugs to reduce their cost.

In 2017 she joined other senators in a proposal to extend the federal Medicare health insurance program for seniors to include everyone.

Crowded field expected for Democrat primaries

Senator Warren will have plenty of competition from women driving the Democratic Party's resurgence as well as liberals and progressives, University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato said.

He said that despite her 80 per cent name recognition, that did not necessarily translate into actual support.

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TheOracle1

From: TheOracle1

1/3/19

I predict that 2020 will arrive 

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