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Do you agree with Biden’s vaccine mandate on 9/9/21?   The Healthy You: Health and Fitness Polls

Started Sep-9 by Showtalk; 13318 views.

It's because you don't know who actually has Covid and is asymptomatic but shedding an invisible cloud of virus all around them like Typhoid Mary.

If people got sick before they became contagious, and everyone infected got sick enough to lie down coughing and take notice, then we wouldn't have a pandemic in the first place.

But since those who have an active case of Covid don't get this bright scarlet red "C" on their forehead, you don't have any way of knowing. So the risk is based on the number of known infected extrapolated to what the most likely asymptomatic head count is at the time.

Same as trying to predict the likelihood of getting a life threatening shrapnel wound when a mortar or artillery shell lands and detonates nearby. There is a nonzero chance all the deadly bits whistle right past and miss. There is another probability, based on your cross section versus the fragmentation size and mass of the bomb casing, of receiving one or more flesh wounds. Then there is another probability of a piece of shrapnel hitting a vital spot which proves fatal.

Same bomb, same shrapnel volume blasted into the air, same kinetic energy, but it is a dice roll.

When you tally up enough battlefield casualties and the kinds of ordnance fired by the enemy and where they landed, you can build up a "millimort" or how many thousandths of a chance of being killed in that firefight, and also a separate "millicasualty" where you survive, but you end up with a Purple Heart, maybe learn to wear a prosthetic leg or arm, or navigate a wheelchair, but alive to go decorate war graves.

It's random probability.

Just like insurance actuarial tables, which are calculated in a similar manner. Those who don't get a lot of traffic tickets or drive drunk are far less likely to end up causing an at-fault accident that will mean the insurance company has to write a ginormous check to someone or their family. And with enough samples, the numbers are quite predictable even if one individual totally beats the odds.

This is why some people who constantly speed and do crazy things in traffic end up skating by without a single accident in 25 years on the road, and someone who does everything the way he's supposed to, ends up T-boning a van full of kids going to church camp because sometimes you just roll snake eyes.

Thus the smart money is to calculate the odds of something happening based on a broad baseline of statistics broken down by activities.

It also can be modeled somewhat based on air flow and air change rates. Notice that the risk factor is much greater for indoor versus outdoor, and the more people there are, the higher the risks. Because if a certain fraction of, say, 100,000 random people who regularly engage in certain lifestyles will test positive for Covid, you can scale this up or down to fit certain situations.

And yes, there might not be anyone in the bar who has Covid - tonight. But there certainly could have been yesterday, or tomorrow, or the one with Covid just picked up a hot date and left 10 minutes before you walked in and sat down. Or you just as easily could have been standing right in front of one who is feeling OK at the moment, but shedding virus like mad and is gonna be doing so for the next 2 weeks.

And you don't know what mutation strain he or she has. So you're taking a gamble with everything. Even without Covid. There might be someone having a psychotic break who is pushing a shopping cart and at that moment his delusions tell him you're the secret lizard person who is going to facilitate enslaving the world and must be neutralized, and he just up and pulls out a katana and runs you through. It's not very likely (far more likely to encounter someone with Covid) but, the odds are definitely non-zero.

Or there is a risk of getting on the subway and some cult picked that day to release Sarin nerve gas.

Or dining at an exclusive restaurant 1,300 feet up over the Lower Manhattan skyline on a bright clear Tuesday morning when a hijacked airliner slams into the building about 15 floors below you, cutting all the elevators and stairwells. The odds are pretty slim, and prior to September 11, 2001, everyone thought the odds were zero.

Then no one thought the buildings would collapse either - but it goes to show that even the most improbable odds, given enough time and a big enough sample size, approaches certainty.

Just like the supervolcano beneath Yellowstone hasn't erupted in a while. But it has left geological evidence it did at about 600k year intervals in the past - and it's been a bit more than that since the last eruption. Will it erupt this year? Probably not. But, enough years and it becomes when rather than if.

And of course people discount the odds when they get away with something for a while and nothing bad happens. Until it does.

Showtalk said:

It seems like no matter what you put in the vax rate is 62%.

It's because that percent is based on the county statistics. If you live right on the borderline area between two counties with different vaccination rates, put in the adjacent county with the lower vax rate and re-run the numbers, then take the average of the two to get a more reaiistic probability.

It also doesn't really take into account the small Gerrymandered enclaves within a county where vaccination rates might be 99%, and other enclaves only a few blocks or so away where vaccination rates might be as low as 20%. If you are in the 99% enclave and never see or encounter those in the 20% enclave, then the 99% figure may be pretty close to reality for you. But if, say, you regularly encounter the 20% enclave members who, say, cut your grass, deliver your food, scrub your toilets, groom your pets, then your risk factor has gone up quite a bit.


From: Showtalk 


That seems to be true here. Some communities have been devastated by Covid while others a few miles away have high vax rates and low Covid.

Yep. It's a patchwork quilt. Covid seems to really devastate two groups - those who due to transportation or other logistical challenges aren't getting vaccinated and also live in close quarters with plenty of others in the same situation, and those who still think Covid is a big hoax and go out and engage in high person to person contact behavior without being vaccinated.

Those who are vaccinated tend to still get it in far greater numbers than we had hoped, but the severity is far less and everyone I know who has gotten it has recovered - even a 66 year old fellow with diabetes who has had complete kidney failure and is on dialysis. Same for several other high risk individuals that check nearly all the boxes for risk of dying from it. Vaccinated, they are still alive and functioning.

Meanwhile, there's those like this lady from somewhere here in Texas who slapped fate in the face with a series of social media posts and rants, also fully into the anti-science, anti-vax Flavor-Aid drinking, and fate came back and bit her hard. She probably never thought the legacy of her life would be memorialized like this:
(linked from next source)

(which was linked from the following article)


This is what those stories make me think of.



From: Showtalk 


That is mean, though. Herman Cain died of cancer, as did Colin Powell.

Showtalk said:

Herman Cain died of cancer, as did Colin Powell.

Which means they died "with Covid" as a co-morbidity due to other risk factors, as opposed to being very healthy and getting Covid and dying "from Covid".

Battling advanced cancer already does put one with one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel. It's not surprising that Covid can easily push them in.

Still, I think the "award" got his name because Cain had railed against vaccination, and the average Joe Sixpack tends to think in sound bites and not nuances.  There is an article I found earlier


This push to revel in schadenfreude, and to assign collective blame, is understandable. But it's not psychologically healthy. ... With many regions in the United States still struggling to control this plague, attention has not surprisingly focused on the minority of Americans who have, for various reasons, refused to get vaccinated. A dark and sardonic corner of the internet, the r/HermanCainAward subreddit captures the rage and outrage of presumably vaccinated, mask-wearing individuals, many of whom have either been infected with Covid-19 in the past or have watched friends and family become ill — and even die. ... This push to revel in schadenfreude, and to assign collective blame, is understandable and more than a little expected, especially on the internet. But this so-called award also captures the collective loss of empathy that colors so many of our political and personal conversations right now. Like soldiers who have been trained to see their enemies as less than human, we have forgotten that those who disagree with us are, despite everything, still people. ...

Psychology has a name for the phenomenon that occurs when we see any single person or group of people as all good or all bad. It’s called splitting, and it is often an attempt to make ourselves feel less vulnerable ... So if the goal of these commenters is to express fury or get revenge, they seem to be succeeding — at least if the subreddit's popularity is any indication. But if the goal is to change behavior, we need to do some more thinking. Some of the anti-vaxxers are, of course, simply misinformed, frightened or both. Much worse, however, are the ones who are old-fashioned bullies. ...  ...Ultimately, the Herman Cain Award fulfills a primal wish to say, "I told you so." And it is a foreseeable internet response to feeling powerless in the face of a dangerous, vocal minority. But dehumanizing one another will not heal the split between anti-vaxxers and mask-wearers, or between the political right and left. Many of the stories on Reddit describe the sadness, confusion and pain of individuals who realized they were dying. Turning them into demons who “got what they deserved” could reinforce the hatred that is already dividing families, communities and really our entire country. And that divide could ultimately turn us all into soldiers, fighting a war that we will all lose.


From: Showtalk 


People who died after vaccination probably have similar feelings.

They could have. But those numbers are so few, compared to the Covid cases. I can think of only 2 or 3 and none of them anywhere around here.

I don't know of anyone within at least 4 or 5 degrees of separation who had a severe vaccine reaction, but know of about a dozen within only 2 to 3 degrees of separation who died of Covid.