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No wonder climate models are so crappy   Futility Folder:Politics

Started Jun-28 by ken1putt (kenoneputt); 333 views.

For years, the biologist in me has been certain that the models used to make people think we're all going to die from climate change can't possibly be any more accurate than the methods my real biologist compatriots used to manage wildlife.

IOW, it's impossible, IMPOSSIBLE, to predict natural processes very far in advance.  There are simply too many variables. And some of them we either don't know about, don't understand, or can't measure with any accuracy.

Climate scientists telling me that the world is going to be under water, and that there will be mass extinctions 50 or 100 years from now fall on my ears just like economists' predictions for the future.

In that vein, here's an interesting article that features real science, not tinfoil hat stuff, where they think one factor might cause either warming or cooling.  https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/clouds-throw-curveball-at-scientists-trying-to-predict-climate/766175

And they aren't sure why.

When you can predict next week's weather, get back to me about what's going to happen at the end of the century.

MikeJA

From: MikeJA

Jun-28

I'm sure nearly every Biden supporter is a true believer.  The big research bucks will continue to flow to the high priests of warming.

It is hard for me to buy into the hysteria when the historical sea level looks like this.  Note the scale is in meters.  So high to low swing is 140 meters which is 450 feet.  The sea levels have swung 450 feet in the past, and we are supposed to worry about a couple centimeters??? It is not my fault people were stupid enough to buy beach front property on a moving beach.

j (Dustdevil8)

From: j (Dustdevil8)

Jun-28

Even our former President bought a beach house.

In reply toRe: msg 4
MikeJA

From: MikeJA

Jun-28

Amazon is a true believer.

Big Tech giant Amazon.com Inc. bought the naming rights to Seattle, Washington’s KeyArena, “the new home for the city’s expansion hockey team and the WNBA’s Seattle Storm,” Bloomberg News reported June 25. The venue will be given the cringe name “Climate Pledge Arena,” in a “nod to Amazon’s push to get companies to have net-zero carbon emissions by 2040.”

j (Dustdevil8)

From: j (Dustdevil8)

Jun-28

I agree. I've always felt that if they were really serious about the whole thing, we should pump the lion's share of funding into climate modeling. Prove you can predict what will happen next week, people might believe you about what might happen over the next 100 years.

To put it in legal terms, different court cases require different levels of proof preponderance, beyond reasonable doubt, etc. You could say the Earth is warming and people will say, "Sure, ok". But if you say, "The Earth is warming and we want you to completely change your way of living and spend $100 trillion to fix the problem", you better come with more than an incomplete model.

That coupled with some wrong more extreme predictions that have been made already, people aren't just going to take your word for it.

I get it. The stakes are high. If some scientists are right, God help us. But we've got to find more definitive proof that we can make correct predictions and actually understand what's going on before everyone gets on board.

myblackdog

From: myblackdog

Jun-30

Do you have a link to that graph? I'd like to look at that..

Tom0956i

From: Tom0956i

Jun-30

I've heard it said and I believe there's alot of truth in this...if anyone is serious about man-made Climate Change then they should be all in for nucular energy.

myblackdog said...

 

Do you have a link to that graph? I'd like to look at that..

 

https://www.sealevels.org/

Home page is last 1,000 years. Click the upper left icon to change to last 800,000 years.

Nifty part is you can click-hold and drag to select any time frame you want and it will zoom to that time frame.

If you zoom to the last 24,000 years, you can see the sea levels were -430 feet and have been on a steady rise for 23,000 years, (the entire history of mankind!).  So stories of flood events would be expected.  And that island atoll nation?  9,000 years ago, it was 100 feet above see level.  Nature is stealing their atoll, not man.

In reply toRe: msg 9
Boomslang (DaveP8)

From: Boomslang (DaveP8)

Jul-1

Should we be more concerned about oxygen levels?

 

Dave P

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