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Some Trump experts - herd immunity   Futility Folder:Politics

Started Oct-14 by BOGEYSBGONE; 3054 views.
BOGEYSBGONE

From: BOGEYSBGONE

Oct-14

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/experts-covid-19-herd-immunity-strategy-could-lead-to-overwhelming-death-and-devastation-183450443.html

Matt - it gives at least some insight into what they were considering.   It does not surprise me - as I've said from the beginning - they aren't going to try this as their first choice.  Maybe it may become necessary (b/c we can't simply stay locked up) - but it wasn't going to be our first choice.

It's what POTUS was thinking; and what the governors (who are technically the ones with the responsibility to open/close their states) were thinking.

Robb

Protect the old and vulnerable like Sweden did. That is the only demographic where CV is more lethal than normal flu. Fuck the so called experts. Trump permanently destroyed a lot of lives and businesses by listening to the fucking experts.
BOGEYSBGONE

From: BOGEYSBGONE

Oct-14

yotsubishi (ToraMori) said...

Protect the old and vulnerable like Sweden did. That is the only demographic where CV is more lethal than normal flu. Fuck the so called experts. Trump permanently destroyed a lot of lives and businesses by listening to the fucking experts.

I agree it's disappointing - but I wanted to at least post it to give a different point of view - albeit the same conclusion.  Small solace I'm sure - but at least they did consider it.   It would have been different result - perhaps if those scientists were louder or more endeared to Trump.

But you have to admit - it's a significant risk.   I think that if politicians have to make the decisions - they aren't going to take such a big risk as their first-choice.  I am not happy that I'm right.  I've said all along the confidence of people needs to be supported by treatments/therapies/cures - before we get back to normal.  That's science - and it moves as fast as its slowest component allows.

Robb

"Back of the envelope."  

Fuck that.

We now know that the virus was here all over the country months before we knew it.  My "back of the envelope" calculation is that the current infection rate is closer to 50% that is it to 5%.

We may never know the facts.

OK Karen.

I'm done arguing this since I have been proven right on all accounts since forever.

And it only invoked common sense and not my expertise. If you have common sense.

OldApexII

From: OldApexII

Oct-15

yotsubishi (ToraMori) said...

 

OK Karen.

I'm done arguing this since I have been proven right on all accounts since forever.

And it only invoked common sense and not my expertise. If you have common sense.

 

I happen to agree with you on Covid, but not in the manner in which you expressed this. It's awfully close to being a dick. Can't you lighten up a bit?

Charlie6D

From: Charlie6D

Oct-15

ken1putt (kenoneputt) said...

 

"Back of the envelope."  

Fuck that.

We now know that the virus was here all over the country months before we knew it.  My "back of the envelope" calculation is that the current infection rate is closer to 50% that is it to 5%.

We may never know the facts.

 

 

I agree with that.  If we consider how easily spread this virus is and how many people show little or no symptoms at all even when they have the virus and presumably are contagious, then this virus MUST be much more widely spread than the "experts" are saying.

I wouldn't be surprised if the infection rate was OVER 50% today.  I think that the Covid-19 is of little serious danger to the overwhelming majority of people UNLESS they have some serious comorbidity issues.  Actually, this is pretty much what the experts have been saying all along, but the media and the "Nervous Nellies" in our society can focus only on the tiny percentage who have serious outcomes from contracting the disease.  

Charlie-----------------------------------------------------------------

BOGEYSBGONE

From: BOGEYSBGONE

Oct-15

yotsubishi (ToraMori) said...

 

OK Karen.

I'm done arguing this since I have been proven right on all accounts since forever.

And it only invoked common sense and not my expertise. If you have common sense.

 

Dude - grow up.  I'm only explaining why we followed this as a country.   I didn't enact the policy. 

You're not right at all.  You only have some validation from experts who did get to influence the POTUS.  You were worried before that nobody who thought like you had any influence - and I posted it to show you that they did.

But he didn't listen to them either.

And you're not right either - since we never tried herd immunity.   B/c the risk is too great.  So you can't claim victory for something that wasn't tried.  :)

 

Robb

AFH2020

From: AFH2020

Oct-15

Would be easy enough to tell with random antibody testing in several different population subsets. Would give clear indication of disease incidence, and I readily doubt it is anywhere near 50%. And if you think this has serious effects only in a "tiny percentage" or only in those with underlying conditions, then you really haven't been paying attention.

In reply toRe: msg 9
BOGEYSBGONE

From: BOGEYSBGONE

Oct-15

IMO - Mr. Trump's reelection is going to be based in large part - on how well he fixed the corona virus.

In a word - did the US public buy into the solution he was selling?   For a lot of folks the answer is no.  To put it another way - if the answer was "yes" I think that Joe Biden would concede.   B/c the answer is "no" - Biden has a chance - maybe even a good one.

The level of discussion here on GEA is limited to about 30 people who are probably above-average intelligence and education than most of the US public. 

What we talk about simply is irrelevant - unless any of us are in a position to influence POTUS.   I was among a minion - but I have called, written, and discussed this ad nauseum with people in the administration - and at the end of the day - POTUS had all the information we have - and came to a different decision about the national-strategy.    That may cost him the POTUS.

Herd Immunity IMO - is simply too risky as a first step.

Read that again.

And again.

But we are now past the first step.  We need to do more (and we have been).

To put any of you "experts" on the spot - do you think that Mr. Biden will solve this Covid crisis faster? and better?   That's 2 questions - not just one.

3rd question:  Why?

 

That is exactly the issue for most voters.  They are unhappy that Covid is still so apparently debilitating.  They blame Mr. Trump for not fixing it.  They think that changing Mr. Trump will be a good punishment for his failure to act properly.   And they think that Mr. Biden will be the answer to their prayers.    Except I doubt he will solve Covid any faster - in fact I believe it will probably be slower because the experts aren't going to change -they are all career folks, not politicals.  Maybe Mr. Biden will listen to the "Toramori's" of the world.   I think he will do whatever his advisors tell him to do - which will be to continue to empower government - and weaken its citizens (and increase their dependence on government).  

And this is all I'm thinking about - and resurgences are starting to flare up.

Personally I'm rooting for science to hurry the heck up.  We need a reliable and available treatment(S) (to reduce the worst symptoms of Covid); therapies (which is a regimen/course of action of treatments); or cure (not likely even with a vaccine) - to raise people's confidence that they can get Covid but survive.   That's when we  will have a chance at being "normal". 

"Normal" IMO will always be different.   But until we have the confidence as a society  - that when we get Covid we will be able to survive it - "normal" will have to wait.

Robb

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